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          知名房產交易平臺:房貸利率再降,美國人也買不起房

          Sydney Lake
          2025-08-04

          高企的房貸利率只是造成美國住房可負擔性危機的眾多因素之一。

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          圖片來源:Getty Images

          ? 美國房貸利率始終居高不下,一直徘徊在7%左右,遠高于疫情期間3%以下的水平。自2020年以來,美國房價已上漲逾50%,這使得擁有住房對許多美國人而言變得越來越遙不可及。

          疫情期間,購房者習慣了3%以下的房貸利率,感覺買房的夢想更容易實現了。但在過去幾年里,購房者就沒那么幸運了。

          2023年末,房貸利率曾一度飆升至8%。雖然之后略有回落,但根據《每日房貸新聞》的數據,目前30年期固定房貸利率仍高達6.75%。經濟學家和房地產機構警告稱,他們預計這一數字在短期內不會有大幅變動。更糟糕的是,一些人表示,要讓人們再次感覺能買得起房所需達到的房貸利率水平是難以企及的。

          上周二,Zillow的經濟分析師阿努什娜·普拉卡什報告稱,只有房貸利率下降到4.43%,普通購房人才能買得起一套普通住房。但普拉卡什寫道:“目前看來,如此大幅度的利率下降是不現實的。”她補充道,在紐約、洛杉磯、邁阿密、舊金山、圣地亞哥或圣何塞這些城市,即使房貸利率降到0%,一套普通住房的購房成本依舊令人望而卻步。

          沃倫·巴菲特的伯克希爾-哈撒韋家居服務公司(Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices)也在7月初的一份報告中表示,房貸利率是阻礙購房者和售房者的主要因素之一。

          該公司指出:“許多房主不愿將房屋掛牌出售,放棄他們已經享受的低房貸利率。對他們而言,房價大幅上漲帶來的收益根本無法抵消他們在極高利率下另買一套房所需支付的更多費用。”

          這一問題也被稱為“金手銬”(golden handcuffs)——或稱“房貸利率鎖定效應”。其核心在于,當前房主即使想搬家,也沒有動力將房屋掛牌出售,因為那樣做將意味著放棄多年前鎖定的低得多的房貸利率。

          這給住房市場帶來了一系列其他問題,尤其是庫存問題。

          根據伯克希爾-哈撒韋家居服務公司的數據,4月份待售現房數量環比增長了9%,達到145萬套;按當前銷售速度計算,這相當于4.4個月的供應量,為五年來的最高水平。越來越多賣家在房屋掛牌時間超出預期后選擇撤牌,充分體現了這種趨勢。

          Realtor.com 的高級經濟學家杰克·克里梅爾最近在《財富》雜志采訪時表示:“房屋掛牌時間比去年延長了近三周。這表明賣家仍然固守著疫情期間的房價預期,盡管市場傳遞的信號恰恰相反。”

          這并不意味著美國住房供應激增;事實上,我們仍然短缺數百萬套住房。這只是意味著,真正能買得起房的人不夠多。

          影響住房負擔能力的因素

          盡管庫存水平上升,但房價和房貸利率仍然是潛在購房者的障礙。伯克希爾-哈撒韋家居服務公司表示,房貸利率一直“居高不下”,阻礙了新買家進入市場。

          根據Realtor.com周四發布的一份報告,7月份一套普通住房的平均掛牌時間為58天,比去年同期長了7天。

          房貸利率無疑是購房者決定是否出價的一個重要考量因素,而且根據美國凱斯-席勒房價指數數據,自疫情爆發以來,房價也已上漲逾50%。

          與此同時,工資的增長速度未能跟上房屋增值的步伐,讓人們覺得買房更加難以負擔。科克倫集團(The Corcoran Group)的房地產經紀人亞歷山德拉·古普塔對《財富》雜志表示,如果房貸利率、房屋庫存或工資增長等方面沒有改觀,美國的住房可負擔性危機很可能將持續下去。

          古普塔表示:“一些首次購房者轉而選擇長期租房甚至合租模式,因為購房已經變得遙不可及。另一些人則更多地依賴家庭支持才能進入市場。我們看到住房階梯正在重塑。”

          不過,根據凱斯-席勒指數,房價增長似乎正在放緩,這帶來了一絲希望。

          標普道瓊斯指數固定收益可交易品和大宗商品主管尼古拉斯·戈德克在一份聲明中表示:“由于房屋可負擔性壓力依然存在,且庫存緊張,全國房價基本持穩,但也僅僅是勉強維持。”(財富中文網)

          譯者:劉進龍

          審校:汪皓

          ? 美國房貸利率始終居高不下,一直徘徊在7%左右,遠高于疫情期間3%以下的水平。自2020年以來,美國房價已上漲逾50%,這使得擁有住房對許多美國人而言變得越來越遙不可及。

          疫情期間,購房者習慣了3%以下的房貸利率,感覺買房的夢想更容易實現了。但在過去幾年里,購房者就沒那么幸運了。

          2023年末,房貸利率曾一度飆升至8%。雖然之后略有回落,但根據《每日房貸新聞》的數據,目前30年期固定房貸利率仍高達6.75%。經濟學家和房地產機構警告稱,他們預計這一數字在短期內不會有大幅變動。更糟糕的是,一些人表示,要讓人們再次感覺能買得起房所需達到的房貸利率水平是難以企及的。

          上周二,Zillow的經濟分析師阿努什娜·普拉卡什報告稱,只有房貸利率下降到4.43%,普通購房人才能買得起一套普通住房。但普拉卡什寫道:“目前看來,如此大幅度的利率下降是不現實的。”她補充道,在紐約、洛杉磯、邁阿密、舊金山、圣地亞哥或圣何塞這些城市,即使房貸利率降到0%,一套普通住房的購房成本依舊令人望而卻步。

          沃倫·巴菲特的伯克希爾-哈撒韋家居服務公司(Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices)也在7月初的一份報告中表示,房貸利率是阻礙購房者和售房者的主要因素之一。

          該公司指出:“許多房主不愿將房屋掛牌出售,放棄他們已經享受的低房貸利率。對他們而言,房價大幅上漲帶來的收益根本無法抵消他們在極高利率下另買一套房所需支付的更多費用。”

          這一問題也被稱為“金手銬”(golden handcuffs)——或稱“房貸利率鎖定效應”。其核心在于,當前房主即使想搬家,也沒有動力將房屋掛牌出售,因為那樣做將意味著放棄多年前鎖定的低得多的房貸利率。

          這給住房市場帶來了一系列其他問題,尤其是庫存問題。

          根據伯克希爾-哈撒韋家居服務公司的數據,4月份待售現房數量環比增長了9%,達到145萬套;按當前銷售速度計算,這相當于4.4個月的供應量,為五年來的最高水平。越來越多賣家在房屋掛牌時間超出預期后選擇撤牌,充分體現了這種趨勢。

          Realtor.com 的高級經濟學家杰克·克里梅爾最近在《財富》雜志采訪時表示:“房屋掛牌時間比去年延長了近三周。這表明賣家仍然固守著疫情期間的房價預期,盡管市場傳遞的信號恰恰相反。”

          這并不意味著美國住房供應激增;事實上,我們仍然短缺數百萬套住房。這只是意味著,真正能買得起房的人不夠多。

          影響住房負擔能力的因素

          盡管庫存水平上升,但房價和房貸利率仍然是潛在購房者的障礙。伯克希爾-哈撒韋家居服務公司表示,房貸利率一直“居高不下”,阻礙了新買家進入市場。

          根據Realtor.com周四發布的一份報告,7月份一套普通住房的平均掛牌時間為58天,比去年同期長了7天。

          房貸利率無疑是購房者決定是否出價的一個重要考量因素,而且根據美國凱斯-席勒房價指數數據,自疫情爆發以來,房價也已上漲逾50%。

          與此同時,工資的增長速度未能跟上房屋增值的步伐,讓人們覺得買房更加難以負擔。科克倫集團(The Corcoran Group)的房地產經紀人亞歷山德拉·古普塔對《財富》雜志表示,如果房貸利率、房屋庫存或工資增長等方面沒有改觀,美國的住房可負擔性危機很可能將持續下去。

          古普塔表示:“一些首次購房者轉而選擇長期租房甚至合租模式,因為購房已經變得遙不可及。另一些人則更多地依賴家庭支持才能進入市場。我們看到住房階梯正在重塑。”

          不過,根據凱斯-席勒指數,房價增長似乎正在放緩,這帶來了一絲希望。

          標普道瓊斯指數固定收益可交易品和大宗商品主管尼古拉斯·戈德克在一份聲明中表示:“由于房屋可負擔性壓力依然存在,且庫存緊張,全國房價基本持穩,但也僅僅是勉強維持。”(財富中文網)

          譯者:劉進龍

          審校:汪皓

          ? Mortgage rates have remained stubbornly high: hovering near 7%, well above the sub-3% rates during the pandemic. That makes homeownership increasingly unaffordable for many Americans, as home prices have risen over 50% since 2020.

          During the pandemic, home buyers got accustomed to sub-3% mortgage rates, which made purchasing a house feel more achievable. But in the past couple of years, buyers have had no such luck.

          In late 2023, mortgage rates peaked at 8%. While they’ve let up some, today’s 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.75%, according to Mortgage News Daily. Economists and real-estate groups have warned they don’t see that figure budging much in the near future. And to make matters worse, some have said the mortgage rate it would take to make homes feel affordable again isn’t achievable.

          On Tuesday, Zillow economic analyst Anushna Prakash reported mortgage rates would need to drop to 4.43% for a typical home to be affordable to an average buyer. But “that kind of a rate decline is currently unrealistic,” Prakash wrote. Meanwhile, not even a 0% interest rate would make a typical home affordable in New York, Los Angeles, Miami, San Francisco, San Diego, or San Jose, she added.

          Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices also said in an early July report that mortgage rates are one of the main deterrents for both home buyers and sellers.

          “Many homeowners are reluctant [to] put their homes on the market and give up the low mortgage rates they already have,” according to Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices. “To them, high price gains won’t mitigate their ability to pay more for another home at significantly higher interest rates.”

          This issue is also referred to as golden handcuffs—or the locked-in mortgage rate effect. The idea is that current homeowners have no incentive to put their homes on the market, even if they want to move, because they’d forgo a much lower mortgage rate they had locked in years ago.

          This causes a litany of other problems in the housing market, namely inventory.

          The number of unsold existing homes for sale rose 9% month-over-month in April, according to Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices, to 1.45 million; that’s equal to 4.4 months’ supply on hand at the current sales pace and the highest level in five years. That’s shown itself in more sellers delisting their properties after sitting on the market for longer than expected.

          “Homes are sitting on the market nearly three weeks longer than last year,” Realtor.com Senior Economist Jake Krimmel recently told Fortune. “That’s a sign of sellers still anchored to pandemic-era prices even though the market is telling them otherwise.”

          That doesn’t mean there’s an influx of housing in the U.S.; in fact, we’re still short millions of units. It just means there aren’t enough people who can actually afford to buy a home.

          The factors influencing housing affordability

          Although inventory levels are increasing, home prices and mortgage rates continue to be a roadblock for potential home buyers. Mortgage rates have remained “stubbornly high,” Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices said, deterring new buyers from the market.

          According to a Realtor.com report published Thursday, the typical home spent 58 days on the market in July, which is 7 days longer than the same time last year.

          Mortgage rates are certainly a factor among buyers when deciding to make an offer, and home prices are also up more than 50% since the onset of the pandemic, according to the U.S. Case-Shiller Home Price Index.

          All the while, wages haven’t grown at the same pace as home appreciation, making buying a house feel even more unaffordable. And if nothing changes like mortgage rates, inventory, or wage growth, it’s likely the housing affordability crisis in the U.S. will persist, Alexandra Gupta, a real-estate broker with The Corcoran Group, told Fortune.

          “Some first-time buyers are turning to long-term renting or even co-living models because the idea of owning a home has become so out of reach. Others are relying more on family support to get into the market,” Gupta said. “We’re seeing a reshaping of the housing ladder.”

          The small glimmer of hope, though, is home price growth appears to be slowing, according to the Case-Shiller indices.

          “With affordability still stretched and inventory constrained, national home prices are holding steady, but barely,” Nicholas Godec, head of fixed-income tradables and commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement.

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