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          美國房屋銷量或迎1995年以來最慘淡的一年

          Sydney Lake
          2025-09-26

          “經濟焦慮”情緒從購房者蔓延至售房者。

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          圖片來源:Getty Images

          隨著抵押貸款利率小幅回落、房價漲幅趨于平穩,美國房市近期獲得了一絲喘息空間。但買賣雙方仍持謹慎態度。

          掛牌房源持續減少:Redfin周一報告顯示,8月活躍房源量下降1.4%,創2023年以來最大月度降幅。

          Redfin經濟研究主管趙晨(Chen Zhao,音譯)在報告中指出:“高住房成本與經濟焦慮讓購房者惶惶不安,而這種不安情緒已蔓延至售房者。我們目前預計全年成屋銷售量將維持在405萬套左右,與2024年基本持平——2024年是1995年以來銷量最慘淡的一年。”

          當前住房市場僵局陷入無盡循環:購房者因抵押貸款利率和房價居高不下(Redfin數據顯示,房價同比上漲1.7%至440004美元)而不愿出手購房;房主既不愿為換房承擔更高的抵押貸款利率,又擔心售價達不到心理預期,因此不愿掛牌售房。

          這種僵局迫使部分售房者大幅降價或直接下架房源。據Realtor.com數據顯示,6月全美房源下架量同比激增47%,今年迄今累計漲幅達34%。

          Realtor.com高級經濟學家杰克·克里梅爾(Jake Krimmel)此前向《財富》雜志表示:“當前全美市場正逐步重歸平衡,購房者議價能力增強,售房者則面臨兩難抉擇:要么順應市場行情降價出售,要么堅持既定要價、承擔房源長期難以售出的風險。許多售房者仍未給出符合市場的定價。”

          Redfin數據顯示,受購房需求疲軟影響,售房者正紛紛下架房源。事實上,當前銷售量仍遠低于疫情前水平,而抵押貸款利率略有下降尚未顯現成效。

          “不過,倘若利率持續下降,局勢或將迎來逆轉;若秋季房市表現超出預期,今年成屋銷量最終可能會略高于去年。”趙晨寫道。

          Redfin數據顯示,8月抵押貸款利率降至6.59%,為10個月來最低月均水平。據《抵押貸款新聞日報》(Mortgage News Daily),截至周一,30年期固定抵押貸款利率為6.35%,較5月的7%有所下降。

          對于能讓購房者愿意申請抵押貸款的“利率臨界點”,各方存在爭議。芝加哥Redfin Premier房產經紀人貝絲·貝林(Beth Behling)在聲明中表示,她認為6%是關鍵臨界點,但其他專家指出利率需降至5%,才會產生實質性影響。

          Zillow在8月初發布的報告中指出,抵押貸款利率需降至約4.43%,普通購房者才得以負擔得起一套普通住房。盡管該房地產網站的經濟分析師阿努什娜·普拉卡什(Anushna Prakash)表示,鑒于要達到這一利率水平需大幅下降,此目標“不切實際”。

          弗吉尼亞州阿靈頓市房地產經紀人菲利帕·梅恩(Philippa Main)此前向《財富》雜志表示:“短期內利率不太可能降至4.5%左右。即便真能降到該水平,房價依然處于歷史高位。”(財富中文網)

          譯者:中慧言-王芳

          隨著抵押貸款利率小幅回落、房價漲幅趨于平穩,美國房市近期獲得了一絲喘息空間。但買賣雙方仍持謹慎態度。

          掛牌房源持續減少:Redfin周一報告顯示,8月活躍房源量下降1.4%,創2023年以來最大月度降幅。

          Redfin經濟研究主管趙晨(Chen Zhao,音譯)在報告中指出:“高住房成本與經濟焦慮讓購房者惶惶不安,而這種不安情緒已蔓延至售房者。我們目前預計全年成屋銷售量將維持在405萬套左右,與2024年基本持平——2024年是1995年以來銷量最慘淡的一年。”

          當前住房市場僵局陷入無盡循環:購房者因抵押貸款利率和房價居高不下(Redfin數據顯示,房價同比上漲1.7%至440004美元)而不愿出手購房;房主既不愿為換房承擔更高的抵押貸款利率,又擔心售價達不到心理預期,因此不愿掛牌售房。

          這種僵局迫使部分售房者大幅降價或直接下架房源。據Realtor.com數據顯示,6月全美房源下架量同比激增47%,今年迄今累計漲幅達34%。

          Realtor.com高級經濟學家杰克·克里梅爾(Jake Krimmel)此前向《財富》雜志表示:“當前全美市場正逐步重歸平衡,購房者議價能力增強,售房者則面臨兩難抉擇:要么順應市場行情降價出售,要么堅持既定要價、承擔房源長期難以售出的風險。許多售房者仍未給出符合市場的定價。”

          Redfin數據顯示,受購房需求疲軟影響,售房者正紛紛下架房源。事實上,當前銷售量仍遠低于疫情前水平,而抵押貸款利率略有下降尚未顯現成效。

          “不過,倘若利率持續下降,局勢或將迎來逆轉;若秋季房市表現超出預期,今年成屋銷量最終可能會略高于去年。”趙晨寫道。

          Redfin數據顯示,8月抵押貸款利率降至6.59%,為10個月來最低月均水平。據《抵押貸款新聞日報》(Mortgage News Daily),截至周一,30年期固定抵押貸款利率為6.35%,較5月的7%有所下降。

          對于能讓購房者愿意申請抵押貸款的“利率臨界點”,各方存在爭議。芝加哥Redfin Premier房產經紀人貝絲·貝林(Beth Behling)在聲明中表示,她認為6%是關鍵臨界點,但其他專家指出利率需降至5%,才會產生實質性影響。

          Zillow在8月初發布的報告中指出,抵押貸款利率需降至約4.43%,普通購房者才得以負擔得起一套普通住房。盡管該房地產網站的經濟分析師阿努什娜·普拉卡什(Anushna Prakash)表示,鑒于要達到這一利率水平需大幅下降,此目標“不切實際”。

          弗吉尼亞州阿靈頓市房地產經紀人菲利帕·梅恩(Philippa Main)此前向《財富》雜志表示:“短期內利率不太可能降至4.5%左右。即便真能降到該水平,房價依然處于歷史高位。”(財富中文網)

          譯者:中慧言-王芳

          There’s recently been a little bit of breathing room in the U.S. housing market as mortgage rates have slightly declined and home price increases have started to steady. But both buyers and sellers are still cautious.

          Fewer homeowners are putting their homes on the market: Active listings fell 1.4% in August, which represents the biggest monthly decline since 2023, according to a Monday report from Redfin.

          “High housing costs and economic jitters have rattled buyers, and that unease has spilled over to sellers,” Chen Zhao, Redfin’s head of economics research, wrote in the report. “We currently expect existing-home sales to end the year at around 4.05 million, or roughly flat compared to 2024, which was the worst year for sales since 1995.”

          The housing market is stuck in an unending circle of gridlock: Buyers aren’t inclined to purchase a home because mortgage rates and home prices are too high (they’re up 1.7% year over year at $440,004, according to Redfin). And homeowners don’t want to sell their homes to trade for a higher mortgage rate and out of fear they won’t get what they think their home is worth.

          That gridlock has forced some sellers to slash asking prices or pull their listings off the market altogether. Delistings—or taking a home off the market—jumped 47% nationally in June from a year ago, according to Realtor.com, and are up 34% year to date.

          “What we’re seeing nationally is a market that’s gradually rebalancing, with buyers gaining leverage and sellers facing a tradeoff: Adjust to the market and sell for less, or hold out and risk sitting indefinitely,” Realtor.com Senior Economist Jake Krimmel previously told Fortune. “Many sellers still aren’t pricing to sell.”

          Redfin data shows sellers have been pulling back because homebuyer demand is sluggish. In fact, sales are still far lower than even pre-pandemic levels, and the slight drop in mortgage rates hasn’t proven to be effective yet.

          “But that may change if rates continue declining; if we get a stronger-than-expected fall housing market, existing-home sales could end this year a little higher than last year,” Chen wrote.

          Redfin’s figures show mortgage rates fell to 6.59% in August, the lowest monthly average in 10 months. According to Mortgage News Daily, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage as of Monday is 6.35%, down from 7% in May.

          There is debate about the magic number it would take for buyers to be inclined to take out a mortgage. While Beth Behling, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in Chicago, said in a statement she thinks the magic number is 6%, others have said closer to 5% would make more of a meaningful difference.

          Zillow reported in early August it would take mortgage rates dropping to about 4.43% to make an average home affordable for a typical buyer—although the real estate site’s economic analyst Anushna Prakash said this was “unrealistic” considering the huge drop required to get there.

          “It’s unlikely rates will drop to the mid-[4% range] anytime soon,” Arlington, Va.-based real estate agent Philippa Main previously told Fortune. “And even if they did, housing prices are still at historic highs.”

          財富中文網所刊載內容之知識產權為財富媒體知識產權有限公司及/或相關權利人專屬所有或持有。未經許可,禁止進行轉載、摘編、復制及建立鏡像等任何使用。
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