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          甲骨文3000億美元訂單再敲響“人工智能泡沫”警鐘

          Beatrice Nolan
          2025-09-20

          由于估值過高、回報率不及預期的早期跡象顯現(xiàn),再加上行業(yè)領軍人物的警示性言論,人們對人工智能領域可能存在泡沫的擔憂日益加劇。

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          人工智能泡沫風險再度引發(fā)警報。圖片來源:GETTY IMAGES

          上周,甲骨文(Oracle)與OpenAI達成的3000億美元巨額合作協(xié)議震驚華爾街,這份為期五年的合約不僅推動甲骨文股價大幅飆升,也讓一直暗流涌動的“人工智能泡沫”擔憂再度浮出水面。

          在最新季度財報電話會議上,甲骨文公布的業(yè)績預期令分析師震驚——其合同總額預計達4550億美元,較去年同期增長359%。這一樂觀的前瞻性數(shù)據(jù)推動該公司股價周三暴漲36%,創(chuàng)下史上最大單日漲幅紀錄,首席執(zhí)行官拉里·埃里森(Larry Ellison)也一度成為世界首富。

          甲骨文之所以能成功與OpenAI達成這項合作,部分原因在于埃里森積極聯(lián)絡英偉達首席執(zhí)行官黃仁勛。盡管此前甲骨文在云服務領域落后于其他競爭對手,但憑借這一戰(zhàn)略舉措,它囤積了大量頂級英偉達圖形處理器,一躍成為人工智能基礎設施領域的重要參與者。此次股價飆升,疊加該公司今年已實現(xiàn)的45%的漲幅,進一步鞏固了其人工智能驅(qū)動的復蘇態(tài)勢。

          然而,即便手握頂級圖形處理器讓甲骨文在基礎設施領域的地位顯著提升,部分分析師仍迅速發(fā)出警示:該公司的財務風險高度集中于單一且未經(jīng)市場驗證的客戶。據(jù)《華爾街日報》報道,在甲骨文4550億美元的剩余履約義務中,絕大部分源自與OpenAI達成的3000億美元協(xié)議。依據(jù)這項數(shù)十億美元的協(xié)議,這家人工智能企業(yè)將采用甲骨文的計算基礎設施,這亦是有史以來簽署的規(guī)模最大的云計算合同之一。此外,據(jù)《The Information》報道,該合約金額遠超OpenAI目前的營收水平——其年化營收近期才達到120億美元。

          需要注意的是,剩余履約義務僅代表已簽約但尚未交付的服務,并非確定性營收;客戶有可能延遲、重新協(xié)商甚至取消部分協(xié)議內(nèi)容。

          這一事件再度為人工智能潛在泡沫敲響警鐘。

          近期,由于估值過高、回報率不及預期的早期跡象顯現(xiàn),再加上行業(yè)領軍人物的警示性言論,人們對人工智能領域可能存在泡沫的擔憂日益加劇。麻省理工學院(MIT)近期開展的一項研究表明,盡管生成式人工智能項目投資已超過400億美元,但95%的人工智能試點項目未能收獲實質(zhì)性回報,這加劇了人們對投資炒作與實際成果脫節(jié)的擔憂。而在該報告發(fā)布前幾天,OpenAI首席執(zhí)行官薩姆·奧爾特曼(Sam Altman)也表示,他認為人工智能領域的私募市場正存在泡沫跡象,并對投資者過度熱情及部分初創(chuàng)企業(yè)估值過高表達了擔憂。

          人工智能專家加里·馬庫斯(Gary Marcus)自2023年起就持續(xù)警示人工智能可能存在泡沫及經(jīng)濟隱患,他將OpenAI與甲骨文的協(xié)議稱為“泡沫頂峰”。

          馬庫斯在訂閱制內(nèi)容平臺Substack發(fā)布的一篇文章中寫道:“甲骨文市值逼近萬億美元,本周漲幅近50%,而這一漲勢主要由一份顯然不具約束力的協(xié)議推動——協(xié)議另一方甚至缺乏足夠資金支付相關(guān)服務費用,此種情形比大多數(shù)泡沫現(xiàn)象都更為荒誕不經(jīng)?!?

          對該協(xié)議可信度提出質(zhì)疑的遠不止馬庫斯一人。

          科技作家、EZPR創(chuàng)始人兼首席執(zhí)行官埃德·齊特龍(Ed Zirtron)在博客文章中指出:“甲骨文和OpenAI此番操作荒謬至極,雙方試圖用一份無法履行的合同誤導投資者和整個市場,幾乎可以斷言OpenAI將在未來幾年耗盡現(xiàn)金。”齊特龍亦是人工智能炒作熱潮中直言不諱的質(zhì)疑者?!癘penAI宣稱將在2030年前超越英偉達的營收規(guī)模,然而卻需在未來四年籌集2500億美元資金,以支付與甲骨文達成的3000億美元計算服務合約——而甲骨文根本無法及時建成配套數(shù)據(jù)中心來履行這份協(xié)議?!?

          質(zhì)疑該交易經(jīng)濟合理性的不僅限于質(zhì)疑當前人工智能模型潛在價值的人士。

          人工智能研究員、OpenAI前政策研究部門負責人邁爾斯·布倫戴奇(Miles Brundage)在社交平臺X上發(fā)文補充道:“我并不認為人工智能存在泡沫,但投資者對OpenAI-甲骨文交易感到困惑或擔憂,完全在情理之中,哈哈。OpenAI連營利性轉(zhuǎn)型都尚未獲批,竟向外界承諾3000億美元?”

          投資者也對此提出疑問。Capital Market Laboratories首席執(zhí)行官奧菲爾·戈特利布(Ophir Gottlie)在X平臺上發(fā)文稱:“這一切究竟要如何落地?甲骨文必須購買芯片,并背負更多債務,而OpenAI的年營收僅為100億美元,卻要在未來五年每年投入600億美元用于資本支出。這怎么可能?”

          OpenAI近期還達成了多項數(shù)十億美元的交易,包括與博通(Broadcom)聯(lián)合開發(fā)定制人工智能芯片、價值100億美元的協(xié)議。此外,該公司仍在推進企業(yè)治理結(jié)構(gòu)重組工作,旨在助力其營利性業(yè)務籌集更多資金——不過近期已取得重大進展,領投方微軟表示將予以支持。

          綜合來看,OpenAI當前的營收規(guī)模與資本承諾,遠不足以全面履行與甲骨文的合約。分析師估算,要履行相關(guān)義務,該公司的年營收需達到數(shù)千億美元。

          OpenAI與甲骨文的代表均未立即回應《財富》雜志的置評請求。(財富中文網(wǎng))

          譯者:中慧言-王芳

          上周,甲骨文(Oracle)與OpenAI達成的3000億美元巨額合作協(xié)議震驚華爾街,這份為期五年的合約不僅推動甲骨文股價大幅飆升,也讓一直暗流涌動的“人工智能泡沫”擔憂再度浮出水面。

          在最新季度財報電話會議上,甲骨文公布的業(yè)績預期令分析師震驚——其合同總額預計達4550億美元,較去年同期增長359%。這一樂觀的前瞻性數(shù)據(jù)推動該公司股價周三暴漲36%,創(chuàng)下史上最大單日漲幅紀錄,首席執(zhí)行官拉里·埃里森(Larry Ellison)也一度成為世界首富。

          甲骨文之所以能成功與OpenAI達成這項合作,部分原因在于埃里森積極聯(lián)絡英偉達首席執(zhí)行官黃仁勛。盡管此前甲骨文在云服務領域落后于其他競爭對手,但憑借這一戰(zhàn)略舉措,它囤積了大量頂級英偉達圖形處理器,一躍成為人工智能基礎設施領域的重要參與者。此次股價飆升,疊加該公司今年已實現(xiàn)的45%的漲幅,進一步鞏固了其人工智能驅(qū)動的復蘇態(tài)勢。

          然而,即便手握頂級圖形處理器讓甲骨文在基礎設施領域的地位顯著提升,部分分析師仍迅速發(fā)出警示:該公司的財務風險高度集中于單一且未經(jīng)市場驗證的客戶。據(jù)《華爾街日報》報道,在甲骨文4550億美元的剩余履約義務中,絕大部分源自與OpenAI達成的3000億美元協(xié)議。依據(jù)這項數(shù)十億美元的協(xié)議,這家人工智能企業(yè)將采用甲骨文的計算基礎設施,這亦是有史以來簽署的規(guī)模最大的云計算合同之一。此外,據(jù)《The Information》報道,該合約金額遠超OpenAI目前的營收水平——其年化營收近期才達到120億美元。

          需要注意的是,剩余履約義務僅代表已簽約但尚未交付的服務,并非確定性營收;客戶有可能延遲、重新協(xié)商甚至取消部分協(xié)議內(nèi)容。

          這一事件再度為人工智能潛在泡沫敲響警鐘。

          近期,由于估值過高、回報率不及預期的早期跡象顯現(xiàn),再加上行業(yè)領軍人物的警示性言論,人們對人工智能領域可能存在泡沫的擔憂日益加劇。麻省理工學院(MIT)近期開展的一項研究表明,盡管生成式人工智能項目投資已超過400億美元,但95%的人工智能試點項目未能收獲實質(zhì)性回報,這加劇了人們對投資炒作與實際成果脫節(jié)的擔憂。而在該報告發(fā)布前幾天,OpenAI首席執(zhí)行官薩姆·奧爾特曼(Sam Altman)也表示,他認為人工智能領域的私募市場正存在泡沫跡象,并對投資者過度熱情及部分初創(chuàng)企業(yè)估值過高表達了擔憂。

          人工智能專家加里·馬庫斯(Gary Marcus)自2023年起就持續(xù)警示人工智能可能存在泡沫及經(jīng)濟隱患,他將OpenAI與甲骨文的協(xié)議稱為“泡沫頂峰”。

          馬庫斯在訂閱制內(nèi)容平臺Substack發(fā)布的一篇文章中寫道:“甲骨文市值逼近萬億美元,本周漲幅近50%,而這一漲勢主要由一份顯然不具約束力的協(xié)議推動——協(xié)議另一方甚至缺乏足夠資金支付相關(guān)服務費用,此種情形比大多數(shù)泡沫現(xiàn)象都更為荒誕不經(jīng)?!?

          對該協(xié)議可信度提出質(zhì)疑的遠不止馬庫斯一人。

          科技作家、EZPR創(chuàng)始人兼首席執(zhí)行官埃德·齊特龍(Ed Zirtron)在博客文章中指出:“甲骨文和OpenAI此番操作荒謬至極,雙方試圖用一份無法履行的合同誤導投資者和整個市場,幾乎可以斷言OpenAI將在未來幾年耗盡現(xiàn)金。”齊特龍亦是人工智能炒作熱潮中直言不諱的質(zhì)疑者?!癘penAI宣稱將在2030年前超越英偉達的營收規(guī)模,然而卻需在未來四年籌集2500億美元資金,以支付與甲骨文達成的3000億美元計算服務合約——而甲骨文根本無法及時建成配套數(shù)據(jù)中心來履行這份協(xié)議?!?

          質(zhì)疑該交易經(jīng)濟合理性的不僅限于質(zhì)疑當前人工智能模型潛在價值的人士。

          人工智能研究員、OpenAI前政策研究部門負責人邁爾斯·布倫戴奇(Miles Brundage)在社交平臺X上發(fā)文補充道:“我并不認為人工智能存在泡沫,但投資者對OpenAI-甲骨文交易感到困惑或擔憂,完全在情理之中,哈哈。OpenAI連營利性轉(zhuǎn)型都尚未獲批,竟向外界承諾3000億美元?”

          投資者也對此提出疑問。Capital Market Laboratories首席執(zhí)行官奧菲爾·戈特利布(Ophir Gottlie)在X平臺上發(fā)文稱:“這一切究竟要如何落地?甲骨文必須購買芯片,并背負更多債務,而OpenAI的年營收僅為100億美元,卻要在未來五年每年投入600億美元用于資本支出。這怎么可能?”

          OpenAI近期還達成了多項數(shù)十億美元的交易,包括與博通(Broadcom)聯(lián)合開發(fā)定制人工智能芯片、價值100億美元的協(xié)議。此外,該公司仍在推進企業(yè)治理結(jié)構(gòu)重組工作,旨在助力其營利性業(yè)務籌集更多資金——不過近期已取得重大進展,領投方微軟表示將予以支持。

          綜合來看,OpenAI當前的營收規(guī)模與資本承諾,遠不足以全面履行與甲骨文的合約。分析師估算,要履行相關(guān)義務,該公司的年營收需達到數(shù)千億美元。

          OpenAI與甲骨文的代表均未立即回應《財富》雜志的置評請求。(財富中文網(wǎng))

          譯者:中慧言-王芳

          Last week, Oracle surprised Wall Street with a massive $300 billion deal with OpenAI, a five-year deal that helped send Oracle’s stock soaring—and brought simmering fears of an ‘AI bubble’ back to the surface.

          Oracle shocked analysts in its latest quarterly earnings call with revenue projections that cited $455 billion in contracts, up 359% from a year earlier. The optimistic forward-looking numbers caused the company’s stock to jump 36% on Wednesday, the company’s biggest one-day increase ever, and briefly made CEO Larry Ellison the richest man in the world.

          Part of the reason Oracle was able to strike the deal with OpenAI at all is due to Ellison’s courting of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, which has allowed his company, despite previously trailing behind other cloud providers, to secure a large stockpile of top-of-the-line Nvidia GPUs and position itself as a significant player in the AI infrastructure space. The rally added to the 45% gain the company already notched up this year, and cemented Oracle’s AI-fueled comeback.

          But while securing top-tier GPUs has bolstered Oracle’s infrastructure position, some analysts were quick to warn that the financial risk was heavily concentrated in a single, unproven customer. According to a Wall Street Journal report, the bulk of the company’s $455 billion remaining performance obligations, or RPO, will come from the $300 billion deal OpenAI. The AI firm announced it will tap Oracle’s computing infrastructure under the multi billion deal, one of the largest cloud contracts ever signed. It also far exceeds OpenAI’s current revenue, which recently hit $12 billion in annualized revenue, per The Information.

          Because remaining performance obligations represent contracted but not yet delivered services, they are not guaranteed revenue; customers can delay, renegotiate, or even cancel portions of these commitments.

          Cue fresh alarm bells over a potential AI bubble.

          Fears that the AI sector might be in a bubble have intensified recently due to a combination of sky-high valuations, early signs of disappointing returns, and cautionary remarks from industry leaders. A recent study from MIT that found 95% of AI pilot programs fail to deliver meaningful returns, despite over $40 billion having been invested in generative AI projects, fueled fears that a gap was emerging between investment hype and real-world results. Days before the report was released, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman also said that he believed the AI sector might be experiencing a bubble in the private markets, expressing concern over the level of investor enthusiasm and the overvaluation of some startups.

          Gary Marcus, an AI expert who has been warning of a potential bubble and problematic economics of AI since 2023, called the OpenAI-Oracle deal “peak bubble.”

          “Oracle’s new market cap, near a trillion dollars, up nearly 50% this week, driven largely by this one apparently non-binding deal with a party that doesn’t have the money to pay for the services, seems more bonkers than most,” Marcus wrote in a Substack post.

          He wasn’t the only one raising alarms about the deal’s credibility.

          “This is a grotesque attempt by both Oracle and OpenAI to mislead investors and the markets at large with a contract that neither party can fulfill, and it virtually guarantees that OpenAI will run out of cash in the next few years,” Ed Zirtron, a technology writer and founder and CEO of EZPR who has also emerged as a vocal skeptic of the hype surrounding AI, said in a blog post. “OpenAI, while claiming it’ll make more revenue than NVIDIA by 2030, needs $250bn funding over the next four years to pay its $300bn compute contract with Oracle, who cannot physically build the data centers to service it in time.”

          And it wasn’t just those who doubt the underlying potential of today’s AI models that questioned the economics of the deal.

          “I’m not an AI bubble person, but it is very understandable for investors to be confused/concerned by the OpenAI-Oracle deal lol. OpenAI hasn’t even gotten the for-profit conversion approved and is promising people 300 billion dollars??” Miles Brundage, an AI researcher and former head of policy research at OpenAI, added in a post on X.

          Investors also had questions. “How is this all going to work exactly? ORCL has to buy the chips, take on more debt, while OpenAI has $10B in revenue but will spend $60B/yr in CapEx for five years. What?” Ophir Gottlieb, CEO of Capital Market Laboratories, wrote on X .

          OpenAI has made several other billion-dollar deals recently, including $10 billion to develop custom AI chips with Broadcom. The company is also still in the process of figuring out how exactly it’s going to restructure its corporate governance to allow its for-profit to raise more capital, although it’s made a significant step recently by getting lead investor Microsoft on board.

          Taken together, OpenAI’s current revenue and capital commitments fall far short of what would be needed to fully fund the Oracle contract, with analysts estimating the company would need hundreds of billions in annual revenue to meet these obligations.

          Representatives for OpenAI and Oracle did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Fortune.

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