早在今年夏季美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)從最低點(diǎn)一路回升之時(shí),所謂的“V字型回升”便引發(fā)了熱議。如今的美國(guó)已進(jìn)入隆冬,疫苗雖在陸續(xù)上市卻仍未廣泛鋪開(kāi),美國(guó)人似乎對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方向信心不足,多數(shù)人認(rèn)為情況正變得越來(lái)越糟。
《財(cái)富》和Surveymonkey于11月30日至12月1日期間發(fā)布的一項(xiàng)民意調(diào)查顯示,超過(guò)半數(shù)(54%)美國(guó)人認(rèn)為國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)正在惡化,高于8月時(shí)的52%。
然而,每個(gè)個(gè)體對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的看法各不相同,仍有26%的受訪(fǎng)者認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)正在改善。共和黨人所持觀點(diǎn)與民主黨人形成鮮明對(duì)比:約有50%的共和黨人看好經(jīng)濟(jì)態(tài)勢(shì),這一比例在民主黨人中只占9%。值得注意的是,共和黨人在大選前就普遍對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)持樂(lè)觀態(tài)度,8月31日至9月1日期間調(diào)查中,62%的人認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)會(huì)走好。

在各收入階層中,半數(shù)人都認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)正在走衰。

美國(guó)疫情自爆發(fā)至今已超逾十個(gè)月,各方面經(jīng)濟(jì)悉數(shù)受到沉重打擊,國(guó)內(nèi)悲觀情緒彌漫。
唯一令人欣慰的是,美國(guó)實(shí)際的經(jīng)濟(jì)反彈情況明顯好于經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家及分析師的預(yù)期,零售支出和失業(yè)率等關(guān)鍵數(shù)據(jù)也在繼續(xù)改善,不過(guò)近幾個(gè)月的改善速度明顯放緩。12月4日美國(guó)最新失業(yè)報(bào)告顯示,該國(guó)11月增加了24.5萬(wàn)個(gè)工作崗位,失業(yè)率從6.9%略微降至6.7%。
“復(fù)蘇雖失去了一些源動(dòng)力,但仍在繼續(xù)?!泵绹?guó)銀行經(jīng)濟(jì)主管米歇爾?邁耶近期對(duì)《財(cái)富》表示。
亦有一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家堅(jiān)持認(rèn)為當(dāng)前美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)必須有額外的動(dòng)力推進(jìn)才能免于停滯。若國(guó)會(huì)不能在12月26日出臺(tái)新救助計(jì)劃,屆時(shí)將有約1,300萬(wàn)人無(wú)法繼續(xù)獲得失業(yè)救濟(jì)金,數(shù)百萬(wàn)人可能在明年1月遭到驅(qū)逐。
穆迪(Moody)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家馬克?贊迪接受《財(cái)富》采訪(fǎng)時(shí)強(qiáng)調(diào),“如果救助計(jì)劃破滅,最近失業(yè)報(bào)告無(wú)疑暗示著我們的經(jīng)濟(jì)將開(kāi)始倒退,大量員工再次失業(yè),失業(yè)率將重新回升?!?他認(rèn)為,新一輪經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃的“難產(chǎn)”很有可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)“二次衰退”。
盡管美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)已臨近談判最后期限,但曙光尚未完全到來(lái)。12月5日至10日期間,美國(guó)申請(qǐng)失業(yè)救濟(jì)金人數(shù)由上周的71.6萬(wàn)人次上升至83.5萬(wàn)人次,遠(yuǎn)超預(yù)期。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
《財(cái)富》與Surveymonkey于11月30日至12月1日期間對(duì)2247名美國(guó)成年人進(jìn)行了調(diào)查,容差幅度為±3個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
編譯:陳怡軒
早在今年夏季美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)從最低點(diǎn)一路回升之時(shí),所謂的“V字型回升”便引發(fā)了熱議。如今的美國(guó)已進(jìn)入隆冬,疫苗雖在陸續(xù)上市卻仍未廣泛鋪開(kāi),美國(guó)人似乎對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方向信心不足,多數(shù)人認(rèn)為情況正變得越來(lái)越糟。
《財(cái)富》和Surveymonkey于11月30日至12月1日期間發(fā)布的一項(xiàng)民意調(diào)查顯示,超過(guò)半數(shù)(54%)美國(guó)人認(rèn)為國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)正在惡化,高于8月時(shí)的52%。
然而,每個(gè)個(gè)體對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的看法各不相同,仍有26%的受訪(fǎng)者認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)正在改善。共和黨人所持觀點(diǎn)與民主黨人形成鮮明對(duì)比:約有50%的共和黨人看好經(jīng)濟(jì)態(tài)勢(shì),這一比例在民主黨人中只占9%。值得注意的是,共和黨人在大選前就普遍對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)持樂(lè)觀態(tài)度,8月31日至9月1日期間調(diào)查中,62%的人認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)會(huì)走好。
在各收入階層中,半數(shù)人都認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)正在走衰。
美國(guó)疫情自爆發(fā)至今已超逾十個(gè)月,各方面經(jīng)濟(jì)悉數(shù)受到沉重打擊,國(guó)內(nèi)悲觀情緒彌漫。
唯一令人欣慰的是,美國(guó)實(shí)際的經(jīng)濟(jì)反彈情況明顯好于經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家及分析師的預(yù)期,零售支出和失業(yè)率等關(guān)鍵數(shù)據(jù)也在繼續(xù)改善,不過(guò)近幾個(gè)月的改善速度明顯放緩。12月4日美國(guó)最新失業(yè)報(bào)告顯示,該國(guó)11月增加了24.5萬(wàn)個(gè)工作崗位,失業(yè)率從6.9%略微降至6.7%。
“復(fù)蘇雖失去了一些源動(dòng)力,但仍在繼續(xù)?!泵绹?guó)銀行經(jīng)濟(jì)主管米歇爾?邁耶近期對(duì)《財(cái)富》表示。
亦有一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家堅(jiān)持認(rèn)為當(dāng)前美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)必須有額外的動(dòng)力推進(jìn)才能免于停滯。若國(guó)會(huì)不能在12月26日出臺(tái)新救助計(jì)劃,屆時(shí)將有約1,300萬(wàn)人無(wú)法繼續(xù)獲得失業(yè)救濟(jì)金,數(shù)百萬(wàn)人可能在明年1月遭到驅(qū)逐。
穆迪(Moody)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家馬克?贊迪接受《財(cái)富》采訪(fǎng)時(shí)強(qiáng)調(diào),“如果救助計(jì)劃破滅,最近失業(yè)報(bào)告無(wú)疑暗示著我們的經(jīng)濟(jì)將開(kāi)始倒退,大量員工再次失業(yè),失業(yè)率將重新回升。” 他認(rèn)為,新一輪經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃的“難產(chǎn)”很有可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)“二次衰退”。
盡管美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)已臨近談判最后期限,但曙光尚未完全到來(lái)。12月5日至10日期間,美國(guó)申請(qǐng)失業(yè)救濟(jì)金人數(shù)由上周的71.6萬(wàn)人次上升至83.5萬(wàn)人次,遠(yuǎn)超預(yù)期。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
《財(cái)富》與Surveymonkey于11月30日至12月1日期間對(duì)2247名美國(guó)成年人進(jìn)行了調(diào)查,容差幅度為±3個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
編譯:陳怡軒
There was talk aplenty about a so-called "V-shaped" recovery back in the summer when economic data was skyrocketing off of the lows earlier this year. Now, as the U.S. heads into a winter with a new but not yet widely-distributed vaccine, Americans appear less confident that the economy is heading in the right direction: In fact, the majority think things are getting worse.
According to a recent Fortune-SurveyMonkey poll conducted between Nov. 30 and Dec. 1, over half (54%) believe the current national economic situation is worsening, up from 52% in August.
However, much as the narratives on the economy themselves have been varied, some 26% of Americans polled think the economy is improving. And among those who identify as Republicans and Democrats, the contrast was stark: 50% of Republicans believed the economy was improving, versus only 9% of Democrats. Notably, though, Republicans were much more bullish on the economy before the election, when 62% of those polled between Aug. 31 and Sept. 1 thought the economy was improving.
Among income levels, meanwhile, at least roughly half of all income groups believed the economy was headed down the wrong path.
Nearly ten months into a pandemic that's wreaked havoc on the U.S. economy, it's not hard to understand why many Americans have a gloomy outlook.
To be sure, the economic rebound was better than many economists and analysts expected, and key data points like retail spending and the unemployment rate have continued to improve, albeit at a much slower pace in recent months. The most recent unemployment report on Dec. 4 showed that only 245,000 jobs were added in November, dropping the unemployment rate slightly to 6.7% from 6.9%.
"The recovery has lost some momentum, but it has continued," Michelle Meyer, head of U.S. economics at Bank of America, recently told Fortune.
But at the current juncture, the recovery is starting to stagnate and needs an extra push to continue or risk a further decline, some economists argue. Roughly 13 million people are due to lose pandemic unemployment benefits on Dec. 26 without another relief package to extend them, and millions may be vulnerable to evictions in January.
"If we don’t get that help, [the recent unemployment] report suggests that the economy is going to start backtracking, we're going to start losing jobs, and unemployment will start rising again," Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi recently told Fortune. In fact, he argues without additional relief from Congress, "There’s a pretty good chance this will go down in history as a double-dip recession."
That relief, though, has yet to materialize, even as Congress nears a deadline to pass a bill. And on Dec. 10, weekly jobless claims for the week ending Dec. 5 rose to 835,000 from 716,000 the week prior—higher than anticipated.
Fortune-SurveyMonkey polled 2,247 U.S. adults between Nov. 30 to Dec. 1. The margin of error is 3 percentage points.