
? 盡管OpenAI首席執(zhí)行官薩姆·奧爾特曼(Sam Altman)警告稱,在估值飆升的背景下,部分投資者可能面臨“虧損”風(fēng)險,但華爾街對人工智能熱潮依舊保持強(qiáng)勁信心。微軟(Microsoft)、亞馬遜(Amazon)、Alphabet、Meta等大型科技企業(yè)仍在不斷加大資本投入,以滿足日益增長的人工智能需求;而韋德布什證券公司(Wedbush)的丹·艾夫斯(Dan Ives)、Treasury Partners的理查德·薩珀斯坦(Richard Saperstein)等分析師,則著重強(qiáng)調(diào)人工智能的長期潛力。
華爾街分析師認(rèn)為人工智能熱潮仍有發(fā)展空間。然而,作為這場熱潮的核心推動者,OpenAI首席執(zhí)行官薩姆·奧爾特曼似乎信心不足。
上周晚些時候,奧爾特曼在與記者共進(jìn)晚餐時,將當(dāng)前的人工智能熱潮與20世紀(jì)90年代的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫相提并論——彼時互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司估值急劇飆升,隨后便遭遇崩盤。
奧爾特曼在接受科技媒體The Verge采訪時表示:“當(dāng)泡沫出現(xiàn)時,聰明人會因核心真相而陷入過度亢奮。回顧歷史上的多數(shù)泡沫,比如科技泡沫,其背后皆有真實價值作依托:科技的重要性毋庸置疑,互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的重大意義也不言而喻。只是人們的熱情超出了合理的邊界。”
他指出,部分初創(chuàng)公司僅憑三名員工便能融資數(shù)億美元,其估值高得“離譜”。
他表示:“我們是否正處于投資者整體對人工智能過度狂熱的階段?在我看來答案是肯定的。人工智能是否是長久以來最為關(guān)鍵的變革?我的看法也是肯定的。”
奧爾特曼警告稱,隨著部分炒作消退,部分投資者或?qū)⒚媾R“重大損失”,但他堅持認(rèn)為人工智能創(chuàng)造的長期價值,足以抵消這些短期損失。在15秒內(nèi),他三次提及“泡沫”一詞,還調(diào)侃道,這番言論或許會登上新聞頭條。
不過,韋德布什證券公司的丹·艾夫斯并未因奧爾特曼略顯謹(jǐn)慎的論調(diào)而動搖。他向《財富》雜志表示:“人工智能革命至少會在未來兩到三年內(nèi),為科技牛市注入動力。”
他在郵件中寫道:“第四次工業(yè)革命建設(shè)預(yù)計將投入數(shù)萬億美元。盡管人工智能供應(yīng)商所在的私募市場部分領(lǐng)域可能存在泡沫,但從整體來看,我們并不認(rèn)為這構(gòu)成整體泡沫。在我們看來,當(dāng)下的市場狀態(tài)更類似于1996年——仍有巨大的發(fā)展空間,而非泡沫即將破裂的1999年。”
Treasury Partners首席投資官理查德·薩珀斯坦也對泡沫擔(dān)憂不以為意,指出大型科技股仍是市場發(fā)展的驅(qū)動力。
據(jù)《巴倫周刊》報道,他在周一的一份報告中寫道,大型科技公司“引領(lǐng)市場走高,并將繼續(xù)主導(dǎo)市場走勢”,其依據(jù)在于盈利持續(xù)增長的預(yù)期、強(qiáng)勁現(xiàn)金流的再投資能力以及全球業(yè)務(wù)擴(kuò)張。
薩珀斯坦建議投資者繼續(xù)全面配置美國股票,尤其關(guān)注大型科技股。他指出,放松監(jiān)管、產(chǎn)業(yè)回流、資本支出優(yōu)惠政策等結(jié)構(gòu)性利好因素,將在未來數(shù)年為企業(yè)業(yè)績提升及更廣泛層面的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長提供支撐。
資本支出毫無放緩跡象
近期數(shù)周,投資者有理由歡呼雀躍,原因是大型科技公司公布的財報均超預(yù)期。微軟、Alphabet和Meta均實現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁增長,且在人工智能領(lǐng)域的投入毫無收縮跡象。
微軟、亞馬遜、Alphabet、Meta等頭部科技企業(yè),均已上調(diào)資本支出預(yù)期,以滿足人工智能日益增長的需求。奧爾特曼旗下的OpenAI也不例外。
據(jù)The Verge報道,奧爾特曼表示:“在不遠(yuǎn)的將來,OpenAI將在數(shù)據(jù)中心建設(shè)上投入數(shù)萬億美元。屆時定會有不少經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家憂心忡忡地說‘這太瘋狂、太魯莽了’,但我們只會回應(yīng)‘沒關(guān)系,讓我們沿著既定路徑做好該做的事。’”
隨著人工智能領(lǐng)域投資激增,“人工智能投資可能超出可持續(xù)增長范圍”的擔(dān)憂也在悄然升溫。阿里巴巴聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人蔡崇信(Joe Tsai)、橋水基金創(chuàng)始人瑞·達(dá)利歐(Ray Dalio)等行業(yè)人士,均對這一趨勢表達(dá)了擔(dān)憂。
今年早些時候,達(dá)利歐警告稱,當(dāng)前華爾街的市場周期,與1998年至1999年互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破裂前的周期“極為相似”。
他向《金融時報》表示:“存在這樣一項足以改寫世界格局且注定會大獲成功的重大新技術(shù),然而,有些人卻將其與投資層面的成功混為一談。”
上月,阿波羅全球管理公司(Apollo Global Management)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家托爾斯滕·斯洛克(Torsten Slok)在報告中進(jìn)一步指出,當(dāng)前人工智能熱潮的熱度可能超過20世紀(jì)90年代的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫。他指出,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)成份股中市值排名前十的公司,其當(dāng)前估值與基本面的偏離程度,已超過互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫鼎盛時期。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
? 盡管OpenAI首席執(zhí)行官薩姆·奧爾特曼(Sam Altman)警告稱,在估值飆升的背景下,部分投資者可能面臨“虧損”風(fēng)險,但華爾街對人工智能熱潮依舊保持強(qiáng)勁信心。微軟(Microsoft)、亞馬遜(Amazon)、Alphabet、Meta等大型科技企業(yè)仍在不斷加大資本投入,以滿足日益增長的人工智能需求;而韋德布什證券公司(Wedbush)的丹·艾夫斯(Dan Ives)、Treasury Partners的理查德·薩珀斯坦(Richard Saperstein)等分析師,則著重強(qiáng)調(diào)人工智能的長期潛力。
華爾街分析師認(rèn)為人工智能熱潮仍有發(fā)展空間。然而,作為這場熱潮的核心推動者,OpenAI首席執(zhí)行官薩姆·奧爾特曼似乎信心不足。
上周晚些時候,奧爾特曼在與記者共進(jìn)晚餐時,將當(dāng)前的人工智能熱潮與20世紀(jì)90年代的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫相提并論——彼時互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司估值急劇飆升,隨后便遭遇崩盤。
奧爾特曼在接受科技媒體The Verge采訪時表示:“當(dāng)泡沫出現(xiàn)時,聰明人會因核心真相而陷入過度亢奮。回顧歷史上的多數(shù)泡沫,比如科技泡沫,其背后皆有真實價值作依托:科技的重要性毋庸置疑,互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的重大意義也不言而喻。只是人們的熱情超出了合理的邊界。”
他指出,部分初創(chuàng)公司僅憑三名員工便能融資數(shù)億美元,其估值高得“離譜”。
他表示:“我們是否正處于投資者整體對人工智能過度狂熱的階段?在我看來答案是肯定的。人工智能是否是長久以來最為關(guān)鍵的變革?我的看法也是肯定的。”
奧爾特曼警告稱,隨著部分炒作消退,部分投資者或?qū)⒚媾R“重大損失”,但他堅持認(rèn)為人工智能創(chuàng)造的長期價值,足以抵消這些短期損失。在15秒內(nèi),他三次提及“泡沫”一詞,還調(diào)侃道,這番言論或許會登上新聞頭條。
不過,韋德布什證券公司的丹·艾夫斯并未因奧爾特曼略顯謹(jǐn)慎的論調(diào)而動搖。他向《財富》雜志表示:“人工智能革命至少會在未來兩到三年內(nèi),為科技牛市注入動力。”
他在郵件中寫道:“第四次工業(yè)革命建設(shè)預(yù)計將投入數(shù)萬億美元。盡管人工智能供應(yīng)商所在的私募市場部分領(lǐng)域可能存在泡沫,但從整體來看,我們并不認(rèn)為這構(gòu)成整體泡沫。在我們看來,當(dāng)下的市場狀態(tài)更類似于1996年——仍有巨大的發(fā)展空間,而非泡沫即將破裂的1999年。”
Treasury Partners首席投資官理查德·薩珀斯坦也對泡沫擔(dān)憂不以為意,指出大型科技股仍是市場發(fā)展的驅(qū)動力。
據(jù)《巴倫周刊》報道,他在周一的一份報告中寫道,大型科技公司“引領(lǐng)市場走高,并將繼續(xù)主導(dǎo)市場走勢”,其依據(jù)在于盈利持續(xù)增長的預(yù)期、強(qiáng)勁現(xiàn)金流的再投資能力以及全球業(yè)務(wù)擴(kuò)張。
薩珀斯坦建議投資者繼續(xù)全面配置美國股票,尤其關(guān)注大型科技股。他指出,放松監(jiān)管、產(chǎn)業(yè)回流、資本支出優(yōu)惠政策等結(jié)構(gòu)性利好因素,將在未來數(shù)年為企業(yè)業(yè)績提升及更廣泛層面的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長提供支撐。
資本支出毫無放緩跡象
近期數(shù)周,投資者有理由歡呼雀躍,原因是大型科技公司公布的財報均超預(yù)期。微軟、Alphabet和Meta均實現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁增長,且在人工智能領(lǐng)域的投入毫無收縮跡象。
微軟、亞馬遜、Alphabet、Meta等頭部科技企業(yè),均已上調(diào)資本支出預(yù)期,以滿足人工智能日益增長的需求。奧爾特曼旗下的OpenAI也不例外。
據(jù)The Verge報道,奧爾特曼表示:“在不遠(yuǎn)的將來,OpenAI將在數(shù)據(jù)中心建設(shè)上投入數(shù)萬億美元。屆時定會有不少經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家憂心忡忡地說‘這太瘋狂、太魯莽了’,但我們只會回應(yīng)‘沒關(guān)系,讓我們沿著既定路徑做好該做的事。’”
隨著人工智能領(lǐng)域投資激增,“人工智能投資可能超出可持續(xù)增長范圍”的擔(dān)憂也在悄然升溫。阿里巴巴聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人蔡崇信(Joe Tsai)、橋水基金創(chuàng)始人瑞·達(dá)利歐(Ray Dalio)等行業(yè)人士,均對這一趨勢表達(dá)了擔(dān)憂。
今年早些時候,達(dá)利歐警告稱,當(dāng)前華爾街的市場周期,與1998年至1999年互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破裂前的周期“極為相似”。
他向《金融時報》表示:“存在這樣一項足以改寫世界格局且注定會大獲成功的重大新技術(shù),然而,有些人卻將其與投資層面的成功混為一談。”
上月,阿波羅全球管理公司(Apollo Global Management)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家托爾斯滕·斯洛克(Torsten Slok)在報告中進(jìn)一步指出,當(dāng)前人工智能熱潮的熱度可能超過20世紀(jì)90年代的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫。他指出,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)成份股中市值排名前十的公司,其當(dāng)前估值與基本面的偏離程度,已超過互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫鼎盛時期。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
? Wall Street is feeling confident about the AI boom, even as OpenAI CEO Sam Altman cautions that some investors could be “burnt” amid soaring valuations. Major tech firms, including Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta, continue to increase capital spending to meet growing AI demand, while analysts like Wedbush’s Dan Ives and Treasury Partners’ Richard Saperstein emphasize the long-term potential.
Wall Street analysts are confident the artificial intelligence boom still has room to run. Even if Sam Altman, the OpenAI chief executive at the center of it all, appears less confident.
Speaking to reporters over dinner late last week, Altman drew a parallel between today’s AI frenzy and the 1990s dotcom bubble, when internet company valuations spiked dramatically before crashing.
“When bubbles happen, smart people get overexcited about a kernel of truth,” Altman said, in comments reported by The Verge. “If you look at most of the bubbles in history, like the tech bubble, there was a real thing. Tech was really important. The internet was a really big deal. People got overexcited.”
He noted some startup valuations for companies raising hundreds of millions of dollars with only a staff of three were “insane.”
“Are we in a phase where investors as a whole are overexcited about AI? My opinion is yes,” he said. “Is AI the most important thing to happen in a very long time? My opinion is also yes.”
Altman warned that some investors are likely to get “very burnt” as some of the hype unwinds, but maintained that the long-term value created by artificial intelligence will outweigh short-term losses. He also repeated the word “bubble” three times in 15 seconds, joking that the comments were likely to become a headline.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives, however, was undeterred by Altman’s slightly tepid tone. He told Fortune that the “AI revolution will fuel a tech bull market for the next two to three years at least.
“This is trillions being spent in the build-out of this fourth industrial revolution. There could be froth in certain areas of the private market for AI vendors, but ultimately, we do not see this as a bubble. This is a 1996 moment with a lot more room to go, not a 1999 moment in our view,” he said in an email.
Richard Saperstein, chief investment officer at Treasury Partners, also shrugged off concerns, noting that large-cap technology stocks remain the market’s driving force.
In a Monday note reported by Barron’s, he wrote that big tech companies “have led the market higher and will continue to dominate market performance,” citing expectations for continued earnings growth, strong reinvestment of cash flows, and the expansion of their global reach.
Saperstein advised investors to remain fully invested in U.S. equities, with a particular focus on large-cap technology names. He pointed to structural tailwinds, including deregulation, onshoring, and favorable treatment of capital expenditures, that he believes will support both corporate performance and broader economic growth in the years ahead.
No sign of a spending slowdown
Investors have had a reason to cheer in recent weeks, as major tech companies reported earnings that exceeded expectations. Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta all posted strong growth and showed no signs of pulling back on AI.
The largest technology companies, including Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta, have all increased their capital expenditure forecasts to meet rising demand for artificial intelligence. Altman’s OpenAI is no different.
“You should expect OpenAI to spend trillions of dollars on data center construction in the not very distant future,” Altman said, in comments reported by The Verge. “And you should expect a bunch of economists wringing their hands, saying, ‘This is so crazy, it’s so reckless,’ and we’ll just be like, ‘You know what? Let us do our thing.’”
As AI spending soars, there has been simmering concern that investment in AI may be outpacing sustainable growth. Industry figures, including Alibaba cofounder Joe Tsai and Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio, have all voiced concerns about the trend.
Earlier this year, Dalio warned that the current cycle on Wall Street appeared to be “very similar” to that seen before the dotcom bust in 1998 and 1999.
“There’s a major new technology that certainly will change the world and be successful. But some people are confusing that with the investments being successful,” Dalio told the Financial Times.
In a report last month, Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Slok went further, arguing that the current AI boom may surpass the internet bubble of the 1990s. He noted that the 10 largest companies in the S&P 500 are now more overvalued relative to fundamentals than during the peak of the dotcom era.