
隨著近年來農產品價格暴跌以及總統唐納德·特朗普發起的貿易戰對農業造成的沖擊,美國玉米和大豆農戶接連發出嚴峻警告。
上周四,美國國家玉米種植者協會(National Corn Growers Association)警示稱:“在投入成本仍接近歷史高位之際,農產品價格卻大幅下跌,美國農村正遭遇一場經濟危機。”
該協會表示,玉米價格自2022年達到峰值以來,已暴跌逾50%,而同期生產成本僅下降3%,意味著每蒲式耳要虧損85美分。該協會進一步強調,明年前景更糟,價格將進一步走低,而成本則持續攀升。
該協會呼吁國會和特朗普政府通過提高乙醇摻混比例、擴大海外市場準入等措施提振需求。
一周前,美國大豆協會(American Soybean Association)致信特朗普,警告稱:“美國豆農正站在貿易和金融的懸崖邊上。”
該協會敦促特朗普在對華貿易談判中優先考慮大豆議題,爭取讓中國承諾大規模采購大豆并取消對美國農產品加征的關稅。
信中指出:“長期以來,美國一直是中國客戶的首選供應方。然而,由于關稅,中國的長期客戶已經并將繼續轉向南美競爭對手來滿足需求。而巴西自上次中美貿易戰以來大幅增產,足以滿足這一需求。”
該協會補充稱,美國大豆收獲季即將來臨,但中國尚未采購任何未來數月交貨的美國大豆。
信中強調,中美談判若遲遲未能達成貿易協議,隨著秋收季節日益深入,農民承受的壓力將愈發沉重。
與玉米種植者一樣,大豆種植者也面臨價格暴跌與成本高企的雙重壓力。大豆價格自2022年觸頂以來,已下跌約40%。
美國大豆協會表示:“豆農正承受巨大的財務壓力。價格持續下跌的同時,投入成本和設備開支卻大幅上漲。美國豆農無法在與最大客戶的長期貿易爭端中生存下去。”
農場收入與信貸狀況持續惡化
美聯儲最新農場金融狀況調查印證了農業經濟的慘淡景象。調查顯示,收入下降削弱了農民的流動性,從而推高了融資需求。
與此同時,信貸環境持續惡化。芝加哥聯儲和堪薩斯城聯儲轄區約30%的受訪者表示其償付率低于去年同期;明尼阿波利斯聯儲轄區該比例約為40%;而在圣路易斯聯儲轄區,這一比例更是高達50%。
當然,美國農民也將獲得大規模援助。特朗普今年初發動新一輪貿易戰后,美國政府和國會議員4月起就開始商討農戶紓困方案。
7月簽署的《大而美法案》(One Big Beautiful Bill Act)包含約660億美元農業專項支出。據美國農場局聯合會(American Farm Bureau Federation)數據,其中絕大部分資金(約590億美元)將用于強化農場安全網。
此外,特朗普談判達成的其他貿易協議也有望推動亞洲多國加大對美國農產品的采購。
例如,印尼和孟加拉國已承諾按照協議增加采購量。本周有消息人士對路透社透露,越南、菲律賓和泰國可能會增加飼料谷物進口量。
美國大豆出口協會(U.S. Soybean Export Council)東南亞及大洋洲區域總監羅啟明(Timothy Loh)在接受路透社采訪時表示:“近期的貿易磋商卓有成效,為美國拓寬本地區市場準入提供了機會。”
他補充說:“我們預計東南亞對美國豆粕等農產品的需求將進一步增長。”(財富中文網)
譯者:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
隨著近年來農產品價格暴跌以及總統唐納德·特朗普發起的貿易戰對農業造成的沖擊,美國玉米和大豆農戶接連發出嚴峻警告。
上周四,美國國家玉米種植者協會(National Corn Growers Association)警示稱:“在投入成本仍接近歷史高位之際,農產品價格卻大幅下跌,美國農村正遭遇一場經濟危機。”
該協會表示,玉米價格自2022年達到峰值以來,已暴跌逾50%,而同期生產成本僅下降3%,意味著每蒲式耳要虧損85美分。該協會進一步強調,明年前景更糟,價格將進一步走低,而成本則持續攀升。
該協會呼吁國會和特朗普政府通過提高乙醇摻混比例、擴大海外市場準入等措施提振需求。
一周前,美國大豆協會(American Soybean Association)致信特朗普,警告稱:“美國豆農正站在貿易和金融的懸崖邊上。”
該協會敦促特朗普在對華貿易談判中優先考慮大豆議題,爭取讓中國承諾大規模采購大豆并取消對美國農產品加征的關稅。
信中指出:“長期以來,美國一直是中國客戶的首選供應方。然而,由于關稅,中國的長期客戶已經并將繼續轉向南美競爭對手來滿足需求。而巴西自上次中美貿易戰以來大幅增產,足以滿足這一需求。”
該協會補充稱,美國大豆收獲季即將來臨,但中國尚未采購任何未來數月交貨的美國大豆。
信中強調,中美談判若遲遲未能達成貿易協議,隨著秋收季節日益深入,農民承受的壓力將愈發沉重。
與玉米種植者一樣,大豆種植者也面臨價格暴跌與成本高企的雙重壓力。大豆價格自2022年觸頂以來,已下跌約40%。
美國大豆協會表示:“豆農正承受巨大的財務壓力。價格持續下跌的同時,投入成本和設備開支卻大幅上漲。美國豆農無法在與最大客戶的長期貿易爭端中生存下去。”
農場收入與信貸狀況持續惡化
美聯儲最新農場金融狀況調查印證了農業經濟的慘淡景象。調查顯示,收入下降削弱了農民的流動性,從而推高了融資需求。
與此同時,信貸環境持續惡化。芝加哥聯儲和堪薩斯城聯儲轄區約30%的受訪者表示其償付率低于去年同期;明尼阿波利斯聯儲轄區該比例約為40%;而在圣路易斯聯儲轄區,這一比例更是高達50%。
當然,美國農民也將獲得大規模援助。特朗普今年初發動新一輪貿易戰后,美國政府和國會議員4月起就開始商討農戶紓困方案。
7月簽署的《大而美法案》(One Big Beautiful Bill Act)包含約660億美元農業專項支出。據美國農場局聯合會(American Farm Bureau Federation)數據,其中絕大部分資金(約590億美元)將用于強化農場安全網。
此外,特朗普談判達成的其他貿易協議也有望推動亞洲多國加大對美國農產品的采購。
例如,印尼和孟加拉國已承諾按照協議增加采購量。本周有消息人士對路透社透露,越南、菲律賓和泰國可能會增加飼料谷物進口量。
美國大豆出口協會(U.S. Soybean Export Council)東南亞及大洋洲區域總監羅啟明(Timothy Loh)在接受路透社采訪時表示:“近期的貿易磋商卓有成效,為美國拓寬本地區市場準入提供了機會。”
他補充說:“我們預計東南亞對美國豆粕等農產品的需求將進一步增長。”(財富中文網)
譯者:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
U.S. producers of corn and soybeans have sent dire warnings as prices for their crops have crashed in recent years while President Donald Trump’s trade war whipsaws farmers.
On Thursday, the National Corn Growers Association raised alarms about “the economic crisis hitting rural America, as commodity prices drop at a time when input costs remain at near-record highs.”
Corn prices have plunged more than 50% from their 2022 peak, while production costs are down just 3% in that span, translating to a loss of 85 cents per bushel, the NCGA said, adding that the outlook for next year is worse with even lower prices and higher costs.
The NCGA called on Congress and the Trump administration to boost demand, including via higher blends of ethanol and increased foreign market access.
A week before that, the American Soybean Association sent a letter to Trump, warning that “U.S. soybean farmers are standing at a trade and financial precipice.”
The group asked that Trump prioritize soybeans in trade talks with China, seeking major purchase commitments as well as the removal of Beijing’s duties on the U.S.
“Historically, the U.S. was the provider of choice for Chinese customers,” the letter said. “However, due to ongoing tariff retaliation, our longstanding customers in China have and will continue to turn to our competitors in South America to meet their demand, a demand Brazil can meet due to significantly increased production since the previous trade war with China.”
With harvest season fast approaching, the association added that China hasn’t purchased any U.S. soybeans for the months ahead.
The longer negotiations with China drag on without a trade deal—and the deeper farmers go into the fall— the more pain they will feel, it said.
Like the corn growers, the soybean growers also cited sharply lower prices and high costs. Since peaking in 2022, soybean prices have fallen about 40%.
“Soybean farmers are under extreme financial stress,” the group said. “Prices continue to drop and at the same time our farmers are paying significantly more for inputs and equipment. U.S. soybean farmers cannot survive a prolonged trade dispute with our largest customer.”
Farm incomes, credit conditions deteriorate
The bleak picture of the agricultural economy was echoed by the Federal Reserve’s latest survey of farm financial conditions. It found that weaker income has reduced liquidity for farmers, boosting demand for financing.
At the same time, credit conditions deteriorated with roughly 30% of respondents in the Chicago Fed and Kansas City Fed districts reporting lower repayment rates versus a year ago, while the Minneapolis Fed region’s share was around 40% and the St. Louis Fed’s was 50%.
To be sure, U.S. farmers are set to receive substantial help. After Trump launched his latest trade war earlier this year, the administration and lawmakers began talking about a bailout for farmers in April, similar to how they received a bailout during Trump’s first term, when he waged a trade war against China.
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act that was signed in July included about $66 billion in agriculture-focused spending. The vast majority, about $59 billion, is earmarked for farm safety-net enhancements, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.
In addition, other trade deals Trump has negotiated should see countries elsewhere in Asia step up purchases of U.S. crops.
For example Indonesia and Bangladesh have agreed to boost buying under their agreements, and sources told Reuters this past week that Vietnam, the Philippines and Thailand may increase feed grain purchases.
“There have been productive trade discussions which present an opportunity for the U.S. to strengthen its access to markets in our region,” said Timothy Loh, the U.S. Soybean Export Council’s regional director for Southeast Asia & Oceania, told Reuters.
“We are anticipating higher demand for U.S. products such as soymeal and other U.S. agricultural exports into Southeast Asia.”