
數周前,泡泡瑪特創始人王寧憑借兔耳毛絨玩具拉布布坐擁270億美元凈資產,身價一度超越硅谷傳奇人物彼得·蒂爾(Peter Thiel)。這款造型“丑萌”的玩偶曾被大衛·貝克漢姆(David Beckham)、BLACKPINK成員麗莎(Lisa)等一眾名人爭相展示,轉售價格被炒至令人咋舌的高位。
然而一旦那些“潮流獵手”興趣轉移,華爾街也會轉投其他領域,王寧正為此付出高昂代價。
自8月26日泡泡瑪特股價觸及峰值以來,其股票已暴跌約20%,市值縮水130億美元——相當于公司整體價值的四分之一——這場狂熱已顯露疲態。這家總部設于北京的玩具制造商,其港股在本周一持續下挫,單日最大跌幅達9%,創下自4月美國公布“解放日”關稅以來的最大單日跌幅。
據《福布斯》估算,自8月下旬以來,王寧個人凈資產已蒸發60億美元。
此次股價暴跌之前,周一摩根大通下調了泡泡瑪特評級,分析師警告稱,鑒于該公司股價在過去一年里飆升了427%,其估值“幾乎沒有容錯空間”。
泡泡瑪特沒有立即回應《財富》雜志的置評請求。
從狂熱到衰退
2024年大部分時間及2025年年初,泡泡瑪特一度成為恒生指數的寵兒——其拉布布玩偶在亞洲掀起搶購熱潮。但這種通過人為制造稀缺性而炒作起來的玩具(拉布布玩偶以收集難度極高著稱,且在二手交易市場和仿冒市場中頗為活躍)難以長久維持熱度。
康奈爾大學社交媒體研究員、傳播學教授布魯克·達菲(Brook Duffy)向《財富》雜志表示:“這一發展脈絡完美契合潮流必經的生命周期——從悄然興起,到逐漸飽和,直至最終消退。當外界對潮流的關注超出合理邊界,其社交價值便會立即貶損。”
她將拉布布的興衰類比為上世紀90年代“搔癢娃娃”掀起的熱潮:最初一物難求、難覓蹤影,繼而以鋪天蓋地之勢充斥市場,最終淪為過時玩物。
泡泡瑪特目前仍保持迅猛增長態勢,尚未出現逆轉跡象。過去兩年其銷售額激增,2024年營收實現了不止翻倍的飛躍,2025年上半年營收再度攀升200%。
但疲態初現:拉布布收藏品轉售價格下滑,分析師擔憂公司仍過度依賴單一產品。
達菲解釋道:“對Z世代而言,明星的炫耀堪稱轉折點。原本稀缺的物品,瞬間讓人覺得充斥著濃厚的商業氣息。”
摩根大通分析師在下調泡泡瑪特評級時也表達了類似質疑,他們將目標價從400港元調降至300港元。摩根大通稱,雖然泡泡瑪特上半年盈利狀況良好,且與優衣庫等品牌的合作也達到了預期,但包括拉布布動畫系列和互動玩具產品線在內的后續項目,目前仍帶有明顯的投機性質。
換言之,泡泡瑪特正淪為自身成功的犧牲品。在過去一年股價飆升五倍后,哪怕是轉售價格疲軟或產品質量傳聞這類小插曲,都可能引發大規模拋售。曾經看似銳不可當的增長傳奇,如今看起來更像是一場高風險博弈。
持久力考驗
核心問題在于,拉布布能否在熱潮退去后實現“軟著陸”,從一時風潮蛻變為持久品牌。
達菲表示:“新鮮感終將消退,只是我們無法預知具體何時到來。這種不可預測性讓營銷人員夜不能寐。”
泡泡瑪特正押注擴張戰略,計劃年底前在海外開設200家門店及自動售貨機“機器人商店”,目標是到2027年讓海外市場貢獻60%的收益。目前拉布布單品仍占銷售額三分之一以上。
不過維持文化影響力遠比擴大零售規模艱難得多。
達菲說:“當下正處于關鍵轉折點。在社交媒體時代,熱度周期推進速度極快。昨日風靡全球的事物,今日可能已因過度曝光而失去魅力。”
對王寧而言,時間緊迫:得設法讓拉布布保持新鮮感,否則這個價值數十億美元的吉祥物恐將淪為玩具箱里的過時玩物。(財富中文網)
譯者:中慧言-王芳
數周前,泡泡瑪特創始人王寧憑借兔耳毛絨玩具拉布布坐擁270億美元凈資產,身價一度超越硅谷傳奇人物彼得·蒂爾(Peter Thiel)。這款造型“丑萌”的玩偶曾被大衛·貝克漢姆(David Beckham)、BLACKPINK成員麗莎(Lisa)等一眾名人爭相展示,轉售價格被炒至令人咋舌的高位。
然而一旦那些“潮流獵手”興趣轉移,華爾街也會轉投其他領域,王寧正為此付出高昂代價。
自8月26日泡泡瑪特股價觸及峰值以來,其股票已暴跌約20%,市值縮水130億美元——相當于公司整體價值的四分之一——這場狂熱已顯露疲態。這家總部設于北京的玩具制造商,其港股在本周一持續下挫,單日最大跌幅達9%,創下自4月美國公布“解放日”關稅以來的最大單日跌幅。
據《福布斯》估算,自8月下旬以來,王寧個人凈資產已蒸發60億美元。
此次股價暴跌之前,周一摩根大通下調了泡泡瑪特評級,分析師警告稱,鑒于該公司股價在過去一年里飆升了427%,其估值“幾乎沒有容錯空間”。
泡泡瑪特沒有立即回應《財富》雜志的置評請求。
從狂熱到衰退
2024年大部分時間及2025年年初,泡泡瑪特一度成為恒生指數的寵兒——其拉布布玩偶在亞洲掀起搶購熱潮。但這種通過人為制造稀缺性而炒作起來的玩具(拉布布玩偶以收集難度極高著稱,且在二手交易市場和仿冒市場中頗為活躍)難以長久維持熱度。
康奈爾大學社交媒體研究員、傳播學教授布魯克·達菲(Brook Duffy)向《財富》雜志表示:“這一發展脈絡完美契合潮流必經的生命周期——從悄然興起,到逐漸飽和,直至最終消退。當外界對潮流的關注超出合理邊界,其社交價值便會立即貶損。”
她將拉布布的興衰類比為上世紀90年代“搔癢娃娃”掀起的熱潮:最初一物難求、難覓蹤影,繼而以鋪天蓋地之勢充斥市場,最終淪為過時玩物。
泡泡瑪特目前仍保持迅猛增長態勢,尚未出現逆轉跡象。過去兩年其銷售額激增,2024年營收實現了不止翻倍的飛躍,2025年上半年營收再度攀升200%。
但疲態初現:拉布布收藏品轉售價格下滑,分析師擔憂公司仍過度依賴單一產品。
達菲解釋道:“對Z世代而言,明星的炫耀堪稱轉折點。原本稀缺的物品,瞬間讓人覺得充斥著濃厚的商業氣息。”
摩根大通分析師在下調泡泡瑪特評級時也表達了類似質疑,他們將目標價從400港元調降至300港元。摩根大通稱,雖然泡泡瑪特上半年盈利狀況良好,且與優衣庫等品牌的合作也達到了預期,但包括拉布布動畫系列和互動玩具產品線在內的后續項目,目前仍帶有明顯的投機性質。
換言之,泡泡瑪特正淪為自身成功的犧牲品。在過去一年股價飆升五倍后,哪怕是轉售價格疲軟或產品質量傳聞這類小插曲,都可能引發大規模拋售。曾經看似銳不可當的增長傳奇,如今看起來更像是一場高風險博弈。
持久力考驗
核心問題在于,拉布布能否在熱潮退去后實現“軟著陸”,從一時風潮蛻變為持久品牌。
達菲表示:“新鮮感終將消退,只是我們無法預知具體何時到來。這種不可預測性讓營銷人員夜不能寐。”
泡泡瑪特正押注擴張戰略,計劃年底前在海外開設200家門店及自動售貨機“機器人商店”,目標是到2027年讓海外市場貢獻60%的收益。目前拉布布單品仍占銷售額三分之一以上。
不過維持文化影響力遠比擴大零售規模艱難得多。
達菲說:“當下正處于關鍵轉折點。在社交媒體時代,熱度周期推進速度極快。昨日風靡全球的事物,今日可能已因過度曝光而失去魅力。”
對王寧而言,時間緊迫:得設法讓拉布布保持新鮮感,否則這個價值數十億美元的吉祥物恐將淪為玩具箱里的過時玩物。(財富中文網)
譯者:中慧言-王芳
Just weeks ago, Pop Mart founder Wang Ning was riding high with a net worth of $27 billion, richer than Silicon Valley’s Peter Thiel, thanks to a rabbit-eared plush called Labubu. The “ugly-cute” doll has been flaunted by celebrities from David Beckham to Blackpink’s Lisa, pushing resale prices to dizzying heights.
But once the “cool hunters” move on, Wall Street does too, and Wang is finding that out the expensive way.
Since Pop Mart’s peak on Aug. 26, the stock has plunged about 20%, erasing $13 billion in market cap—a quarter of his company’s worth—as the craze shows its age. The Beijing-based toymaker’s Hong Kong stock continued to dive on Monday, sliding as much as 9% in its steepest single-day tumble since the U.S. unveiled “Liberation Day” tariffs in April.
Wang has personally lost $6 billion of his own net worth since late August, according to a Forbes estimate.
The sharp pullback follows a downgrade on Monday from JPMorgan, with analysts warning that the firm’s valuation leaves “little margin for error” after a 427% surge over the past year.
Pop Mart did not immediately respond to Fortune’s request for comment.
From craze to comedown
For much of 2024 and early 2025, Pop Mart was the darling of the Hang Seng Index as Labubu dolls sparked a frenzy across Asia. But a toy with a hype built on its engineered scarcity—Labubu dolls are notoriously difficult to collect and have a thriving resale and forgery market—cannot be valuable forever.
“The whole thing feels like the inevitable life cycle of something that becomes faddish, hits saturation, and then begins to fizzle,” Brook Duffy, a social media researcher and a communications professor at Cornell University, told Fortune. “Once too much attention gets lavished on a trend, it immediately loses its social currency.”
She compared Labubu’s rise and stall to the Tickle Me Elmo craze of the 1990s: first impossible to find, then suddenly everywhere, and finally no longer cool.
Pop Mart’s breakneck growth hasn’t reversed yet. Sales have surged over the past two years, with revenue more than doubling in 2024 and climbing another 200% in the first half of 2025.
But there are early signs of fatigue. Resale prices for Labubu collectibles are slipping, and analysts worry that the company remains heavily reliant on a single product.
“As soon as you saw celebrities showing them off, that was the tipping point for Gen Z,” Duffy explained. “What was scarce suddenly felt commercial.”
JPMorgan analysts echoed that skepticism in their downgrade, trimming their target price to HK$300 from HK$400. While Popmart’s first-half earnings and collaborations with brands like Uniqlo hit their marks, upcoming projects, including a Labubu animation series and interactive toy lines, have a speculative value so far, JPMorgan said.
Pop Mart, in other words, is a victim of its own success. After a five-fold stock rally over the past year, even minor disappointments—from weaker resale values or whispers about product quality—can trigger an outsized selloff. So what once looked like a runaway growth story now appears more to be a precarious bet.
A test of staying power
The deep question is whether Labubu can have a “soft landing” from its craze and evolve from fad to franchise.
“The novelty is always going to wear off,” Duffy said. “You just don’t know when. That unpredictability is what keeps marketers up at night.”
Pop Mart is betting big on expansion, seeking to operate 200 foreign stores and vending machine “roboshops” by year’s end, and aims for overseas markets to contribute 60% of earnings by 2027. Labubu alone still accounts for more than a third of sales.
But sustaining cultural relevance is harder than scaling retail.
“Right now feels like a critical inflection point,” Duffy said. “In a social media era, the hype cycle moves at breakneck speed. Something that was everywhere yesterday can feel overexposed today.”
For Wang, the clock is ticking: find a way to keep Labubu fresh, or risk watching his billion-dollar mascot fade into the toy box of past fads.