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          谷歌最新業績超預期,尚未體現出關稅政策的影響

          Alexei Oreskovic
          2025-04-28

          對于當前面臨的經營環境,谷歌三緘其口。

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          Alphabet CEO桑達爾·皮查伊。圖片來源:Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

          如果說美國經濟正在走向衰退,谷歌(Google)尚未感受到寒意。

          或者說,至少在3月31日之前是如此。

          上周四,這家互聯網搜索巨頭公布了強勁的第一季度業績,推動其股價在盤后交易中一度大漲5%,其核心廣告和云業務均實現穩健增長。但這些業績反映的是今年前三個自然月的表現,當時特朗普挑起的全球貿易戰尚未真正打響。

          至于當前面臨的經營環境,谷歌三緘其口。盡管分析師努力了解最新動態,但谷歌母公司Alphabet的高管們在上周四的財報電話會議上對第二季度的經營情況守口如瓶。

          首席商務官菲利普·辛德勒在回應相關詢問時表示:“現在評論還為時過早。”

          他補充道:“我們顯然無法免受宏觀環境的影響,但我們不想對潛在影響妄加揣測。”[辛德勒唯一愿意透露的信息是,希音(Shein)和Temu等中國零售商依賴的所謂“小額包裹關稅豁免”政策被取消,這將給谷歌2025年的廣告業務帶來“輕微阻力”,尤其是來自亞洲零售商的業務。]

          在經歷了數周市場動蕩,以及多重針對谷歌的擔憂后,該公司亮眼的第一季度財報,加上其宣布將每股股息提高1美分并追加700億美元股票回購計劃,這些消息足以讓投資者在上周四歡欣鼓舞。

          谷歌第一季度營收同比增長12%,達到902億美元,超出分析師平均預期的892億美元;每股收益達2.81美元,遠超華爾街預期的2.81美元。公司將業績增長歸功于金融、保險、醫療和零售行業廣告客戶的強勁需求。

          視頻網站YouTube的廣告收入同比增長10%,達到89億美元,谷歌云業務增長28%,營收達到123億美元。

          Alphabet首席執行官桑達爾·皮查伊重點介紹了公司在人工智能領域的進展,包括正在谷歌搜索服務中推廣的“人工智能概覽”功能。他表示每月有15億用戶使用該功能。公司重申了此前宣布的計劃,即今年將斥資750億美元用于云和AI基礎設施的資本支出,這表明該公司依舊看好AI業務的前景。

          谷歌面臨多重風險

          Alphabet正面臨棘手的時期。在上周四財報發布前,公司股價年內已累計下跌約15%,跌幅超過納斯達克指數和標普500指數。

          Alphabet的業務面臨多重風險:特朗普關稅政策引發的經濟不確定性沖擊其核心廣告業務,強大的新AI模型的激增威脅其搜索業務的霸主地位,政府監管機構則試圖拆分這家公司。

          但在上周四的財報電話會議上,高管們對Alphabet面臨的法律訴訟和監管威脅只字未提,轉而強調從快速增長的YouTube訂閱業務到Waymo自動駕駛汽車等各項產品的進展。

          由于Alphabet歷來不在財報電話會議上提供詳細業績指引,這為其回避廣告客戶當前的(而非第一季度的)需求狀況這個關鍵問題提供了掩護。

          鑒于廣告收入約占Alphabet總營收的四分之三,未來數月全球廣告市場的健康狀況至關重要。在經濟下行時期,企業往往最先削減的開支就是廣告和營銷預算,而關稅不確定性令許多經濟學家和投資者擔憂經濟可能陷入衰退。

          若谷歌業務在4月真的急轉直下,公司或許有義務至少發出某種預警。對某些人而言,谷歌的沉默可以被解讀為一種心照不宣的信心宣示。盡管辛德勒回避了有關4月經營狀況的提問,但他提及谷歌在歷次經濟衰退中的經驗,并強調搜索廣告相比其他廣告形式更具韌性。

          辛德勒表示:“退一步來說,我們在駕馭不確定性方面積累了豐富經驗。” (財富中文網)

          譯者:劉進龍

          審校:汪皓

          如果說美國經濟正在走向衰退,谷歌(Google)尚未感受到寒意。

          或者說,至少在3月31日之前是如此。

          上周四,這家互聯網搜索巨頭公布了強勁的第一季度業績,推動其股價在盤后交易中一度大漲5%,其核心廣告和云業務均實現穩健增長。但這些業績反映的是今年前三個自然月的表現,當時特朗普挑起的全球貿易戰尚未真正打響。

          至于當前面臨的經營環境,谷歌三緘其口。盡管分析師努力了解最新動態,但谷歌母公司Alphabet的高管們在上周四的財報電話會議上對第二季度的經營情況守口如瓶。

          首席商務官菲利普·辛德勒在回應相關詢問時表示:“現在評論還為時過早。”

          他補充道:“我們顯然無法免受宏觀環境的影響,但我們不想對潛在影響妄加揣測。”[辛德勒唯一愿意透露的信息是,希音(Shein)和Temu等中國零售商依賴的所謂“小額包裹關稅豁免”政策被取消,這將給谷歌2025年的廣告業務帶來“輕微阻力”,尤其是來自亞洲零售商的業務。]

          在經歷了數周市場動蕩,以及多重針對谷歌的擔憂后,該公司亮眼的第一季度財報,加上其宣布將每股股息提高1美分并追加700億美元股票回購計劃,這些消息足以讓投資者在上周四歡欣鼓舞。

          谷歌第一季度營收同比增長12%,達到902億美元,超出分析師平均預期的892億美元;每股收益達2.81美元,遠超華爾街預期的2.81美元。公司將業績增長歸功于金融、保險、醫療和零售行業廣告客戶的強勁需求。

          視頻網站YouTube的廣告收入同比增長10%,達到89億美元,谷歌云業務增長28%,營收達到123億美元。

          Alphabet首席執行官桑達爾·皮查伊重點介紹了公司在人工智能領域的進展,包括正在谷歌搜索服務中推廣的“人工智能概覽”功能。他表示每月有15億用戶使用該功能。公司重申了此前宣布的計劃,即今年將斥資750億美元用于云和AI基礎設施的資本支出,這表明該公司依舊看好AI業務的前景。

          谷歌面臨多重風險

          Alphabet正面臨棘手的時期。在上周四財報發布前,公司股價年內已累計下跌約15%,跌幅超過納斯達克指數和標普500指數。

          Alphabet的業務面臨多重風險:特朗普關稅政策引發的經濟不確定性沖擊其核心廣告業務,強大的新AI模型的激增威脅其搜索業務的霸主地位,政府監管機構則試圖拆分這家公司。

          但在上周四的財報電話會議上,高管們對Alphabet面臨的法律訴訟和監管威脅只字未提,轉而強調從快速增長的YouTube訂閱業務到Waymo自動駕駛汽車等各項產品的進展。

          由于Alphabet歷來不在財報電話會議上提供詳細業績指引,這為其回避廣告客戶當前的(而非第一季度的)需求狀況這個關鍵問題提供了掩護。

          鑒于廣告收入約占Alphabet總營收的四分之三,未來數月全球廣告市場的健康狀況至關重要。在經濟下行時期,企業往往最先削減的開支就是廣告和營銷預算,而關稅不確定性令許多經濟學家和投資者擔憂經濟可能陷入衰退。

          若谷歌業務在4月真的急轉直下,公司或許有義務至少發出某種預警。對某些人而言,谷歌的沉默可以被解讀為一種心照不宣的信心宣示。盡管辛德勒回避了有關4月經營狀況的提問,但他提及谷歌在歷次經濟衰退中的經驗,并強調搜索廣告相比其他廣告形式更具韌性。

          辛德勒表示:“退一步來說,我們在駕馭不確定性方面積累了豐富經驗。” (財富中文網)

          譯者:劉進龍

          審校:汪皓

          If the economy is heading into a downturn, Google hasn’t felt it.

          Or at least, it didn’t feel it up until March 31.

          The internet search giant reported strong Q1 results on Thursday that sent its stock up as much as 5% after hours, as its key advertising and cloud businesses delivered healthy growth. But those results apply to the first calendar quarter of the year, just before the Trump-triggered global trade war began in earnest.

          As for the business conditions Google is currently experiencing: Google isn’t saying. Executives at Google-parent company Alphabet maintained a disciplined silence on Thursday’s earnings call about anything that’s happened in the current quarter, despite analysts’ efforts to get an update.

          “It’s really too early to comment,” chief business officer Philipp Schindler said in response to one such query.

          “We’re obviously not immune to the macro environment, but we wouldn’t want to speculate about potential impacts,” Schindler said. (The one tidbit of information Schindler was willing to share involved the scrapping of the so-called de-minimis shipping exemption relied on by Chinese retailers like Shein and Temu, which would cause a “slight headwind” to Google’s advertising business in 2025, particularly from Asian retailers).

          After weeks of turmoil in the markets, and a variety of concerns weighing on Google in particular, the company’s strong Q1 report card—along with the news that it would bump up its dividend by a penny a share and repurchase another $70 billion of stock—was more than enough reason for investors to celebrate on Thursday.

          Google grew its topline 12% year-over-year in Q1 to $90.2 billion, beating the average analyst expectation of $89.2 billion, while earnings per share came in at $2.81 versus the $2.01 expected by Wall Street. The company ascribed the growth to strong demand from advertisers in the financial industry, insurance, healthcare, and retail.

          Revenue from ads on video site YouTube grew 10% from the prior year to $8.9 billion, while Google’s cloud business increased 28% to $12.3 billion.

          Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai touted gains in the company’s AI efforts, including the “AI Overviews” being rolled out across Google’s search service, which Pichai said is now used by 1.5 billion users per month. And the company re-affirmed its previously announced plan to spend $75 billion in capital expenditures for its cloud and AI infrastructure this year, signaling that it remains bullish on the AI business.

          Many dangers facing Google

          It’s a tricky time for Alphabet. Going into Thursday’s earnings report, the company’s shares had slid roughly 15% so far this year, larger than the drop suffered by the Nasdaq or the S&P 500.

          Alphabet’s business faces grave dangers on multiple fronts, as the economic uncertainty of Trump’s tariffs pressures its core advertising business, the proliferation of powerful new AI models threaten to disrupt its internet search dominance, and government regulators seek to break up the company.

          The court cases and regulatory threats faced by Alphabet went unmentioned during Thursday’s earnings call, as executives highlighted progress in the company’s various products, from its fast-growing YouTube subscriptions business to its self-driving Waymo cars.

          The fact that Alphabet historically hasn’t offered detailed “guidance” forecasts on its earnings calls gives it some cover to avoid the elephant in the room—the current state of demand from advertisers (as opposed to the state of demand in Q1).

          Because advertising accounts for roughly three-quarters of Alphabet’s revenue, the health of the global ad market in the months to come will be critical. Advertising and marketing budgets are typically among the first expenses companies cut in an economic downturn, and with uncertainty over tariffs, many economists and investors are concerned about a potential recession.

          If Google’s business were truly falling off a cliff in April, the company may have felt obligated to at least give some kind of warning. To some, the fact that Google stayed mum could be interpreted as a tacit sign of confidence. And while Schindler sidestepped questions about business conditions in April, he alluded to Google’s experience in previous economic recessions and the comparative resilience of search advertising compared to other types of advertising.

          “To zoom out,” Schindler said, “I would say we have a lot or experience in managing through uncertain times.”

          財富中文網所刊載內容之知識產權為財富媒體知識產權有限公司及/或相關權利人專屬所有或持有。未經許可,禁止進行轉載、摘編、復制及建立鏡像等任何使用。
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