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          美國(guó)年輕人買(mǎi)房有多難:為交首付催收“份子錢(qián)”

          SYDNEY LAKE
          2024-01-02

          買(mǎi)房已經(jīng)成了美國(guó)年輕人今年最關(guān)心的問(wèn)題。

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          美國(guó)年輕人買(mǎi)房意愿強(qiáng)烈,奈何難敵購(gòu)房路上“三座大山”。圖片來(lái)源:GETTY IMAGES

          今年的美國(guó)房市也是大起大落的一年。抵押貸款利率和房?jī)r(jià)居高不下,年輕人的買(mǎi)房夢(mèng)變得越來(lái)越渺茫。雖然抵押貸款利率在10月份探頂(8%)后有所回落,但房?jī)r(jià)自1月份起就一直保持漲勢(shì),迫使很多人放棄了買(mǎi)房的念頭。

          美銀研究所在今年12月初指出,買(mǎi)房已經(jīng)成了美國(guó)年輕人今年最關(guān)心的問(wèn)題,60%的年輕人比他們父母年輕的時(shí)候更關(guān)注買(mǎi)房問(wèn)題。不過(guò)光有強(qiáng)烈的買(mǎi)房意愿是不夠的,很多人的購(gòu)房之路都是困難重重,擁有一套自己的房子甚至已經(jīng)成了年輕人的一種奢望。

          橫亙?cè)诿绹?guó)年輕人買(mǎi)房路上的“三座大山”分別是:攢首付難、高按揭利率和高房?jī)r(jià)。而房地產(chǎn)專(zhuān)家們都認(rèn)為,這“三座大山”短期內(nèi)想搬走哪一個(gè)都不容易。

          霍夫斯特拉大學(xué)弗蘭克扎布商學(xué)院教授、房地產(chǎn)金融投資專(zhuān)家安德魯?斯皮勒對(duì)《財(cái)富》表示:“我不知道以后還會(huì)不會(huì)出現(xiàn)年輕人買(mǎi)房的好時(shí)機(jī)了。市場(chǎng)趨勢(shì)一直是對(duì)他們?cè)絹?lái)越不利的。”

          市場(chǎng)形勢(shì)短期難轉(zhuǎn)變

          斯皮勒表示,消費(fèi)者如果只盯著按揭利率和房?jī)r(jià),則對(duì)房市的形勢(shì)走向容易產(chǎn)生片面化的看法。實(shí)際上,市場(chǎng)形勢(shì)發(fā)生實(shí)質(zhì)性變化往往需要一年以上的時(shí)間,因此房市走向至少也得在2024年以后才會(huì)有實(shí)質(zhì)性的變化,而不是在2024年年內(nèi)。

          “我不認(rèn)為2024年是買(mǎi)房的好時(shí)機(jī),最多能比現(xiàn)在的形勢(shì)好一點(diǎn)點(diǎn)。”他說(shuō)。

          斯皮勒指出,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)是在一年半以前才開(kāi)始加息的,這對(duì)于房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)來(lái)說(shuō)“不算一段很長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間”。另外,美國(guó)房市近來(lái)出現(xiàn)了一些反直覺(jué)的現(xiàn)象,因?yàn)榻衲甑陌唇依室呀?jīng)超過(guò)了過(guò)去20年的水平,而且房?jī)r(jià)還在逆勢(shì)上漲。

          “如果利率上漲,房?jī)r(jià)就應(yīng)該下跌,但前提是賣(mài)家想要降低價(jià)格。但現(xiàn)在賣(mài)家的價(jià)格彈性并不大,尤其是從一開(kāi)始就不大,所以賣(mài)家還得需要一段時(shí)間,才能真正對(duì)高利率和買(mǎi)家的負(fù)擔(dān)能力下降做出反應(yīng)。在我看來(lái),一年的時(shí)間在這個(gè)周期中都不算是很長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間。”

          為了買(mǎi)房,年輕人使盡渾身解數(shù)

          2023年,很多美國(guó)年輕人為了買(mǎi)房想盡了各種辦法。有的為了攢首付而搞副業(yè)、做兼職,還有的小兩口在結(jié)婚時(shí)明確要求親友,參加我們的婚禮別帶禮物,就給現(xiàn)金,我們急著交首付呢。

          Zillow home Loans公司的私人理財(cái)專(zhuān)家阿曼達(dá)·彭德?tīng)枌?duì)《財(cái)富》表示,假設(shè)美國(guó)的房?jī)r(jià)中值是35萬(wàn)美元,那么按傳統(tǒng)的首付20%算,一對(duì)夫婦至少也得拿出7萬(wàn)美元來(lái)交首付。“對(duì)于年輕夫婦來(lái)說(shuō),這已經(jīng)是很?chē)樔说囊淮蠊P錢(qián)了。”

          Zillow高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家尼科爾·巴豪德也表示:“雖然當(dāng)前房市對(duì)人們的負(fù)擔(dān)能力提出了很高要求,但很多首次購(gòu)房者都在創(chuàng)造性地解決這個(gè)問(wèn)題。有60%的首次購(gòu)房者的首付款都至少來(lái)自?xún)蓚€(gè)來(lái)源——既有儲(chǔ)蓄,也有親朋好友的份子錢(qián)。”

          比阿特麗斯·德容是洛杉磯貝弗利山莊的一位房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)人,她表示,幾乎所有年輕客戶(hù)在買(mǎi)房時(shí)都離不開(kāi)家庭的資助,有的是父母幫著掏首付,有的是共同申請(qǐng)貸款,還有的是按月幫著還按揭。

          “以前年輕人買(mǎi)房的時(shí)候,家庭的參與是沒(méi)有這么深的。”她說(shuō)。

          在現(xiàn)實(shí)中,還有很多年輕人自己實(shí)在買(mǎi)不起房,只得和父母共同買(mǎi)一套房子。

          “還有很多年輕人在買(mǎi)房時(shí)就表示,他們打算和家人一起住,比如跟父母住在同一套房子里。”

          2024年,美國(guó)年輕人可能還得繼續(xù)在買(mǎi)房問(wèn)題上發(fā)揮創(chuàng)造力。因?yàn)轭A(yù)測(cè)顯示,明年的按揭利率可能還會(huì)保持在6%的區(qū)間。

          “大家不得不現(xiàn)實(shí)地看待自己的負(fù)擔(dān)能力問(wèn)題。”德容說(shuō):“現(xiàn)在很多年輕人到了結(jié)婚和組建家庭的年齡,以現(xiàn)在這么高的房?jī)r(jià)水平,再想像他們的父輩當(dāng)年那樣買(mǎi)一套獨(dú)棟帶兩車(chē)位的別墅肯定是不現(xiàn)實(shí)的,所以很多年輕人都在考慮買(mǎi)一間公寓樓房作為自己的第一套房。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

          譯者:樸成奎

          今年的美國(guó)房市也是大起大落的一年。抵押貸款利率和房?jī)r(jià)居高不下,年輕人的買(mǎi)房夢(mèng)變得越來(lái)越渺茫。雖然抵押貸款利率在10月份探頂(8%)后有所回落,但房?jī)r(jià)自1月份起就一直保持漲勢(shì),迫使很多人放棄了買(mǎi)房的念頭。

          美銀研究所在今年12月初指出,買(mǎi)房已經(jīng)成了美國(guó)年輕人今年最關(guān)心的問(wèn)題,60%的年輕人比他們父母年輕的時(shí)候更關(guān)注買(mǎi)房問(wèn)題。不過(guò)光有強(qiáng)烈的買(mǎi)房意愿是不夠的,很多人的購(gòu)房之路都是困難重重,擁有一套自己的房子甚至已經(jīng)成了年輕人的一種奢望。

          橫亙?cè)诿绹?guó)年輕人買(mǎi)房路上的“三座大山”分別是:攢首付難、高按揭利率和高房?jī)r(jià)。而房地產(chǎn)專(zhuān)家們都認(rèn)為,這“三座大山”短期內(nèi)想搬走哪一個(gè)都不容易。

          霍夫斯特拉大學(xué)弗蘭克扎布商學(xué)院教授、房地產(chǎn)金融投資專(zhuān)家安德魯?斯皮勒對(duì)《財(cái)富》表示:“我不知道以后還會(huì)不會(huì)出現(xiàn)年輕人買(mǎi)房的好時(shí)機(jī)了。市場(chǎng)趨勢(shì)一直是對(duì)他們?cè)絹?lái)越不利的。”

          市場(chǎng)形勢(shì)短期難轉(zhuǎn)變

          斯皮勒表示,消費(fèi)者如果只盯著按揭利率和房?jī)r(jià),則對(duì)房市的形勢(shì)走向容易產(chǎn)生片面化的看法。實(shí)際上,市場(chǎng)形勢(shì)發(fā)生實(shí)質(zhì)性變化往往需要一年以上的時(shí)間,因此房市走向至少也得在2024年以后才會(huì)有實(shí)質(zhì)性的變化,而不是在2024年年內(nèi)。

          “我不認(rèn)為2024年是買(mǎi)房的好時(shí)機(jī),最多能比現(xiàn)在的形勢(shì)好一點(diǎn)點(diǎn)。”他說(shuō)。

          斯皮勒指出,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)是在一年半以前才開(kāi)始加息的,這對(duì)于房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)來(lái)說(shuō)“不算一段很長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間”。另外,美國(guó)房市近來(lái)出現(xiàn)了一些反直覺(jué)的現(xiàn)象,因?yàn)榻衲甑陌唇依室呀?jīng)超過(guò)了過(guò)去20年的水平,而且房?jī)r(jià)還在逆勢(shì)上漲。

          “如果利率上漲,房?jī)r(jià)就應(yīng)該下跌,但前提是賣(mài)家想要降低價(jià)格。但現(xiàn)在賣(mài)家的價(jià)格彈性并不大,尤其是從一開(kāi)始就不大,所以賣(mài)家還得需要一段時(shí)間,才能真正對(duì)高利率和買(mǎi)家的負(fù)擔(dān)能力下降做出反應(yīng)。在我看來(lái),一年的時(shí)間在這個(gè)周期中都不算是很長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間。”

          為了買(mǎi)房,年輕人使盡渾身解數(shù)

          2023年,很多美國(guó)年輕人為了買(mǎi)房想盡了各種辦法。有的為了攢首付而搞副業(yè)、做兼職,還有的小兩口在結(jié)婚時(shí)明確要求親友,參加我們的婚禮別帶禮物,就給現(xiàn)金,我們急著交首付呢。

          Zillow home Loans公司的私人理財(cái)專(zhuān)家阿曼達(dá)·彭德?tīng)枌?duì)《財(cái)富》表示,假設(shè)美國(guó)的房?jī)r(jià)中值是35萬(wàn)美元,那么按傳統(tǒng)的首付20%算,一對(duì)夫婦至少也得拿出7萬(wàn)美元來(lái)交首付。“對(duì)于年輕夫婦來(lái)說(shuō),這已經(jīng)是很?chē)樔说囊淮蠊P錢(qián)了。”

          Zillow高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家尼科爾·巴豪德也表示:“雖然當(dāng)前房市對(duì)人們的負(fù)擔(dān)能力提出了很高要求,但很多首次購(gòu)房者都在創(chuàng)造性地解決這個(gè)問(wèn)題。有60%的首次購(gòu)房者的首付款都至少來(lái)自?xún)蓚€(gè)來(lái)源——既有儲(chǔ)蓄,也有親朋好友的份子錢(qián)。”

          比阿特麗斯·德容是洛杉磯貝弗利山莊的一位房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)人,她表示,幾乎所有年輕客戶(hù)在買(mǎi)房時(shí)都離不開(kāi)家庭的資助,有的是父母幫著掏首付,有的是共同申請(qǐng)貸款,還有的是按月幫著還按揭。

          “以前年輕人買(mǎi)房的時(shí)候,家庭的參與是沒(méi)有這么深的。”她說(shuō)。

          在現(xiàn)實(shí)中,還有很多年輕人自己實(shí)在買(mǎi)不起房,只得和父母共同買(mǎi)一套房子。

          “還有很多年輕人在買(mǎi)房時(shí)就表示,他們打算和家人一起住,比如跟父母住在同一套房子里。”

          2024年,美國(guó)年輕人可能還得繼續(xù)在買(mǎi)房問(wèn)題上發(fā)揮創(chuàng)造力。因?yàn)轭A(yù)測(cè)顯示,明年的按揭利率可能還會(huì)保持在6%的區(qū)間。

          “大家不得不現(xiàn)實(shí)地看待自己的負(fù)擔(dān)能力問(wèn)題。”德容說(shuō):“現(xiàn)在很多年輕人到了結(jié)婚和組建家庭的年齡,以現(xiàn)在這么高的房?jī)r(jià)水平,再想像他們的父輩當(dāng)年那樣買(mǎi)一套獨(dú)棟帶兩車(chē)位的別墅肯定是不現(xiàn)實(shí)的,所以很多年輕人都在考慮買(mǎi)一間公寓樓房作為自己的第一套房。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

          譯者:樸成奎

          It doesn’t seem to matter how badly younger generations want to buy a house—there are too many barriers for many of them to break into the housing market.

          This year’s housing market was full of highs and lows: high mortgage rates and home prices and low morale for younger generations yearning to achieve the American dream. Mortgage rates peaked at 8% in October before retreating somewhat, while home prices have been rising since January, pricing many people out of the real estate market.

          Buying a home has been top of mind for millennials and Gen Zers this year, with about 60% saying they think homeownership is more important than it was during their parents’ generation, Bank of America Institute said in early December. But it doesn’t seem to matter how badly younger generations want to buy a house—there are too many barriers for many of them to break into the housing market.

          The difficulty of saving up for a down payment, relatively elevated mortgage rates, and high home prices top the list of troubles for millennials and Gen Zers. And none of that is getting easier anytime soon, housing experts agree.

          “I don’t know if it’s ever going to be a young person’s good time to buy a home,” Andrew Spieler, a distinguished professor at Hofstra University’s Frank G. Zarb School of Business who focuses on real estate finance and investment, tells Fortune. “The trends have been against them for a long time.”

          Housing market conditions aren’t changing that rapidly

          Consumers tend to oversimplify housing market conditions simply by tracking mortgage rates and home prices, Spieler says. In fact, it takes more than just a year for the market to really change, and therefore any meaningful difference in the current one will happen after 2024, not during.

          “I don’t think it’s going to be a great buying opportunity” in 2024, he says. “It might be marginally better than where it sits right now.”

          The Federal Reserve only started raising interest rates about a year and a half ago, he explains, which isn’t a “l(fā)ong time in real estate.” Plus, housing market conditions are working somewhat counterintuitively right now because mortgage rates this year were higher than in the past two decades and home prices are rising.

          “If interest rates go up, housing prices should go down, but only if the sellers want to lower the price,” Spieler says. “And sellers are not very elastic, especially at the beginning. So it takes a while for sellers to really react to these higher interest rates and the decreased affordability of the buyer. A year, to me, is not even a long time in this cycle.”

          Millennials get creative to afford homes

          In 2023, some would-be millennial and Gen Z homebuyers tried improving their chances of breaking into the housing market. For example, more younger generation buyers are working side gigs in order to save up for a down payment, while others are asking for cash on their wedding registries to cover the cost of buying their first home.

          Assuming a median home price of $350,000, a couple would need to come up with $70,000 for a traditional 20% down payment, which is “a lot of cash and can be very intimidating for young couples looking to buy their first home,” Amanda Pendleton, a personal finance expert at Zillow Home Loans, previously told Fortune.

          “Even though affordability in this housing market is challenging, first-time buyers are getting creative to make it work, with 60% of first-time buyers using at least two sources to finance their down payment—typically savings and gifts from family or friends,” Nicole Bachaud, a senior economist with Zillow, previously told Fortune.

          Beatrice de Jong, a real estate broker associate with the Beverly Hills Estates in Los Angeles, says that nearly all of her younger clients are getting financial help from family in order to buy a home, whether that’s helping with a down payment, cosigning on a loan, or helping with monthly mortgage payments.

          “There’s a lot more family involvement than I’ve ever seen before,” she tells Fortune.

          In fact, housing affordability has proved so challenging for younger generations that some millennials and Gen Zers have had to buy a house with their parents.

          “I also see a lot of the millennial-age-range buyers purchasing homes with the intention of family living with them—like having their parents live in a separate unit, like an ADU [accessory dwelling unit], or maybe in the house with them,” de Jong says.

          The creativity will likely have to continue into 2024 with forecasts showing that mortgage rates will probably stay in the 6% range for the year.

          “People are just being forced into being more realistic about what they can afford,” de Jong says. “A lot of millennials are getting married and starting a family, but they’re probably looking at buying a condo as their first home because the home prices are so high. It’s just not realistic to think you can buy a house that has a two-car garage and the features that were so common growing up in the suburbs.”

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