華爾街投資者如今正面臨一個(gè)新世界。
俄烏戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)突然爆發(fā)。美國(guó)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的擔(dān)憂(yōu)日益加劇。在收益爆炸式增長(zhǎng)的繁榮期結(jié)束之后,美國(guó)公司陷入混亂,有些公司現(xiàn)在正在努力重新站穩(wěn)腳跟。但這只是冰山一角。
美國(guó)銀行(Bank of America)認(rèn)為,投資者需要充分意識(shí)到,全球正在發(fā)生一系列更深層次的轉(zhuǎn)變。例如,到2030年,全球近四十多個(gè)城市的人口將至少達(dá)到1,000萬(wàn)人,這將加劇對(duì)氣候的威脅。到2050年,65歲及以上人口將增加一倍以上。到2057年,經(jīng)過(guò)多年的出生率下降,全球兒童人口預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到21億人,七年后全球可能將達(dá)到“人口高峰期”。
由美國(guó)銀行主題投資總監(jiān)哈伊姆·以色列領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的分析師團(tuán)隊(duì)在6月8日發(fā)表的一份報(bào)告中寫(xiě)道:“未來(lái)幾年,世界將發(fā)生翻天覆地的變化。不只是全球人口的增長(zhǎng)(或減少),還有人口結(jié)構(gòu)的快速變化?!?/p>
這充分代表了該華爾街銀行所說(shuō)的“變革的世界”,最終必定會(huì)形成“新的世界秩序”,從城市到政治制度當(dāng)然還有公司都將受到影響。那么,投資者該如何應(yīng)對(duì)?美國(guó)銀行提出了一些建議,確切地說(shuō)是推薦了50只股票。下文分析了美國(guó)銀行的報(bào)告中提出的幾個(gè)熱門(mén)主題板塊以及分析師們看好的股票:
與人類(lèi)社會(huì)年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變化有關(guān)的股票
美國(guó)銀行表示,過(guò)去半個(gè)世紀(jì),全世界經(jīng)歷了飛速增長(zhǎng)期,帶動(dòng)全球人口數(shù)量增加了一倍以上。而且人口增長(zhǎng)并未結(jié)束。
據(jù)聯(lián)合國(guó)預(yù)測(cè),到2100年,全球人口很有可能達(dá)到約110億人的最高峰。目前全球人口約為79億人。然而,華盛頓大學(xué)(University of Washington)健康測(cè)量與評(píng)價(jià)中心(Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation)2020年開(kāi)展的一項(xiàng)研究發(fā)現(xiàn),事實(shí)上,全球人口最早可能在2064年達(dá)到最高峰97.2億人。從今天到2064年恰好與1980年至今的時(shí)間相同。
預(yù)期人口減少最主要的原因是全球出生率大幅下降。據(jù)聯(lián)合國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì),人口出生率從1990年每名女性活產(chǎn)新生兒3.2人,2019年下降到2.5人,到2100年可能下降到1.9人左右。因此,美國(guó)銀行預(yù)測(cè)與生育健康福利、輔助生殖服務(wù)、體外受精技術(shù)和計(jì)劃生育有關(guān)的公司,將會(huì)迎來(lái)繁榮的業(yè)務(wù)發(fā)展。以Progyny為例。美國(guó)銀行指出,這家位于紐約的公司向“大型自我保險(xiǎn)雇主”提供生育福利,并且這是美國(guó)同類(lèi)公司中唯一一家上市公司。美國(guó)銀行還重點(diǎn)提到了在中美兩國(guó)提供體外受精等輔助生殖服務(wù)的錦欣生殖(Jinxin Fertility)以及出售嬰兒監(jiān)測(cè)技術(shù)的Owlet。例如,家長(zhǎng)可以在晚上為嬰兒穿上Owlet開(kāi)發(fā)的襪子,用于監(jiān)測(cè)心率。
然而,問(wèn)題不止是兒童數(shù)量不足。還有另外一個(gè)問(wèn)題是,隨著醫(yī)療保健技術(shù)的進(jìn)步、生活習(xí)慣的改善和管理式醫(yī)療護(hù)理的出現(xiàn),人類(lèi)壽命延長(zhǎng)。美國(guó)銀行指出,到2050年,人均預(yù)期壽命將從72.3歲延長(zhǎng)到76.8歲。因此,美國(guó)銀行的分析師認(rèn)為,AMN Healthcare等醫(yī)療人員配置公司的需求將大幅增長(zhǎng),尤其是在整個(gè)行業(yè)面臨勞動(dòng)力不足的情況下。美國(guó)銀行還提到,瑞銀集團(tuán)(UBS)和摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)等傳統(tǒng)跨國(guó)銀行可能正在準(zhǔn)備拿出更大精力服務(wù)所謂的銀發(fā)族,因?yàn)轭A(yù)計(jì)老年客戶(hù)對(duì)于財(cái)富管理服務(wù)將有更大需求。其他受益者還包括保險(xiǎn)公司,如亞洲最大的人壽保險(xiǎn)公司之一友邦保險(xiǎn)(AIA)以及保誠(chéng)集團(tuán)(Prudential plc)等。美國(guó)銀行表示,鑒于亞洲和非洲中產(chǎn)階級(jí)的興起和人口老齡化,保誠(chéng)保險(xiǎn)有機(jī)會(huì)在這兩個(gè)市場(chǎng)擴(kuò)大業(yè)務(wù)。
與城市人口增長(zhǎng)有關(guān)的股票
過(guò)去15年,人類(lèi)社會(huì)一直在圍繞城市持續(xù)融合,雖然新冠疫情為人們遠(yuǎn)程辦公帶來(lái)了新的可能性,但未來(lái)預(yù)計(jì)人們依舊會(huì)向城市聚集。
美國(guó)銀行在報(bào)告中指出,目前全球約55%的人口在城市生活。到2050年,預(yù)計(jì)全球約三分之二人口將生活在城市,其中新增城市人口很大一部分來(lái)自亞洲和非洲。為了應(yīng)對(duì)不斷涌入的新居民,未來(lái)十年城市必定要增加基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施支出。普華永道(PwC)估計(jì),未來(lái)十年全球基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施支出將達(dá)到78萬(wàn)億美元。
美國(guó)銀行建議特別關(guān)注的一只股票是Helios Towers。該公司在非洲和中東擁有并運(yùn)營(yíng)通信信號(hào)塔等基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。美國(guó)銀行提到了越南最大的住宅開(kāi)發(fā)商Vinhomes Joint Stock Company。城市居民收入水平的提高,可能“在已經(jīng)逐漸供應(yīng)不足的越南房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng),推高對(duì)正規(guī)住房的需求”,該公司可能從中受益。美國(guó)銀行表示,在消費(fèi)者領(lǐng)域,城市人口的增加還可能促進(jìn)送餐公司的業(yè)務(wù)增長(zhǎng),例如印度的Zomato和東南亞的Grab等。
美國(guó)銀行提到了美國(guó)的多家庭房地產(chǎn)投資信托公司UDR。該公司在紐約、華盛頓特區(qū)和舊金山等市場(chǎng)經(jīng)營(yíng)公寓。美國(guó)銀行的分析師還認(rèn)為,服務(wù)新一代郊區(qū)居民的公司將迎來(lái)更多商機(jī),例如家得寶(Home Depot)等,因?yàn)椤叭丝趶某鞘邪岬浇紖^(qū)和農(nóng)村市場(chǎng)的長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)被疫情加速?!?/p>
與C世代有關(guān)的股票
想象一下這樣一代人:在他們的記憶中沒(méi)有嚴(yán)重的疫情,不需要開(kāi)車(chē),不再使用現(xiàn)金。如果美國(guó)銀行的預(yù)測(cè)成真,這就是目前最年輕的C世代的未來(lái)。
美國(guó)銀行表示,2016年以后出生的C世代已經(jīng)超過(guò)7億人,到2025年將達(dá)到20億。雖然C世代的規(guī)??赡苄∮谖覀兘?jīng)常說(shuō)的Z世代,但分析師們表示,C世代將成為“在網(wǎng)絡(luò)連接無(wú)處不在的時(shí)代與科技和諧共存”的第一代人。這意味著什么?美國(guó)銀行的分析師寫(xiě)道:“他們將是‘無(wú)現(xiàn)金、無(wú)商店購(gòu)物、無(wú)人駕駛、無(wú)大學(xué)’的一代人,因?yàn)殡S著新的顛覆性技術(shù)的誕生,他們改變了對(duì)金錢(qián)、工作、出行和教育的態(tài)度?!?/p>
分析師們表示:“C世代也將是‘騙過(guò)死神’的第一代人,他們將實(shí)現(xiàn)永生,并生活在凈零排放的世界?!?/p>
我們不知道現(xiàn)在的某個(gè)人是否將獲得永生。但對(duì)于投資者,美國(guó)銀行確實(shí)已經(jīng)看到一些公司有望成為未來(lái)社會(huì)的支柱。例如大力開(kāi)發(fā)沉浸式數(shù)字世界元宇宙的視頻游戲公司Roblox,希望成為下一代互聯(lián)網(wǎng)門(mén)戶(hù)的美國(guó)領(lǐng)先的加密貨幣交易平臺(tái)Coinbase,甚至還有已有98年歷史的華特迪士尼公司(Walt Disney Co.)。美國(guó)銀行的分析師認(rèn)為,迪士尼有潛力成為“元宇宙的一個(gè)關(guān)鍵利益相關(guān)者,無(wú)論未來(lái)這個(gè)新興領(lǐng)域?qū)⑷绾窝葑??!?/p>
分析師們寫(xiě)道:“我們認(rèn)為‘內(nèi)容為王’,內(nèi)容/IP將成為吸引消費(fèi)者接受這些新虛擬空間的關(guān)鍵賣(mài)點(diǎn)。[迪士尼]將占據(jù)優(yōu)勢(shì),可以利用其大量標(biāo)志性人物形象和IP,幫助創(chuàng)建這些新虛擬世界?!?/p>
以下是美國(guó)銀行認(rèn)為將從全球人口結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)變中受益的50只股票:
? 德科集團(tuán)(Adecco)
? Aedifica
? 友邦保險(xiǎn)控股有限公司(AIA Group Limited)
? Airtel Africa Limited
? AMN Healthcare
? Amundi SA
? ASGN Inc.
? 蒙特利爾銀行(Bank of Montreal)
? 必得維斯特集團(tuán)(Bidvest Group)
? Block Inc.
? Cofinimmo
? Coinbase Global Inc.
? 美國(guó)霍頓公司(D.R. Horton Inc.)
? Fiverr
? GetNinjas
? Grab Holdings
? Helios Towers PLC
? 豪洛捷公司(Hologic Inc.)
? IDP教育集團(tuán)(IDP Education)
? 錦欣生殖醫(yī)療集團(tuán)有限公司
? 摩根大通集團(tuán)
? LEG Immobilien
? 路易威登(LVMH)
? 馬山集團(tuán)(Masan Group)
? Mr Price
? MTN集團(tuán)(MTN Group)
? Nihon M&A Center
? 歐加隆(Organon)
? Owlet Inc.
? Progyny Inc.
? 保誠(chéng)集團(tuán)
? 信實(shí)工業(yè)(Reliance Industries)
? 歷峰集團(tuán)(Richemont)
? Roblox Corp.
? 冬海集團(tuán)(Sea Limited)
? Shoprite
? SMS
? Teleperformance SE
? 家得寶
? Torrid Inc.
? Trupanion
? 瑞銀集團(tuán)
? UDR Inc.
? Upwork Inc.
? 維多利亞的秘密(Victoria's Secret & Co.)
? Vinhomes Joint Stock Company
? Vonovia SE
? 華特迪士尼公司
? Welltower
? Zomato Limited(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
華爾街投資者如今正面臨一個(gè)新世界。
俄烏戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)突然爆發(fā)。美國(guó)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的擔(dān)憂(yōu)日益加劇。在收益爆炸式增長(zhǎng)的繁榮期結(jié)束之后,美國(guó)公司陷入混亂,有些公司現(xiàn)在正在努力重新站穩(wěn)腳跟。但這只是冰山一角。
美國(guó)銀行(Bank of America)認(rèn)為,投資者需要充分意識(shí)到,全球正在發(fā)生一系列更深層次的轉(zhuǎn)變。例如,到2030年,全球近四十多個(gè)城市的人口將至少達(dá)到1,000萬(wàn)人,這將加劇對(duì)氣候的威脅。到2050年,65歲及以上人口將增加一倍以上。到2057年,經(jīng)過(guò)多年的出生率下降,全球兒童人口預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到21億人,七年后全球可能將達(dá)到“人口高峰期”。
由美國(guó)銀行主題投資總監(jiān)哈伊姆·以色列領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的分析師團(tuán)隊(duì)在6月8日發(fā)表的一份報(bào)告中寫(xiě)道:“未來(lái)幾年,世界將發(fā)生翻天覆地的變化。不只是全球人口的增長(zhǎng)(或減少),還有人口結(jié)構(gòu)的快速變化。”
這充分代表了該華爾街銀行所說(shuō)的“變革的世界”,最終必定會(huì)形成“新的世界秩序”,從城市到政治制度當(dāng)然還有公司都將受到影響。那么,投資者該如何應(yīng)對(duì)?美國(guó)銀行提出了一些建議,確切地說(shuō)是推薦了50只股票。下文分析了美國(guó)銀行的報(bào)告中提出的幾個(gè)熱門(mén)主題板塊以及分析師們看好的股票:
與人類(lèi)社會(huì)年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變化有關(guān)的股票
美國(guó)銀行表示,過(guò)去半個(gè)世紀(jì),全世界經(jīng)歷了飛速增長(zhǎng)期,帶動(dòng)全球人口數(shù)量增加了一倍以上。而且人口增長(zhǎng)并未結(jié)束。
據(jù)聯(lián)合國(guó)預(yù)測(cè),到2100年,全球人口很有可能達(dá)到約110億人的最高峰。目前全球人口約為79億人。然而,華盛頓大學(xué)(University of Washington)健康測(cè)量與評(píng)價(jià)中心(Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation)2020年開(kāi)展的一項(xiàng)研究發(fā)現(xiàn),事實(shí)上,全球人口最早可能在2064年達(dá)到最高峰97.2億人。從今天到2064年恰好與1980年至今的時(shí)間相同。
預(yù)期人口減少最主要的原因是全球出生率大幅下降。據(jù)聯(lián)合國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì),人口出生率從1990年每名女性活產(chǎn)新生兒3.2人,2019年下降到2.5人,到2100年可能下降到1.9人左右。因此,美國(guó)銀行預(yù)測(cè)與生育健康福利、輔助生殖服務(wù)、體外受精技術(shù)和計(jì)劃生育有關(guān)的公司,將會(huì)迎來(lái)繁榮的業(yè)務(wù)發(fā)展。以Progyny為例。美國(guó)銀行指出,這家位于紐約的公司向“大型自我保險(xiǎn)雇主”提供生育福利,并且這是美國(guó)同類(lèi)公司中唯一一家上市公司。美國(guó)銀行還重點(diǎn)提到了在中美兩國(guó)提供體外受精等輔助生殖服務(wù)的錦欣生殖(Jinxin Fertility)以及出售嬰兒監(jiān)測(cè)技術(shù)的Owlet。例如,家長(zhǎng)可以在晚上為嬰兒穿上Owlet開(kāi)發(fā)的襪子,用于監(jiān)測(cè)心率。
然而,問(wèn)題不止是兒童數(shù)量不足。還有另外一個(gè)問(wèn)題是,隨著醫(yī)療保健技術(shù)的進(jìn)步、生活習(xí)慣的改善和管理式醫(yī)療護(hù)理的出現(xiàn),人類(lèi)壽命延長(zhǎng)。美國(guó)銀行指出,到2050年,人均預(yù)期壽命將從72.3歲延長(zhǎng)到76.8歲。因此,美國(guó)銀行的分析師認(rèn)為,AMN Healthcare等醫(yī)療人員配置公司的需求將大幅增長(zhǎng),尤其是在整個(gè)行業(yè)面臨勞動(dòng)力不足的情況下。美國(guó)銀行還提到,瑞銀集團(tuán)(UBS)和摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)等傳統(tǒng)跨國(guó)銀行可能正在準(zhǔn)備拿出更大精力服務(wù)所謂的銀發(fā)族,因?yàn)轭A(yù)計(jì)老年客戶(hù)對(duì)于財(cái)富管理服務(wù)將有更大需求。其他受益者還包括保險(xiǎn)公司,如亞洲最大的人壽保險(xiǎn)公司之一友邦保險(xiǎn)(AIA)以及保誠(chéng)集團(tuán)(Prudential plc)等。美國(guó)銀行表示,鑒于亞洲和非洲中產(chǎn)階級(jí)的興起和人口老齡化,保誠(chéng)保險(xiǎn)有機(jī)會(huì)在這兩個(gè)市場(chǎng)擴(kuò)大業(yè)務(wù)。
與城市人口增長(zhǎng)有關(guān)的股票
過(guò)去15年,人類(lèi)社會(huì)一直在圍繞城市持續(xù)融合,雖然新冠疫情為人們遠(yuǎn)程辦公帶來(lái)了新的可能性,但未來(lái)預(yù)計(jì)人們依舊會(huì)向城市聚集。
美國(guó)銀行在報(bào)告中指出,目前全球約55%的人口在城市生活。到2050年,預(yù)計(jì)全球約三分之二人口將生活在城市,其中新增城市人口很大一部分來(lái)自亞洲和非洲。為了應(yīng)對(duì)不斷涌入的新居民,未來(lái)十年城市必定要增加基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施支出。普華永道(PwC)估計(jì),未來(lái)十年全球基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施支出將達(dá)到78萬(wàn)億美元。
美國(guó)銀行建議特別關(guān)注的一只股票是Helios Towers。該公司在非洲和中東擁有并運(yùn)營(yíng)通信信號(hào)塔等基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。美國(guó)銀行提到了越南最大的住宅開(kāi)發(fā)商Vinhomes Joint Stock Company。城市居民收入水平的提高,可能“在已經(jīng)逐漸供應(yīng)不足的越南房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng),推高對(duì)正規(guī)住房的需求”,該公司可能從中受益。美國(guó)銀行表示,在消費(fèi)者領(lǐng)域,城市人口的增加還可能促進(jìn)送餐公司的業(yè)務(wù)增長(zhǎng),例如印度的Zomato和東南亞的Grab等。
美國(guó)銀行提到了美國(guó)的多家庭房地產(chǎn)投資信托公司UDR。該公司在紐約、華盛頓特區(qū)和舊金山等市場(chǎng)經(jīng)營(yíng)公寓。美國(guó)銀行的分析師還認(rèn)為,服務(wù)新一代郊區(qū)居民的公司將迎來(lái)更多商機(jī),例如家得寶(Home Depot)等,因?yàn)椤叭丝趶某鞘邪岬浇紖^(qū)和農(nóng)村市場(chǎng)的長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)被疫情加速?!?/p>
與C世代有關(guān)的股票
想象一下這樣一代人:在他們的記憶中沒(méi)有嚴(yán)重的疫情,不需要開(kāi)車(chē),不再使用現(xiàn)金。如果美國(guó)銀行的預(yù)測(cè)成真,這就是目前最年輕的C世代的未來(lái)。
美國(guó)銀行表示,2016年以后出生的C世代已經(jīng)超過(guò)7億人,到2025年將達(dá)到20億。雖然C世代的規(guī)??赡苄∮谖覀兘?jīng)常說(shuō)的Z世代,但分析師們表示,C世代將成為“在網(wǎng)絡(luò)連接無(wú)處不在的時(shí)代與科技和諧共存”的第一代人。這意味著什么?美國(guó)銀行的分析師寫(xiě)道:“他們將是‘無(wú)現(xiàn)金、無(wú)商店購(gòu)物、無(wú)人駕駛、無(wú)大學(xué)’的一代人,因?yàn)殡S著新的顛覆性技術(shù)的誕生,他們改變了對(duì)金錢(qián)、工作、出行和教育的態(tài)度?!?/p>
分析師們表示:“C世代也將是‘騙過(guò)死神’的第一代人,他們將實(shí)現(xiàn)永生,并生活在凈零排放的世界?!?/p>
我們不知道現(xiàn)在的某個(gè)人是否將獲得永生。但對(duì)于投資者,美國(guó)銀行確實(shí)已經(jīng)看到一些公司有望成為未來(lái)社會(huì)的支柱。例如大力開(kāi)發(fā)沉浸式數(shù)字世界元宇宙的視頻游戲公司Roblox,希望成為下一代互聯(lián)網(wǎng)門(mén)戶(hù)的美國(guó)領(lǐng)先的加密貨幣交易平臺(tái)Coinbase,甚至還有已有98年歷史的華特迪士尼公司(Walt Disney Co.)。美國(guó)銀行的分析師認(rèn)為,迪士尼有潛力成為“元宇宙的一個(gè)關(guān)鍵利益相關(guān)者,無(wú)論未來(lái)這個(gè)新興領(lǐng)域?qū)⑷绾窝葑儭!?/p>
分析師們寫(xiě)道:“我們認(rèn)為‘內(nèi)容為王’,內(nèi)容/IP將成為吸引消費(fèi)者接受這些新虛擬空間的關(guān)鍵賣(mài)點(diǎn)。[迪士尼]將占據(jù)優(yōu)勢(shì),可以利用其大量標(biāo)志性人物形象和IP,幫助創(chuàng)建這些新虛擬世界?!?/p>
以下是美國(guó)銀行認(rèn)為將從全球人口結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)變中受益的50只股票:
? 德科集團(tuán)(Adecco)
? Aedifica
? 友邦保險(xiǎn)控股有限公司(AIA Group Limited)
? Airtel Africa Limited
? AMN Healthcare
? Amundi SA
? ASGN Inc.
? 蒙特利爾銀行(Bank of Montreal)
? 必得維斯特集團(tuán)(Bidvest Group)
? Block Inc.
? Cofinimmo
? Coinbase Global Inc.
? 美國(guó)霍頓公司(D.R. Horton Inc.)
? Fiverr
? GetNinjas
? Grab Holdings
? Helios Towers PLC
? 豪洛捷公司(Hologic Inc.)
? IDP教育集團(tuán)(IDP Education)
? 錦欣生殖醫(yī)療集團(tuán)有限公司
? 摩根大通集團(tuán)
? LEG Immobilien
? 路易威登(LVMH)
? 馬山集團(tuán)(Masan Group)
? Mr Price
? MTN集團(tuán)(MTN Group)
? Nihon M&A Center
? 歐加隆(Organon)
? Owlet Inc.
? Progyny Inc.
? 保誠(chéng)集團(tuán)
? 信實(shí)工業(yè)(Reliance Industries)
? 歷峰集團(tuán)(Richemont)
? Roblox Corp.
? 冬海集團(tuán)(Sea Limited)
? Shoprite
? SMS
? Teleperformance SE
? 家得寶
? Torrid Inc.
? Trupanion
? 瑞銀集團(tuán)
? UDR Inc.
? Upwork Inc.
? 維多利亞的秘密(Victoria's Secret & Co.)
? Vinhomes Joint Stock Company
? Vonovia SE
? 華特迪士尼公司
? Welltower
? Zomato Limited(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
Investors across Wall Street are facing a new world today.
War has erupted in Ukraine. Fears of a recession are mounting in the U.S. And corporate America has been sent reeling, with companies now trying to find their footing once again after a gangbusters period where many saw earnings explode. But that’s only part of it.
For Bank of America, there is a series of far deeper shifts taking place globally that investors need to wise up to. By 2030, for one, nearly four dozen cities around the globe will have at least 10 million inhabitants, escalating the threat to the climate. By 2050, there will more than double the count of people who are at least 65 years old. And by 2057, following years of falling fertility rates, the number of children globally is expected to top out at 2.1 billion before the world potentially reaches “peak people” seven years later.
“The world won’t look anything like it does today in years to come,” a group of Bank of America analysts led by head of thematic investing, Haim Israel, wrote in a June 8 report. “And it’s not all about global population growth (or decline)—it’s also about the rapidly changing composition of that population.”
It is all representative of what the Wall Street bank calls a “transforming world,” one that is bound to cause a "new world order" that stands to impact just about everything from cities to political regimes to, of course, companies. So, what’s an investor to do? Well, Bank of America has some ideas—50 to be exact. Here is a breakdown of some of the top themes from Bank of America's note and the stocks that analysts see prospering, as a result:
The stocks for society's coming age shake-up
Over the last half century, the world has been in a period of escalating growth that has led the number of people globally to more than double, according to Bank of America. And the population's expansion is not yet done.
The United Nations has projected that the count of people very may well reach a peak of almost 11 billion by 2100, compared to about 7.9 billion today. However, a 2020 study conducted by researchers from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation found that, in fact, the global population may reach its highest level of 9.72 billion as soon as 2064—the same amount of years from now into the future as 1980 is in the past.
Perhaps the largest driver of the expected decline is a dramatic falloff in the global fertility rate, which, according to the UN, has plunged from 3.2 live births per woman in 1990 to 2.5 in 2019 and, by 2100, should sit at around 1.9. Bank of America, as a result, predicts a boom in business for companies dealing in fertility health benefits, assisted reproductive services, in-vitro fertilization technology, and family planning. Take Progyny, for instance. The New York-based company provides fertility benefits to “l(fā)arge, self-insured employers,” Bank of America notes, adding that it is the only publicly traded company of its type in the U.S. Bank of America also highlighted Jinxin Fertility, the leading provider of assisted reproductive services like in-vitro fertilization in China and the U.S., as well as Owlet, a company that sells infant-monitoring technology like a sock that parents can wrap around their child’s foot at night to monitor their heart rates.
It’s not just that the world isn’t having enough children, though. There’s also the fact that, thanks to advances in healthcare, better lifestyle habits, and managed care, society is getting older. The average life expectancy is set to rise from 72.3 years to 76.8 years by 2050, according to Bank of America. So, in the eyes of Bank of America analysts, healthcare staffing companies such as AMN Healthcare are bound to see a surge of demand, especially at a time when the industry as a whole is suffering from a labor shortage. Bank of America also highlights traditional global banks like UBS and JPMorgan Chase as potentially being primed for more room to run with the so-called greying population, considering the expected need for more wealth management services from older clients. Other benefactors include insurers like AIA, one of the largest life insurers in Asia, and Prudential plc, which Bank of America notes is sitting on an opportunity to expand its sprawl all across Asia and Africa considering the emerging middle-class and older populations in both markets.
The stocks for city watchers
The world has been coalescing around cities for 15 years now, and, while COVID-19 has opened up new possibilities for people to work from anywhere, people are still expected to pile within city limits for the years to come.
About 55% of the global population today lives in a city, Bank of America noted in the report. By 2050, about two-thirds of the global population is expected to be living in cities—with the lion's share of that growth coming from Asia and Africa. For cities to be able to handle the influx of new residents, there is bound to be a massive infrastructure spend in the next decade. PwC estimates that globally it could be as much as $78 trillion.
One stock that Bank of America called attention to in particular was Helios Towers, which owns and operates telecommunication towers and other infrastructure across Africa and the Middle East. In Vietnam, Bank of America says Vinhomes Joint Stock Company, the country's largest residential developer, may also benefit from the rising affluence among citizens, which could drive "an increasing need for formal housing, in a market that is chronically under-supplied." On the consumer-facing side, the push into urban areas, Bank of America wrote, may also be a catalyst for more business for food delivery companies like Zomato of India and Grab in southeast Asia.
In the states, Bank of America called out UDR, a multifamily real estate investment trust, that operates apartments in markets like New York, Washington, D.C., and San Francisco. The bank is also seeing more opportunities for companies that are catering to newly minted suburbanites, such as Home Depot, given the "long-term trend of migration out of urban areas and into suburban and rural markets [that] has been accelerated by the pandemic," the bank's analysts wrote.
The stocks for Gen C
Imagine not remembering the heights of the COVID-19 pandemic, or driving, or using cash. Well, if Bank of America's right, that's the future awaiting the youngest in society today: Gen C.
Born after 2016, Gen C is already 700 million strong and bound to reach 2 billion by 2025, according to the bank. And while that will make it ultimately smaller in size than the oft-discussed Gen Z, the analysts wrote that Gen C is positioned to become the first "to live in harmony with technology amid ubiquitous connectivity." What does that mean? "A 'cashless, shopless, driverless, potentially collegeless' generation, as they change attitudes to money, work, mobility and education in the advent of new disruptive technologies," the Bank of America analysts wrote.
"Also, Gen C could be the first generation to 'cheat death' and achieve immortality and live in a net zero world," they added.
Whether there is a human alive today who will never die, who knows. But, for investors, Bank of America does see some clarity already emerging around companies that are positioning themselves to become pillars in society for future generations. Among them: Roblox, the video gaming company that is making an aggressive push into the immersive digital known as the metaverse, Coinbase, the leading cryptocurrency exchange in the U.S. that is trying to become a gateway to the next iteration of the Internet, and even the 98-year-old Walt Disney Co., which Bank of America analysts wrote has the potential to become "a key stakeholder in the metaverse, however this new emerging area evolves over time."
"It is our view that 'content is king' and content/IP will serve as the key attraction in consumer adoption of these new virtual spaces," the analysts wrote. "[Disney] will likely have an advantaged positioning to capitalize on this with their roster of iconic franchises and IP to help create these new virtual worlds."
Here’s the full list of the 50 stocks that Bank of America sees benefitting from the globe’s ever-shifting demographics:
? Adecco
? Aedifica
? AIA Group Limited
? Airtel Africa Limited
? AMN Healthcare
? Amundi SA
? ASGN Inc.
? Bank of Montreal
? Bidvest Group
? Block Inc.
? Cofinimmo
? Coinbase Global Inc.
? D.R. Horton Inc.
? Fiverr
? GetNinjas
? Grab Holdings
? Helios Towers PLC
? Hologic Inc.
? IDP Education
? Jinxin Fertility Group Limited
? JPMorgan Chase & Co.
? LEG Immobilien
? LVMH
? Masan Group
? Mr Price
? MTN Group
? Nihon M&A Center
? Organon
? Owlet Inc.
? Progyny Inc.
? Prudential PLC
? Reliance Industries
? Richemont
? Roblox Corp.
? Sea Limited
? Shoprite
? SMS
? Teleperformance SE
? The Home Depot Inc.
? Torrid Inc.
? Trupanion
? UBS
? UDR Inc.
? Upwork Inc.
? Victoria's Secret & Co.
? Vinhomes Joint Stock Company
? Vonovia SE
? Walt Disney Co.
? Welltower
? Zomato Limited