由于上周四上午美國(guó)最新發(fā)布的通脹數(shù)據(jù)高于預(yù)期,美股、黃金和虛擬幣市場(chǎng)都出現(xiàn)了大幅震蕩。
上周四,美國(guó)發(fā)布了今年1月份的消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)(CPI),該指數(shù)也是衡量通脹最可靠的指標(biāo)。而今年1月份的美國(guó)CPI顯示,美國(guó)的通脹已經(jīng)達(dá)到了1982年以來的最高水平。
CPI數(shù)據(jù)顯示,去年以來,美國(guó)的物價(jià)漲幅已經(jīng)超過了7.5%,超出了大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的預(yù)期。雖然如果以月為單位來看,美國(guó)的通脹可能會(huì)顯得相對(duì)溫和一些,而且美國(guó)的通脹可能在幾個(gè)月前就已探頂,但市場(chǎng)卻仍然表現(xiàn)出了恐慌。
“40年來最高通脹”的恐慌心理必然會(huì)造成資本市場(chǎng)的震蕩。現(xiàn)在就讓我們看看美股、黃金和虛擬幣市場(chǎng)分別有哪些反應(yīng)。
股市
美國(guó)三大股指上周四上午齊齊下跌。其中又以以科技股為主的納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)下跌最為嚴(yán)重。在CPI數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)布后,科技股遭到大量拋售,納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)下跌了近2%。道瓊斯和標(biāo)普500指數(shù)也分別下跌了0.3%和0.9%。
在通脹數(shù)據(jù)公布后,股市反應(yīng)最差的就是那些大型科技公司。上周四上午,谷歌母公司Alphabet、蘋果和亞馬遜的股價(jià)均下跌超過1%。
黃金
黃金是一項(xiàng)公認(rèn)的抗通脹資產(chǎn),不過上周四上午,黃金價(jià)格也下跌了0.37%。
人們之所以會(huì)買黃金,就是因?yàn)辄S金的供應(yīng)量有限,在經(jīng)濟(jì)不穩(wěn)定時(shí)期具有優(yōu)良的保值屬性,所以長(zhǎng)期以來人們都相信黃金能對(duì)沖高通脹。但這次金價(jià)的下跌,則可能反映了人們對(duì)美元未來價(jià)值的擔(dān)憂。
不過到了午間收盤時(shí),黃金的對(duì)沖通脹屬性又體現(xiàn)了出來,金價(jià)基本又回升到了原點(diǎn)。
虛擬幣
虛擬幣也是一種具有對(duì)沖通脹屬性的資產(chǎn)。所以在CPI數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)布后,虛擬幣市場(chǎng)也同樣出現(xiàn)了波動(dòng)。比特幣在幾分鐘內(nèi)就下跌了1000美元,以太幣也在當(dāng)天上午下跌了4.5%。不過在幾個(gè)小時(shí)后,比特幣的幣值止跌回升,并且小漲0.8%。
股市熱點(diǎn)
在CPI數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)布后,也有個(gè)別逆勢(shì)上漲的股票。比如迪士尼剛剛發(fā)布了第四季度財(cái)報(bào),盈利數(shù)據(jù)特別可觀,所以上周四上午大漲5%以上。迪士尼在財(cái)報(bào)中預(yù)測(cè),該公司的業(yè)績(jī)和流媒體服務(wù)用戶數(shù)量將持續(xù)強(qiáng)勢(shì)增長(zhǎng)。(而相比之下,迪士尼的主要競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手Netflix上季度的用戶數(shù)則增長(zhǎng)不足,導(dǎo)致其股價(jià)受挫。)
美國(guó)迎來近40年最高通脹的一個(gè)重要原因,是奧密克戎病毒嚴(yán)重影響了全球制造業(yè)和供應(yīng)鏈。美國(guó)1月份的CPI數(shù)據(jù)顯示,美國(guó)的食品、汽油、汽車和房租等價(jià)格普遍上漲,從而加重了普通老百姓的生活負(fù)擔(dān)。
預(yù)計(jì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將很快就今年加息的次數(shù)和幅度做出決定。雖然美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)衡量通脹的指標(biāo)是個(gè)人消費(fèi)支出指數(shù)(Personal Consumption expenditure),而不是CPI,但由于此次的CPI指數(shù)高得令人震驚,它仍然有可能影響美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的決策。
上周四上午,就在CPI數(shù)據(jù)公布后不久,美國(guó)總統(tǒng)拜登發(fā)表聲明,承認(rèn)物價(jià)上漲給普通美國(guó)家庭帶來了壓力。
拜登表示:“我們正在使用所有可用的工具來解決通脹問題。雖然今天美國(guó)人的衣食住行都出現(xiàn)了較大壓力,但現(xiàn)在也有跡象表明,我們將度過眼前的難關(guān)。”
拜登強(qiáng)調(diào),今年1月份的就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)是十分令人鼓舞的,這說明經(jīng)濟(jì)正在緩慢恢復(fù)。他指出,鑒于美國(guó)即將走入低失業(yè)率和工資增長(zhǎng)的正循環(huán),加上一些政策措施即將出臺(tái),美國(guó)的通脹壓力有望很快得到緩解。
“雖然今天的CPI指數(shù)很高,但有專家預(yù)測(cè),到2022年底,美國(guó)的通脹將顯著降低。”他說。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:樸成奎
由于上周四上午美國(guó)最新發(fā)布的通脹數(shù)據(jù)高于預(yù)期,美股、黃金和虛擬幣市場(chǎng)都出現(xiàn)了大幅震蕩。
上周四,美國(guó)發(fā)布了今年1月份的消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)(CPI),該指數(shù)也是衡量通脹最可靠的指標(biāo)。而今年1月份的美國(guó)CPI顯示,美國(guó)的通脹已經(jīng)達(dá)到了1982年以來的最高水平。
CPI數(shù)據(jù)顯示,去年以來,美國(guó)的物價(jià)漲幅已經(jīng)超過了7.5%,超出了大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的預(yù)期。雖然如果以月為單位來看,美國(guó)的通脹可能會(huì)顯得相對(duì)溫和一些,而且美國(guó)的通脹可能在幾個(gè)月前就已探頂,但市場(chǎng)卻仍然表現(xiàn)出了恐慌。
“40年來最高通脹”的恐慌心理必然會(huì)造成資本市場(chǎng)的震蕩。現(xiàn)在就讓我們看看美股、黃金和虛擬幣市場(chǎng)分別有哪些反應(yīng)。
股市
美國(guó)三大股指上周四上午齊齊下跌。其中又以以科技股為主的納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)下跌最為嚴(yán)重。在CPI數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)布后,科技股遭到大量拋售,納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)下跌了近2%。道瓊斯和標(biāo)普500指數(shù)也分別下跌了0.3%和0.9%。
在通脹數(shù)據(jù)公布后,股市反應(yīng)最差的就是那些大型科技公司。上周四上午,谷歌母公司Alphabet、蘋果和亞馬遜的股價(jià)均下跌超過1%。
黃金
黃金是一項(xiàng)公認(rèn)的抗通脹資產(chǎn),不過上周四上午,黃金價(jià)格也下跌了0.37%。
人們之所以會(huì)買黃金,就是因?yàn)辄S金的供應(yīng)量有限,在經(jīng)濟(jì)不穩(wěn)定時(shí)期具有優(yōu)良的保值屬性,所以長(zhǎng)期以來人們都相信黃金能對(duì)沖高通脹。但這次金價(jià)的下跌,則可能反映了人們對(duì)美元未來價(jià)值的擔(dān)憂。
不過到了午間收盤時(shí),黃金的對(duì)沖通脹屬性又體現(xiàn)了出來,金價(jià)基本又回升到了原點(diǎn)。
虛擬幣
虛擬幣也是一種具有對(duì)沖通脹屬性的資產(chǎn)。所以在CPI數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)布后,虛擬幣市場(chǎng)也同樣出現(xiàn)了波動(dòng)。比特幣在幾分鐘內(nèi)就下跌了1000美元,以太幣也在當(dāng)天上午下跌了4.5%。不過在幾個(gè)小時(shí)后,比特幣的幣值止跌回升,并且小漲0.8%。
股市熱點(diǎn)
在CPI數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)布后,也有個(gè)別逆勢(shì)上漲的股票。比如迪士尼剛剛發(fā)布了第四季度財(cái)報(bào),盈利數(shù)據(jù)特別可觀,所以上周四上午大漲5%以上。迪士尼在財(cái)報(bào)中預(yù)測(cè),該公司的業(yè)績(jī)和流媒體服務(wù)用戶數(shù)量將持續(xù)強(qiáng)勢(shì)增長(zhǎng)。(而相比之下,迪士尼的主要競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手Netflix上季度的用戶數(shù)則增長(zhǎng)不足,導(dǎo)致其股價(jià)受挫。)
美國(guó)迎來近40年最高通脹的一個(gè)重要原因,是奧密克戎病毒嚴(yán)重影響了全球制造業(yè)和供應(yīng)鏈。美國(guó)1月份的CPI數(shù)據(jù)顯示,美國(guó)的食品、汽油、汽車和房租等價(jià)格普遍上漲,從而加重了普通老百姓的生活負(fù)擔(dān)。
預(yù)計(jì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將很快就今年加息的次數(shù)和幅度做出決定。雖然美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)衡量通脹的指標(biāo)是個(gè)人消費(fèi)支出指數(shù)(Personal Consumption expenditure),而不是CPI,但由于此次的CPI指數(shù)高得令人震驚,它仍然有可能影響美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的決策。
上周四上午,就在CPI數(shù)據(jù)公布后不久,美國(guó)總統(tǒng)拜登發(fā)表聲明,承認(rèn)物價(jià)上漲給普通美國(guó)家庭帶來了壓力。
拜登表示:“我們正在使用所有可用的工具來解決通脹問題。雖然今天美國(guó)人的衣食住行都出現(xiàn)了較大壓力,但現(xiàn)在也有跡象表明,我們將度過眼前的難關(guān)。”
拜登強(qiáng)調(diào),今年1月份的就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)是十分令人鼓舞的,這說明經(jīng)濟(jì)正在緩慢恢復(fù)。他指出,鑒于美國(guó)即將走入低失業(yè)率和工資增長(zhǎng)的正循環(huán),加上一些政策措施即將出臺(tái),美國(guó)的通脹壓力有望很快得到緩解。
“雖然今天的CPI指數(shù)很高,但有專家預(yù)測(cè),到2022年底,美國(guó)的通脹將顯著降低。”他說。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:樸成奎
Higher-than-expected inflation numbers shook the markets Thursday morning, creating volatility for stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies.
January’s consumer price index, often considered the most reliable measure of inflation, revealed Thursday that inflation in the U.S. is at its highest level since 1982.
Prices have climbed over 7.5% since last year, the CPI showed, a bigger jump than most economists expected. Although the month-to-month inflation rate painted a more muted picture, and it’s likely that inflation peaked months ago, markets are acting spooked.
Here are the major assets that either fell or jumped, sometimes both, as the markets reacted to the worst inflation in 40 years.
Stocks
All three major U.S. stock indexes were down on Thursday morning. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index was the worst hit, down nearly 2% as a flurry of tech stocks sold off following the CPI’s release. The Dow was down 0.3%, and the S&P 500 was down 0.9%.
Mega-cap tech stocks fared the worst after the inflation data came out. Google owner Alphabet, Apple, and Amazon all fell more than 1% Thursday morning.
Gold
Gold, an asset that is often used as a hedge against inflation, also fell in the morning by 0.37%.
Gold has long been considered a safe bet during high inflation, a “hedge,” because of its limited supply and reputation as a safe haven during economic instability. A fall like this likely reflects fears about the future value of the dollar.
By noontime, though, the inflation hedge seemed fully on, with the price per ounce recovering to virtual breakeven.
Crypto
Another supposed inflation hedge, crypto, also fluctuated after the CPI report was released. Bitcoin dropped by $1,000 per token in minutes, and Ethereum fell by 4.5% in the morning. In the hours after the initial release, however, Bitcoin rallied and was able to turn its drop into a 0.8% gain.
Bright spots in stocks
Some stocks, however, surged after the latest inflation numbers. Disney, coming off the heels of an especially profitable fourth-quarter earnings report, saw its stock rise over 5% Thursday morning. In its earnings report, Disney predicted robust growth and a sustained increase in subscribers for its streaming service, avoiding the fate that befell rival Netflix’s low subscriber count and poor earnings report last quarter.
The Omicron variant has disrupted global manufacturing and supply chains, a big reason behind the four-decade high inflation metrics the U.S. has experienced recently. The data reported in this month’s CPI show increases in the price of common goods including food, gas, cars, and rent, putting a burden on the average consumer.
The Fed is expected to make a decision soon on how many times and by how much it intends to hike up interest rates this year to counter inflation. While the Fed uses its own index, Personal Consumption Expenditures, instead of CPI to measure inflation, the eye-watering sums of this month’s CPI are likely to influence the central bank’s decisions.
On Thursday morning, shortly after the CPI’s release, President Biden released a statement acknowledging the distress higher prices were causing American families.
“We have been using every tool at our disposal, and while today is a reminder that Americans’ budgets are being stretched in ways that create real stress at the kitchen table, there are also signs that we will make it through this challenge,” the president said.
Biden highlighted the promising January jobs report as a sign that things were slowly getting back to normal, citing low unemployment and wage growth, and was hopeful that forthcoming policy actions could soon alleviate the pressure.
“While today’s report is elevated, forecasters continue to project inflation easing substantially by the end of 2022,” he said.