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          摩根大通CEO認(rèn)為,美國股市“處于某種泡沫區(qū)間”

          Nick Lichtenberg
          2025-10-16

          他同時(shí)重申:“人們不應(yīng)再對失業(yè)問題視而不見。”

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          摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)首席執(zhí)行官杰米·戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)。圖片來源:Jose Sarmento Matos—Bloomberg/Getty Images

          杰米·戴蒙本周可謂風(fēng)光無限:在摩根大通公布最新亮眼財(cái)報(bào)之際,這位華爾街極具影響力(甚至有人認(rèn)為是最具影響力)的人物發(fā)表了諸多見解。周二,這位投行首席執(zhí)行官現(xiàn)身華盛頓特區(qū),與《財(cái)富》雜志總編尚艾儷(Alyson Shontell)共同出席“最具影響力商界女性峰會”。當(dāng)話題轉(zhuǎn)向2025年最熱門議題——人工智能是否存在泡沫時(shí),戴蒙表示這一說法并不完全準(zhǔn)確,但他同時(shí)重申近期反復(fù)強(qiáng)調(diào)的觀點(diǎn):“人們不應(yīng)再對失業(yè)問題視而不見。”

          “人工智能會淘汰工作崗位,”戴蒙指出,其情形就如同當(dāng)年拖拉機(jī)與汽車問世時(shí)一樣。“技術(shù)變革日新月異,”他如此形容突如其來的顛覆性變革,并敦促社會、政府和企業(yè)共同“探索保就業(yè)之道”,無論是通過再培訓(xùn)、提供新收入形式,還是推行提前退休政策。他強(qiáng)調(diào)必須采取措施:“不能讓這些人淪落街頭……當(dāng)他們的年薪從15萬美元驟降至3萬美元時(shí),社會動蕩在所難免。”

          他堅(jiān)稱這項(xiàng)突破真實(shí)存在且不容小覷。“人工智能本身是真實(shí)存在的,”他宣稱,明確表示這項(xiàng)底層技術(shù)既具顛覆性又有持久性。“你們應(yīng)當(dāng)運(yùn)用這項(xiàng)技術(shù),”他對所有聽眾如是說。但他發(fā)出警示:1996年時(shí)“互聯(lián)網(wǎng)同樣真實(shí)存在”,“當(dāng)時(shí)整個行業(yè)看起來就像一場泡沫”。隨后他剖析了人工智能與生成式人工智能的本質(zhì)差異。戴蒙強(qiáng)調(diào)這點(diǎn)至關(guān)重要,同時(shí)承認(rèn)“某些資產(chǎn)價(jià)格偏高,已處于某種泡沫區(qū)間”。

          泡沫之爭

          戴蒙將當(dāng)前的人工智能熱潮與互聯(lián)網(wǎng)發(fā)展初期的情況作了對比,稱互聯(lián)網(wǎng)發(fā)展初期“從整體來看,是有所回報(bào)的”,因?yàn)楣雀琛⒂凸埽╕ouTube)和Meta最終成功崛起,且長期屹立不倒。他表示對當(dāng)前市場狀況持一定的謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度,但敦促人們不要簡單地將所有人工智能都貼上投機(jī)狂熱的標(biāo)簽。"你不能將人工智能整體視為泡沫,盡管其中某些領(lǐng)域可能存在泡沫。總體而言,它終將帶來回報(bào)。“他坦言部分項(xiàng)目不會按原計(jì)劃推進(jìn),另一些則能獲得所需支持,但拒絕討論個例,主張對投資進(jìn)行個案評估。就在數(shù)日前,戴蒙在接受英國廣播公司(BBC)采訪時(shí)還警告稱,美股有30%的概率出現(xiàn)回調(diào),自稱“比其他人擔(dān)憂得多”。

          在戴蒙的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下,摩根大通自2012年起已在人工智能和機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)領(lǐng)域投入數(shù)十億美元,目前有超過2000名員工專職從事人工智能相關(guān)工作,且已有數(shù)百項(xiàng)應(yīng)用投入使用。他透露,這些投入已帶來切實(shí)收益,節(jié)省的成本或創(chuàng)造的新收入流價(jià)值超20億美元。戴蒙表示,人工智能已無縫融入摩根大通的運(yùn)營體系,從欺詐防范、客戶服務(wù)到復(fù)雜法律文件分析均有應(yīng)用。

          這位首席執(zhí)行官作出關(guān)鍵區(qū)分:該行將人工智能應(yīng)用于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管控、欺詐防范以及市場營銷等“極為具體的領(lǐng)域”,且已見證其成效。他認(rèn)為人工智能的應(yīng)用有時(shí)難以與單純的流程改進(jìn)區(qū)分開來,就像進(jìn)入新工作流程后,“突然發(fā)現(xiàn)員工數(shù)量減少了40%”。

          但對于以“幻覺”問題著稱的生成式人工智能,戴蒙將其歸為“另一類”。他表示,生成式人工智能的效率提升多為傳聞,比如有人稱它節(jié)省了數(shù)小時(shí)工時(shí)。“但這究竟值多少錢?你是不是花兩小時(shí)時(shí)間做了其他事?我們其實(shí)并不清楚。”針對麻省理工學(xué)院(MIT)一項(xiàng)頗具影響力的研究——該研究發(fā)現(xiàn)95%的生成式人工智能試點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目未能實(shí)現(xiàn)投資回報(bào),戴蒙認(rèn)為,過于精確地計(jì)算效率會陷入誤區(qū):“我們投入大量資金將數(shù)據(jù)整理成人工智能可用的格式,我們只是在推進(jìn)這件事,并沒有核算成本。”他強(qiáng)調(diào)數(shù)據(jù)準(zhǔn)確性至關(guān)重要,效率自然會隨之提升。戴蒙補(bǔ)充道,他曾與其他公司的首席執(zhí)行官朋友通電話,發(fā)現(xiàn)大多數(shù)人工智能應(yīng)用“確實(shí)有效”,但也承認(rèn)部分應(yīng)用可能不盡如人意。

          大師班

          在這個快速變革的時(shí)代,戴蒙認(rèn)為靈活應(yīng)變與保持謙遜至關(guān)重要。“運(yùn)用它,精通它,讓它成為你工具箱和武器庫的一部分,你會在這個過程中不斷學(xué)習(xí)。人工智能本身也會不斷得到改進(jìn)。”他建議其他企業(yè)高管持續(xù)投入員工培訓(xùn)與適應(yīng)能力建設(shè)。摩根大通甚至開始安排管理者參加人工智能“大師班”,以提升技能、拓展組織專業(yè)能力。

          隨著全球人工智能投資熱潮持續(xù)推動市場發(fā)展——據(jù)估算,2025年人工智能對美國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長的貢獻(xiàn)率將達(dá)到40%——戴蒙的觀點(diǎn)因其坦率與審慎而顯得尤為突出。這位務(wù)實(shí)派人士呼吁出臺審慎的監(jiān)管政策、建立強(qiáng)有力的保障體系,并制定周密計(jì)劃,以減輕人工智能帶來的沖擊,同時(shí)把握其帶來的機(jī)遇。對政策制定者和企業(yè)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者而言,戴蒙的警示清晰明確:人工智能時(shí)代已然來臨,最糟糕的應(yīng)對方式便是否認(rèn)或拖延。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

          譯者:中慧言-王芳

          杰米·戴蒙本周可謂風(fēng)光無限:在摩根大通公布最新亮眼財(cái)報(bào)之際,這位華爾街極具影響力(甚至有人認(rèn)為是最具影響力)的人物發(fā)表了諸多見解。周二,這位投行首席執(zhí)行官現(xiàn)身華盛頓特區(qū),與《財(cái)富》雜志總編尚艾儷(Alyson Shontell)共同出席“最具影響力商界女性峰會”。當(dāng)話題轉(zhuǎn)向2025年最熱門議題——人工智能是否存在泡沫時(shí),戴蒙表示這一說法并不完全準(zhǔn)確,但他同時(shí)重申近期反復(fù)強(qiáng)調(diào)的觀點(diǎn):“人們不應(yīng)再對失業(yè)問題視而不見。”

          “人工智能會淘汰工作崗位,”戴蒙指出,其情形就如同當(dāng)年拖拉機(jī)與汽車問世時(shí)一樣。“技術(shù)變革日新月異,”他如此形容突如其來的顛覆性變革,并敦促社會、政府和企業(yè)共同“探索保就業(yè)之道”,無論是通過再培訓(xùn)、提供新收入形式,還是推行提前退休政策。他強(qiáng)調(diào)必須采取措施:“不能讓這些人淪落街頭……當(dāng)他們的年薪從15萬美元驟降至3萬美元時(shí),社會動蕩在所難免。”

          他堅(jiān)稱這項(xiàng)突破真實(shí)存在且不容小覷。“人工智能本身是真實(shí)存在的,”他宣稱,明確表示這項(xiàng)底層技術(shù)既具顛覆性又有持久性。“你們應(yīng)當(dāng)運(yùn)用這項(xiàng)技術(shù),”他對所有聽眾如是說。但他發(fā)出警示:1996年時(shí)“互聯(lián)網(wǎng)同樣真實(shí)存在”,“當(dāng)時(shí)整個行業(yè)看起來就像一場泡沫”。隨后他剖析了人工智能與生成式人工智能的本質(zhì)差異。戴蒙強(qiáng)調(diào)這點(diǎn)至關(guān)重要,同時(shí)承認(rèn)“某些資產(chǎn)價(jià)格偏高,已處于某種泡沫區(qū)間”。

          泡沫之爭

          戴蒙將當(dāng)前的人工智能熱潮與互聯(lián)網(wǎng)發(fā)展初期的情況作了對比,稱互聯(lián)網(wǎng)發(fā)展初期“從整體來看,是有所回報(bào)的”,因?yàn)楣雀琛⒂凸埽╕ouTube)和Meta最終成功崛起,且長期屹立不倒。他表示對當(dāng)前市場狀況持一定的謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度,但敦促人們不要簡單地將所有人工智能都貼上投機(jī)狂熱的標(biāo)簽。"你不能將人工智能整體視為泡沫,盡管其中某些領(lǐng)域可能存在泡沫。總體而言,它終將帶來回報(bào)。“他坦言部分項(xiàng)目不會按原計(jì)劃推進(jìn),另一些則能獲得所需支持,但拒絕討論個例,主張對投資進(jìn)行個案評估。就在數(shù)日前,戴蒙在接受英國廣播公司(BBC)采訪時(shí)還警告稱,美股有30%的概率出現(xiàn)回調(diào),自稱“比其他人擔(dān)憂得多”。

          在戴蒙的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下,摩根大通自2012年起已在人工智能和機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)領(lǐng)域投入數(shù)十億美元,目前有超過2000名員工專職從事人工智能相關(guān)工作,且已有數(shù)百項(xiàng)應(yīng)用投入使用。他透露,這些投入已帶來切實(shí)收益,節(jié)省的成本或創(chuàng)造的新收入流價(jià)值超20億美元。戴蒙表示,人工智能已無縫融入摩根大通的運(yùn)營體系,從欺詐防范、客戶服務(wù)到復(fù)雜法律文件分析均有應(yīng)用。

          這位首席執(zhí)行官作出關(guān)鍵區(qū)分:該行將人工智能應(yīng)用于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管控、欺詐防范以及市場營銷等“極為具體的領(lǐng)域”,且已見證其成效。他認(rèn)為人工智能的應(yīng)用有時(shí)難以與單純的流程改進(jìn)區(qū)分開來,就像進(jìn)入新工作流程后,“突然發(fā)現(xiàn)員工數(shù)量減少了40%”。

          但對于以“幻覺”問題著稱的生成式人工智能,戴蒙將其歸為“另一類”。他表示,生成式人工智能的效率提升多為傳聞,比如有人稱它節(jié)省了數(shù)小時(shí)工時(shí)。“但這究竟值多少錢?你是不是花兩小時(shí)時(shí)間做了其他事?我們其實(shí)并不清楚。”針對麻省理工學(xué)院(MIT)一項(xiàng)頗具影響力的研究——該研究發(fā)現(xiàn)95%的生成式人工智能試點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目未能實(shí)現(xiàn)投資回報(bào),戴蒙認(rèn)為,過于精確地計(jì)算效率會陷入誤區(qū):“我們投入大量資金將數(shù)據(jù)整理成人工智能可用的格式,我們只是在推進(jìn)這件事,并沒有核算成本。”他強(qiáng)調(diào)數(shù)據(jù)準(zhǔn)確性至關(guān)重要,效率自然會隨之提升。戴蒙補(bǔ)充道,他曾與其他公司的首席執(zhí)行官朋友通電話,發(fā)現(xiàn)大多數(shù)人工智能應(yīng)用“確實(shí)有效”,但也承認(rèn)部分應(yīng)用可能不盡如人意。

          大師班

          在這個快速變革的時(shí)代,戴蒙認(rèn)為靈活應(yīng)變與保持謙遜至關(guān)重要。“運(yùn)用它,精通它,讓它成為你工具箱和武器庫的一部分,你會在這個過程中不斷學(xué)習(xí)。人工智能本身也會不斷得到改進(jìn)。”他建議其他企業(yè)高管持續(xù)投入員工培訓(xùn)與適應(yīng)能力建設(shè)。摩根大通甚至開始安排管理者參加人工智能“大師班”,以提升技能、拓展組織專業(yè)能力。

          隨著全球人工智能投資熱潮持續(xù)推動市場發(fā)展——據(jù)估算,2025年人工智能對美國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長的貢獻(xiàn)率將達(dá)到40%——戴蒙的觀點(diǎn)因其坦率與審慎而顯得尤為突出。這位務(wù)實(shí)派人士呼吁出臺審慎的監(jiān)管政策、建立強(qiáng)有力的保障體系,并制定周密計(jì)劃,以減輕人工智能帶來的沖擊,同時(shí)把握其帶來的機(jī)遇。對政策制定者和企業(yè)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者而言,戴蒙的警示清晰明確:人工智能時(shí)代已然來臨,最糟糕的應(yīng)對方式便是否認(rèn)或拖延。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

          譯者:中慧言-王芳

          Jamie Dimon has had a big week: As JPMorgan released its latest blockbuster earnings, he held forth as a leading (some would say the leading) voice on Wall Street. The investment bank CEO was in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, appearing at the Fortune Most Powerful Women Summit with editor-in-chief Alyson Shontell, when the subject turned to everyone’s favorite conversation in 2025: the AI bubble, or lack thereof. Dimon said that isn’t quite right in his opinion, but also that he thinks “people should stop sticking their head in the sand” on the subject of job loss, reiterating a favorite recent refrain of his.

          “It will eliminate jobs,” Dimon said, pointing out that so did tractors and cars, once upon a time. “It happens too fast,” he said, referring to sudden, disruptive technological change. He urged society, government, and business to “figure out how we can save jobs,” whether that’s through retraining, a new form of income, early retirement, he said there’s a need for “something—you can’t just take all these people and throw them on the street … making $30,000 a year when they were making [$150,000], you’ll have a revolution.”

          He insisted that the breakthrough is genuine and worth taking seriously. “AI itself is real,” he declared, making clear that he sees the underlying technology as both transformative and enduring. “You should be using it,” he said, speaking to any business that was listening. But he added a caveat, saying that back in 1996, “the internet was real,” and “you could look at the whole thing like it was a bubble.” Then he broke down the real difference that he sees—between AI, on the one hand, and generative AI, on the other. It’s an important distinction, Dimon said, while adding that “some asset prices are high, in some form of bubble territory.”

          Bubble or not

          Dimon compared today’s AI exuberance to the early days of the internet, calling that “in total, a payoff,” as Google, YouTube, and Meta eventually emerged and proved durable. He said he was somewhat cautious about conditions in the current market, yet he urged people not to simply label all of AI as a speculative frenzy. “You can’t look at AI as a bubble, though some of these things may be in the bubble. In total, it’ll probably pay off.” He said some projects won’t be done the way they were announced, others will get the power they need, but he declined to discuss them in particular, urging a case-by-case evaluation of investments. Just days earlier, Dimon had warned in a BBC interview that he saw a 30% chance of a correction in the stock market, calling himself “far more worried than others.”

          Under Dimon’s leadership, JPMorgan has invested billions in artificial intelligence and machine learning since 2012, with more than 2,000 staff now dedicated to AI and hundreds of applications in production. He has cited tangible benefits worth upwards of $2 billion in cost savings or new revenue streams. Dimon described AI as being seamlessly embedded in JPMorgan’s operations, from fraud prevention to customer service to the analysis of complex legal documents.

          The CEO made a crucial distinction, saying that his bank has applied AI to “very specific things” such as risk and fraud and marketing, and he’s seen that it works. He argued that AI adoption is sometimes hard to distinguish from pure procedural improvement, likening it to going into a new work stream, “and all of a sudden your headcount’s down 40%.”

          But Dimon put generative AI, which is famously prone to hallucination, in “the other category.” He said this is largely anecdotal in terms of efficiencies, with some people arguing it saves them hours. “What’s that worth? Did you just spend two hours doing something else? We don’t really know.” Responding to the influential MIT study that found 95% of generative AI pilots had failed to yield return on investment, Dimon said he thinks it’s a mistake to try to calculate everything so carefully in terms of efficiencies: “We spend a lot of money getting data into the proper format, so it’ll be used by AI. We’re just doing it. We’re not measuring how much it costs.” Getting the data right is imperative, he argued, and then efficiencies will follow. Dimon added that he calls friends at other companies, other CEOs, and most AI adoption stories “actually work,” acknowledging that some are maybe disappointed, too.

          The master class

          For Dimon, agility and humility are paramount in this era of rapid change. “Use it. Get good at it. Make it part of your tool set, your weapon set, and you’ll learn. It’ll get better all the time.” He advised fellow executives to make ongoing investments in training and adaptation. JPMorgan has even begun sending managers to AI “master classes” to deepen their skills and broaden organizational expertise.

          As the global AI investment boom continues to lift markets—accounting for an estimated 40% of U.S. GDP growth in 2025—Dimon’s voice stands out for its candor and caution. Ever the pragmatist, he called for thoughtful regulation, robust safety nets, and deliberate planning to mitigate AI’s impacts and harness its opportunities. For policy and corporate leaders alike, Dimon’s message is unmistakable: The AI era is here, and the worst response is denial or delay.

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