
? 摩根士丹利的邁克·威爾遜表示,四月份的股市拋售標(biāo)志著熊市的結(jié)束,新一輪牛市已經(jīng)開(kāi)啟。他預(yù)測(cè)稱,后續(xù)肯定還會(huì)出現(xiàn)波動(dòng),而且市場(chǎng)可能會(huì)在第三季度有所降溫。但他又補(bǔ)充道,投資者應(yīng)繼續(xù)逢低買(mǎi)入,因?yàn)榕J腥蕴幱谠缙陔A段。
雖然市場(chǎng)對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)可能走向衰退的擔(dān)憂不斷加劇,但摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的邁克·威爾遜指出,過(guò)去三年,美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)際上一直處于“滾動(dòng)式衰退”中。
8月7日,他在接受彭博電視臺(tái)(Bloomberg TV)采訪時(shí)表示,現(xiàn)在這場(chǎng)衰退已經(jīng)結(jié)束,四月份那次史詩(shī)級(jí)的股市拋售(當(dāng)時(shí)特朗普推出的“解放日”關(guān)稅震驚了投資者)則標(biāo)志著熊市的終結(jié)。
他補(bǔ)充道:“現(xiàn)在我們已經(jīng)步入新一輪牛市,而資本市場(chǎng)的活躍表現(xiàn)進(jìn)一步證明了該分析結(jié)論的正確性。”
作為摩根士丹利首席美股策略師兼首席投資官,威爾遜表示,在此過(guò)程中,出現(xiàn)任何波動(dòng)與盤(pán)整均屬正常現(xiàn)象,且相較于2020年那種直線上漲的行情,當(dāng)前這種漸進(jìn)式上漲對(duì)市場(chǎng)更為健康。
事實(shí)上,近期股市已呈現(xiàn)出V型復(fù)蘇的直線上漲趨勢(shì)。在四月份低點(diǎn),標(biāo)普500指數(shù)一度大幅暴跌,較此前高點(diǎn)下跌近20%。自那以后,該指數(shù)已飆升30%,且屢創(chuàng)新高,年內(nèi)漲幅已接近9%。
但威爾遜預(yù)測(cè)第三季度股市可能會(huì)有所放緩,可能會(huì)給投資者帶來(lái)加碼押注股市反彈的機(jī)會(huì)。
“我想非常明確地指出,當(dāng)前仍處于新一輪牛市的早期階段,因此大家應(yīng)該逢低買(mǎi)入,”他說(shuō)道。
上個(gè)月,威爾遜在一份報(bào)告中表示,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)到2026年中期可能達(dá)到7200點(diǎn),并解釋說(shuō),他現(xiàn)在更傾向于認(rèn)為自己更樂(lè)觀的“牛市情景”預(yù)測(cè)會(huì)成為現(xiàn)實(shí)。
他列舉的理由包括盈利強(qiáng)勁、人工智能的應(yīng)用、美元走弱、特朗普的減稅政策、被壓抑的需求以及對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將于2026年初降息的預(yù)期。
威爾遜的觀點(diǎn)反映了許多華爾街頂級(jí)分析師日益增長(zhǎng)的樂(lè)觀情緒,隨著多項(xiàng)貿(mào)易協(xié)議得到議簽署,市場(chǎng)對(duì)關(guān)稅的擔(dān)憂顯著緩解。
上個(gè)月,奧本海默公司(Oppenheimer)首席投資策略師約翰·斯托爾茨弗斯、將其對(duì)標(biāo)普500指數(shù)今年的目標(biāo)價(jià)從5950點(diǎn)上調(diào)至7100點(diǎn),重新確認(rèn)了他最初在2024年12月提出的展望。
如果標(biāo)普500指數(shù)今年能上看7100點(diǎn),則意味著其在2025年的漲幅將達(dá)到約21%,連續(xù)第三年漲幅超過(guò)20%。這種情況自美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)、股市大繁榮的1990年代末以來(lái)還未曾出現(xiàn)過(guò)。
與此同時(shí),每逢市場(chǎng)下跌,盡管機(jī)構(gòu)投資者會(huì)采取相對(duì)謹(jǐn)慎的投資策略,但散戶投資者總會(huì)不停買(mǎi)入股票,進(jìn)一步助推市場(chǎng)加速上漲。
逢低買(mǎi)入策略曾帶來(lái)豐厚回報(bào),但隨著越來(lái)越多投資者試圖搶先布局,反而加快了市場(chǎng)反彈速度,使這種策略的執(zhí)行難度日益增加。
8月5日在接受美國(guó)消費(fèi)者新聞與商業(yè)頻道(CNBC)采訪時(shí),盈透證券(Interactive Brokers)首席策略師史蒂夫·索斯尼克說(shuō):“回調(diào)持續(xù)的時(shí)間(半衰期)正變得越來(lái)越短。我認(rèn)為,大家因?yàn)楹ε洛e(cuò)過(guò)回調(diào)機(jī)會(huì),往往會(huì)在回調(diào)跡象剛剛出現(xiàn)時(shí)就匆忙進(jìn)場(chǎng)。”
他警告稱,不要僅僅因?yàn)楣蓛r(jià)下跌就條件反射式地逢低買(mǎi)入,并稱投資者應(yīng)更審慎,并運(yùn)用一些分析來(lái)尋找真正的價(jià)值。
逢低買(mǎi)入的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)在于,有可能“抄底抄在半山腰”,結(jié)果買(mǎi)入后股價(jià)仍長(zhǎng)期下跌。
“市場(chǎng)總能在節(jié)骨眼上讓最多人集體失策”,索斯尼克說(shuō)。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:梁宇
審校:夏林
? 摩根士丹利的邁克·威爾遜表示,四月份的股市拋售標(biāo)志著熊市的結(jié)束,新一輪牛市已經(jīng)開(kāi)啟。他預(yù)測(cè)稱,后續(xù)肯定還會(huì)出現(xiàn)波動(dòng),而且市場(chǎng)可能會(huì)在第三季度有所降溫。但他又補(bǔ)充道,投資者應(yīng)繼續(xù)逢低買(mǎi)入,因?yàn)榕J腥蕴幱谠缙陔A段。
雖然市場(chǎng)對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)可能走向衰退的擔(dān)憂不斷加劇,但摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的邁克·威爾遜指出,過(guò)去三年,美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)際上一直處于“滾動(dòng)式衰退”中。
8月7日,他在接受彭博電視臺(tái)(Bloomberg TV)采訪時(shí)表示,現(xiàn)在這場(chǎng)衰退已經(jīng)結(jié)束,四月份那次史詩(shī)級(jí)的股市拋售(當(dāng)時(shí)特朗普推出的“解放日”關(guān)稅震驚了投資者)則標(biāo)志著熊市的終結(jié)。
他補(bǔ)充道:“現(xiàn)在我們已經(jīng)步入新一輪牛市,而資本市場(chǎng)的活躍表現(xiàn)進(jìn)一步證明了該分析結(jié)論的正確性。”
作為摩根士丹利首席美股策略師兼首席投資官,威爾遜表示,在此過(guò)程中,出現(xiàn)任何波動(dòng)與盤(pán)整均屬正常現(xiàn)象,且相較于2020年那種直線上漲的行情,當(dāng)前這種漸進(jìn)式上漲對(duì)市場(chǎng)更為健康。
事實(shí)上,近期股市已呈現(xiàn)出V型復(fù)蘇的直線上漲趨勢(shì)。在四月份低點(diǎn),標(biāo)普500指數(shù)一度大幅暴跌,較此前高點(diǎn)下跌近20%。自那以后,該指數(shù)已飆升30%,且屢創(chuàng)新高,年內(nèi)漲幅已接近9%。
但威爾遜預(yù)測(cè)第三季度股市可能會(huì)有所放緩,可能會(huì)給投資者帶來(lái)加碼押注股市反彈的機(jī)會(huì)。
“我想非常明確地指出,當(dāng)前仍處于新一輪牛市的早期階段,因此大家應(yīng)該逢低買(mǎi)入,”他說(shuō)道。
上個(gè)月,威爾遜在一份報(bào)告中表示,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)到2026年中期可能達(dá)到7200點(diǎn),并解釋說(shuō),他現(xiàn)在更傾向于認(rèn)為自己更樂(lè)觀的“牛市情景”預(yù)測(cè)會(huì)成為現(xiàn)實(shí)。
他列舉的理由包括盈利強(qiáng)勁、人工智能的應(yīng)用、美元走弱、特朗普的減稅政策、被壓抑的需求以及對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將于2026年初降息的預(yù)期。
威爾遜的觀點(diǎn)反映了許多華爾街頂級(jí)分析師日益增長(zhǎng)的樂(lè)觀情緒,隨著多項(xiàng)貿(mào)易協(xié)議得到議簽署,市場(chǎng)對(duì)關(guān)稅的擔(dān)憂顯著緩解。
上個(gè)月,奧本海默公司(Oppenheimer)首席投資策略師約翰·斯托爾茨弗斯、將其對(duì)標(biāo)普500指數(shù)今年的目標(biāo)價(jià)從5950點(diǎn)上調(diào)至7100點(diǎn),重新確認(rèn)了他最初在2024年12月提出的展望。
如果標(biāo)普500指數(shù)今年能上看7100點(diǎn),則意味著其在2025年的漲幅將達(dá)到約21%,連續(xù)第三年漲幅超過(guò)20%。這種情況自美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)、股市大繁榮的1990年代末以來(lái)還未曾出現(xiàn)過(guò)。
與此同時(shí),每逢市場(chǎng)下跌,盡管機(jī)構(gòu)投資者會(huì)采取相對(duì)謹(jǐn)慎的投資策略,但散戶投資者總會(huì)不停買(mǎi)入股票,進(jìn)一步助推市場(chǎng)加速上漲。
逢低買(mǎi)入策略曾帶來(lái)豐厚回報(bào),但隨著越來(lái)越多投資者試圖搶先布局,反而加快了市場(chǎng)反彈速度,使這種策略的執(zhí)行難度日益增加。
8月5日在接受美國(guó)消費(fèi)者新聞與商業(yè)頻道(CNBC)采訪時(shí),盈透證券(Interactive Brokers)首席策略師史蒂夫·索斯尼克說(shuō):“回調(diào)持續(xù)的時(shí)間(半衰期)正變得越來(lái)越短。我認(rèn)為,大家因?yàn)楹ε洛e(cuò)過(guò)回調(diào)機(jī)會(huì),往往會(huì)在回調(diào)跡象剛剛出現(xiàn)時(shí)就匆忙進(jìn)場(chǎng)。”
他警告稱,不要僅僅因?yàn)楣蓛r(jià)下跌就條件反射式地逢低買(mǎi)入,并稱投資者應(yīng)更審慎,并運(yùn)用一些分析來(lái)尋找真正的價(jià)值。
逢低買(mǎi)入的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)在于,有可能“抄底抄在半山腰”,結(jié)果買(mǎi)入后股價(jià)仍長(zhǎng)期下跌。
“市場(chǎng)總能在節(jié)骨眼上讓最多人集體失策”,索斯尼克說(shuō)。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:梁宇
審校:夏林
? The stock market selloff in April marked the end of a bear market, according to Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson, who said a new bull market has started. Volatility along the way is normal, and the market will likely cool off in the third quarter, he predicted. But investors should keep buying the dip as the bull market is still in the early stages, he added.
There’s growing concern that the U.S. may be headed for a recession, but Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson has said that the economy was actually in a “rolling recession” for the past three years.
It’s over now, and the epic stock market selloff in April, when President Donald Trump shocked investors with his “Liberation Day” tariffs, marked the end of a bear market, he told Bloomberg TV on Thursday.
“Now we’re in a new bull market, and capital markets activity is just another sign that that analysis, or that conclusion, is probably correct,” he added.
Wilson, who is Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist and chief investment officer, said any volatility and consolidation along the way are normal, noting that it’s actually preferable to a market that goes straight up like in 2020.
In fact, the stock market has seen some straight lines lately in form of a V-shaped recovery. At its lows in April, the S&P 500 had tumbled so precipitously and so quickly that it was down nearly 20% from its prior high. Since then, the index has shot up 30%, hitting fresh records and leaving it up almost 9% so far this year.
But Wilson predicted some stock market moderation in the third quarter, potentially offering a chance to double down on the rally.
“I want to be very clear: it’s still early in the new bull market, so you want to be buying these dips,” he said.
Last month, Wilson said in a note that the S&P 500 could reach 7,200 by mid-2026, explaining that he is starting to lean closer to his more optimistic “bull case” scenario.
He cited strong earnings as well as AI adoption, the weak dollar, Trump’s tax cuts, pent-up demand, and expectations for Fed rate cuts in early 2026.
Wilson’s view is part of an increased sense of optimism among other top Wall Street analysts as fears over tariffs ease with the signing of several trade deals.
Last month, Oppenheimer chief investment strategist John Stoltzfus hiked his S&P 500 price target for this year to 7,100 from 5,950, reinstating the outlook he initially made in December 2024.
If the S&P 500 hits 7,100 this year, it would represent a gain of about 21% for 2025, marking a third straight year with a surge of more than 20%. That hasn’t happened since the late 1990s, when the U.S. economy and the stock market boomed.
Meanwhile, retail investors have relentless bought stocks whenever they have dipped, helping turbo-charge the market even as institutional investors have taken a less aggressive stance.
Buying the dip has paid off so well that it’s actually getting harder to do as more investors try to get ahead of the crowd, fueling faster rebounds.
“The half life of dips is getting ever shorter,” Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, told CNBC on Tuesday. “And I think because people are so afraid of missing the dip, they basically rush in at the slightest sign of one.”
He cautioned against reflexively buying dips just because a stock is down, saying investors should instead be more judicious and apply some analysis to find real value.
Still, the risk is that dip-buyers “catch a falling knife” in the process, leaving them with stocks that continue on a long-term decline.
“The market has a way of making the maximum number of people wrong at the most inopportune time,” Sosnick said.