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          木材價格上漲232%,市場可能“在未來幾個月失控”

          Lance Lambert
          2021-05-04

          除非房屋建筑和改造旺季結(jié)束,否則需求會持續(xù)旺盛。

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          據(jù)Random Lengths統(tǒng)計,上周,每千板英尺木材的價格漲至史上最高點1,188美元。自新冠疫情爆發(fā)以來,木材價格的漲幅高達232%。

          雖然房屋建筑商和DIY房屋改造用戶可能不想聽到這個消息,但木材價格甚至還可能繼續(xù)大幅上漲。4月26日,每千板英尺2乘4英寸規(guī)格的木材5月期貨合約價格上漲48美元,達到1,420美元。期貨合約價格上漲再次使市場熔斷,導致當天木材交易暫停。為什么木材場和建筑商會支付比市場價格更高的費用?因為木材嚴重短缺令買方感到不安。他們之所以購買高價合約,是為了確保他們已經(jīng)簽署合同的項目能夠獲得需要的木材。

          Fastmarkets RISI的高級經(jīng)濟學家達斯廷·賈爾伯特告訴《財富》雜志:“市場陷入困境。未來幾個月市場可能會失控。”問題的根源是什么?隨著住宅建筑和改造旺季來臨,已經(jīng)極其緊張的木材供應無法滿足持續(xù)增長的需求。

          造成供需不平衡的主要原因是疫情。各州強制執(zhí)行封鎖措施使木材加工場被迫停工,與此同時,在隔離期間無聊的美國人紛紛到家得寶(Home Depot)和勞氏公司(Lowe’s)購買原材料開展手工項目。這導致木材存量急劇減少。之后的情況變得更加糟糕:經(jīng)濟衰退導致的創(chuàng)紀錄的低利率帶動了房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)繁榮。今年3月,新建住房數(shù)量達到2006年以來的最高水平。當然,新建住房需要大量木材,導致供應緊張的情況進一步惡化。

          在供應端,木材產(chǎn)量終于開始反彈,創(chuàng)下13年新高。但這已經(jīng)到了極限。木材加工場產(chǎn)能有限和勞動力不足,意味著供應無法滿足強勁的需求。

          Deacon Lumber公司的首席執(zhí)行官斯廷森·迪恩在4月26日告訴《財富》雜志,木材期貨合約價格暴漲,甚至包括11月的合約,這意味著木材價格在一段時間內(nèi)還會持續(xù)上漲。

          賈爾伯特認為,只有需求降溫,價格才有可能回落。但除非房屋建筑和改造旺季結(jié)束,否則需求會持續(xù)旺盛。簡而言之,未來幾個月,木材價格將依舊高居不下。(財富中文網(wǎng))

          翻譯:劉進龍

          審校:汪皓

          據(jù)Random Lengths統(tǒng)計,上周,每千板英尺木材的價格漲至史上最高點1,188美元。自新冠疫情爆發(fā)以來,木材價格的漲幅高達232%。

          雖然房屋建筑商和DIY房屋改造用戶可能不想聽到這個消息,但木材價格甚至還可能繼續(xù)大幅上漲。4月26日,每千板英尺2乘4英寸規(guī)格的木材5月期貨合約價格上漲48美元,達到1,420美元。期貨合約價格上漲再次使市場熔斷,導致當天木材交易暫停。為什么木材場和建筑商會支付比市場價格更高的費用?因為木材嚴重短缺令買方感到不安。他們之所以購買高價合約,是為了確保他們已經(jīng)簽署合同的項目能夠獲得需要的木材。

          Fastmarkets RISI的高級經(jīng)濟學家達斯廷·賈爾伯特告訴《財富》雜志:“市場陷入困境。未來幾個月市場可能會失控。”問題的根源是什么?隨著住宅建筑和改造旺季來臨,已經(jīng)極其緊張的木材供應無法滿足持續(xù)增長的需求。

          造成供需不平衡的主要原因是疫情。各州強制執(zhí)行封鎖措施使木材加工場被迫停工,與此同時,在隔離期間無聊的美國人紛紛到家得寶(Home Depot)和勞氏公司(Lowe’s)購買原材料開展手工項目。這導致木材存量急劇減少。之后的情況變得更加糟糕:經(jīng)濟衰退導致的創(chuàng)紀錄的低利率帶動了房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)繁榮。今年3月,新建住房數(shù)量達到2006年以來的最高水平。當然,新建住房需要大量木材,導致供應緊張的情況進一步惡化。

          在供應端,木材產(chǎn)量終于開始反彈,創(chuàng)下13年新高。但這已經(jīng)到了極限。木材加工場產(chǎn)能有限和勞動力不足,意味著供應無法滿足強勁的需求。

          Deacon Lumber公司的首席執(zhí)行官斯廷森·迪恩在4月26日告訴《財富》雜志,木材期貨合約價格暴漲,甚至包括11月的合約,這意味著木材價格在一段時間內(nèi)還會持續(xù)上漲。

          賈爾伯特認為,只有需求降溫,價格才有可能回落。但除非房屋建筑和改造旺季結(jié)束,否則需求會持續(xù)旺盛。簡而言之,未來幾個月,木材價格將依舊高居不下。(財富中文網(wǎng))

          翻譯:劉進龍

          審校:汪皓

          Last week the price per thousand board feet of lumber soared to an all-time high of $1,188, according to Random Lengths. Since the onset of the pandemic, lumber has shot up a whopping 232%.

          Home builders and DIYers don't want to hear this, but the ceiling could be higher—maybe even a lot higher. On April 26, the May futures contract price per thousand board feet of two-by-fours jumped $48 to $1,420. That squeeze once again triggered the circuit breakers and caused lumber trading to halt for the day. Why would lumber yards and builders pay above market rates? Severe lumber scarcity has buyers on edge. They're buying the sky-high contracts in order to ensure they'll actually get the lumber they need for projects already under contract.

          "The market is in trouble. It could spiral out of control in the next few months," Dustin Jalbert, senior economist at Fastmarkets RISI, told Fortune. The issue? Supply, which is already backlogged, simply can't catch up as demand continues to grow with the start of the home building and home renovation seasons.

          This supply and demand mismatch is largely a result of the pandemic. At the same time that state-mandated lockdowns caused mills to halt production, bored quarantining Americans were rushing to Home Depot and Lowe’s to buy up materials for do-it-yourself projects. That caused lumber inventory to plummet. It only got worse from there: Recession-induced record-low interest rates caused a housing boom. In March, new housing starts hit their highest levels since 2006. Of course, new homes require a lot of lumber, thus exacerbating the shortage.

          On the supply side, lumber production is finally rebounding: Wood production hit a 13-year high. But that can only do so much. Limited mill capacity combined with labor shortages, mean supply can't catch up to robust demand.

          Stinson Dean, CEO of Deacon Lumber, told Fortune on April 26 that soaring lumber futures contracts, including for months as far away as November, signal that lumber prices will be elevated for quite some time.

          For prices to correct, Jalbert says, demand will need to cool down—something that is unlikely to occur until the home building and renovation seasons are over. Simply put, exuberant lumber prices aren't going anywhere in the next few months.

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