
OpenAI正規劃截至本十年末的盈利逆襲之路,但實現增長需經歷陣痛期。《華爾街日報》獲取的財務文件顯示,該公司預計未來數年將持續面臨巨額虧損,僅2028年就將出現約740億美元的運營虧損,隨后將在2030年前實現爆發式盈利。
今年夏季向投資者披露的文件顯示,其激進增長戰略依賴前期在計算基礎設施、芯片及數據中心的巨額投入。CEO薩姆·奧爾特曼稱,要滿足其眼中“對人工智能能力永無止境的需求”,這一支出必不可少。該公司預計今年銷售額將達到130億美元,同期現金消耗約為90億美元,現金消耗率約占營收的70%。
但財務狀況在出現好轉前將進一步惡化。文件顯示,受算力成本飆升推動,OpenAI預計到2028年,其運營虧損將增至當年營收的四分之三左右。據《華爾街日報》報道,競爭對手Anthropic則預計在同年實現盈虧平衡。
這些數字凸顯了兩大最具價值人工智能初創企業之間的巨大分歧。盡管兩家公司當前的現金消耗率(相對于營收)相近,但未來發展路徑截然不同。Anthropic預計2026年現金消耗率將降至營收的三分之一左右,到2027年進一步降至9%。相比之下,OpenAI預計2026年和2027年的現金消耗率仍將維持在57%。
OpenAI的計劃本質上是一場對“行業主導地位”的豪賭。該公司近期宣布,在未來八年里,已與云計算及芯片巨頭簽署總額高達1.4萬億美元的計算服務協議。僅為應對未來產品和研發的潛在需求,其備用數據中心容量投資就接近1000億美元。
OpenAI發言人向《華爾街日報》表示:“當前人工智能需求已超過現有計算資源供給。我們投入人工智能基礎設施的每一美元,都用于服務數億依賴ChatGPT提升工作效率的消費者、企業和開發者。”
OpenAI未立即回應《財富》雜志置評請求。
奧爾特曼為OpenAI制定的戰略需要持續融資以維持公司運轉,但如果市場對人工智能或其短期盈利能力的信心下降,那么該戰略可能適得其反。近幾周,出于對人工智能領域過高支出的顧慮,加之擔憂相關營收難以支撐大規模基礎設施建設,投資者已拋售美股科技巨頭股票。
這些財務數據是在OpenAI簽署一系列新計算服務協議之前披露的,這意味著公司實際支出可能超出文件預期。據The Information報道,預計到2029年,OpenAI累計現金消耗將達1150億美元。
該公司對最終實現扭虧為盈的樂觀預期,建立在營收將實現爆發式增長的預測之上。預計到2030年,OpenAI年營收將達到約2000億美元,且將在2029年或2030年實現正向現金流。這些數字較此前向投資者披露的預測大幅提升。
OpenAI首席財務官莎拉·弗里爾(Sarah Friar)上周表示,公司利潤率狀況良好,若有意向,完全可以實現盈虧平衡。她強調了OpenAI企業業務的快速增長,并指出這家初創公司仍在探索新商業模式。
奧爾特曼為巨額基礎設施投入辯護,稱這是戰略必需。
“我們認為OpenAI面臨的算力不足風險,遠比算力過剩風險更為突出,且發生概率更高。”他上周在X平臺(原推特)發文稱。
OpenAI與Anthropic的戰略差異,折射出人工智能熱潮下兩種截然不同的發展理念。Anthropic成本增速更貼近營收增速,且專注于提升企業客戶銷售額(占其營收的80%左右)。值得注意的是,Anthropic正規避OpenAI在圖像與視頻生成領域的高成本嘗試——這類業務需要消耗大量算力資源。OpenAI新推出的視頻創作應用Sora 2,據稱每日成本可能高達數百萬美元。
與此同時,OpenAI正加速業務多元化布局。該公司近期推出了Sora 2模型及其首款網頁瀏覽器Atlas,同時正與喬納森·艾維(Jony Ive)的設計公司合作開發消費級硬件設備,開展人形機器人研發,并計劃為ChatGPT添加電商與廣告功能。OpenAI的豪賭能否成功,取決于市場對其產品的需求能否繼續以足以支撐這筆前所未有的開支的速度增長。據測算,在實現盈利前,該公司的現金消耗預計將達到Anthropic的約14倍。(財富中文網)
《財富》雜志使用生成式人工智能完成初稿,經編輯核實信息準確性后發布。
譯者:中慧言-王芳
OpenAI正規劃截至本十年末的盈利逆襲之路,但實現增長需經歷陣痛期。《華爾街日報》獲取的財務文件顯示,該公司預計未來數年將持續面臨巨額虧損,僅2028年就將出現約740億美元的運營虧損,隨后將在2030年前實現爆發式盈利。
今年夏季向投資者披露的文件顯示,其激進增長戰略依賴前期在計算基礎設施、芯片及數據中心的巨額投入。CEO薩姆·奧爾特曼稱,要滿足其眼中“對人工智能能力永無止境的需求”,這一支出必不可少。該公司預計今年銷售額將達到130億美元,同期現金消耗約為90億美元,現金消耗率約占營收的70%。
但財務狀況在出現好轉前將進一步惡化。文件顯示,受算力成本飆升推動,OpenAI預計到2028年,其運營虧損將增至當年營收的四分之三左右。據《華爾街日報》報道,競爭對手Anthropic則預計在同年實現盈虧平衡。
這些數字凸顯了兩大最具價值人工智能初創企業之間的巨大分歧。盡管兩家公司當前的現金消耗率(相對于營收)相近,但未來發展路徑截然不同。Anthropic預計2026年現金消耗率將降至營收的三分之一左右,到2027年進一步降至9%。相比之下,OpenAI預計2026年和2027年的現金消耗率仍將維持在57%。
OpenAI的計劃本質上是一場對“行業主導地位”的豪賭。該公司近期宣布,在未來八年里,已與云計算及芯片巨頭簽署總額高達1.4萬億美元的計算服務協議。僅為應對未來產品和研發的潛在需求,其備用數據中心容量投資就接近1000億美元。
OpenAI發言人向《華爾街日報》表示:“當前人工智能需求已超過現有計算資源供給。我們投入人工智能基礎設施的每一美元,都用于服務數億依賴ChatGPT提升工作效率的消費者、企業和開發者。”
OpenAI未立即回應《財富》雜志置評請求。
奧爾特曼為OpenAI制定的戰略需要持續融資以維持公司運轉,但如果市場對人工智能或其短期盈利能力的信心下降,那么該戰略可能適得其反。近幾周,出于對人工智能領域過高支出的顧慮,加之擔憂相關營收難以支撐大規模基礎設施建設,投資者已拋售美股科技巨頭股票。
這些財務數據是在OpenAI簽署一系列新計算服務協議之前披露的,這意味著公司實際支出可能超出文件預期。據The Information報道,預計到2029年,OpenAI累計現金消耗將達1150億美元。
該公司對最終實現扭虧為盈的樂觀預期,建立在營收將實現爆發式增長的預測之上。預計到2030年,OpenAI年營收將達到約2000億美元,且將在2029年或2030年實現正向現金流。這些數字較此前向投資者披露的預測大幅提升。
OpenAI首席財務官莎拉·弗里爾(Sarah Friar)上周表示,公司利潤率狀況良好,若有意向,完全可以實現盈虧平衡。她強調了OpenAI企業業務的快速增長,并指出這家初創公司仍在探索新商業模式。
奧爾特曼為巨額基礎設施投入辯護,稱這是戰略必需。
“我們認為OpenAI面臨的算力不足風險,遠比算力過剩風險更為突出,且發生概率更高。”他上周在X平臺(原推特)發文稱。
OpenAI與Anthropic的戰略差異,折射出人工智能熱潮下兩種截然不同的發展理念。Anthropic成本增速更貼近營收增速,且專注于提升企業客戶銷售額(占其營收的80%左右)。值得注意的是,Anthropic正規避OpenAI在圖像與視頻生成領域的高成本嘗試——這類業務需要消耗大量算力資源。OpenAI新推出的視頻創作應用Sora 2,據稱每日成本可能高達數百萬美元。
與此同時,OpenAI正加速業務多元化布局。該公司近期推出了Sora 2模型及其首款網頁瀏覽器Atlas,同時正與喬納森·艾維(Jony Ive)的設計公司合作開發消費級硬件設備,開展人形機器人研發,并計劃為ChatGPT添加電商與廣告功能。OpenAI的豪賭能否成功,取決于市場對其產品的需求能否繼續以足以支撐這筆前所未有的開支的速度增長。據測算,在實現盈利前,該公司的現金消耗預計將達到Anthropic的約14倍。(財富中文網)
《財富》雜志使用生成式人工智能完成初稿,經編輯核實信息準確性后發布。
譯者:中慧言-王芳
OpenAI is plotting a dramatic arc toward profitability through the end of the decade, but that growing won’t come without some pain. The company reportedly expects to rack up massive annual losses each year, including roughly $74 billion in operating losses in 2028 alone, then pivot to meaningful profits by 2030, according to financial documents obtained by The Wall Street Journal.
The documents, which were shared with investors this summer, reveal an aggressive growth strategy that hinges on massive upfront investment in computing infrastructure, chips and data centers—spending that CEO Sam Altman has described as necessary to meet what he sees as insatiable demand for AI capabilities. The company anticipates burning through roughly $9 billion this year on $13 billion in sales, a cash burn rate of approximately 70% of revenue.
But the financial trajectory only gets steeper before it improves. The documents show OpenAI projects that by 2028, its operating losses will balloon to roughly three-quarters of that year’s revenue, driven primarily by ballooning spending on computing costs. That’s the same year competitor Anthropic expects to break even, according to WSJ.
The numbers underscore the stark divergence between the two most valuable AI startups. While both companies currently burn cash at similar rates relative to revenue, their paths forward split dramatically. Anthropic forecasts dropping its cash burn to roughly one-third of revenue in 2026 and down to 9% by 2027. OpenAI, by contrast, expects its burn rate to remain at 57% in 2026 and 2027.
OpenAI’s plan relies on what amounts to a bet on dominance. The company recently announced it has signed up to $1.4 trillion in commitments over the next eight years for computing deals with cloud and chip giants. It’s spending almost $100 billion on backup data-center capacity alone to cover unforeseen demand from future products and research.
“Demand for AI exceeds available compute supply today,” an OpenAI spokesman told WSJ. “Every dollar we invest in AI infrastructure goes to serving the hundreds of millions of consumers, businesses, and developers who rely on ChatGPT to get more done.”
OpenAI did not immediately respond to Fortune‘s request for comment.
Altman’s strategy for OpenAI requires near-constant fundraising to keep the startup alive, but could backfire if markets cool on AI or its near-term profitability. Investors have already punished tech companies in recent weeks over concerns about AI spending and whether there will be enough revenue to pay for the extensive AI infrastructure buildout.
OpenAI’s financial figures came before it signed its most recent computing deals, meaning the company is likely set to spend even more than the documents suggest. The cash burn is expected to reach $115 billion cumulatively through 2029, according to The Information.
The company’s optimism about an eventual turnaround rests on revenue projections that show explosive growth. OpenAI now expects to reach about $200 billion in annual revenue by 2030, with the company projecting it will turn cash flow positive beginning in 2029 or 2030. Those figures represent substantial increases over earlier projections shared with investors.
OpenAI Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar said last week the company has healthy margins and could break even if it wanted to. She highlighted the fast growth of OpenAI’s enterprise business, and said the startup was still experimenting with new business models.
Altman has defended the massive infrastructure spending as a strategic necessity.
“We believe the risk to OpenAI of not having enough computing power is more significant and more likely than the risk of having too much,” he posted last week on X.
The contrasting approaches between OpenAI and Anthropic illustrate two distinct philosophies for navigating the AI boom. Anthropic’s costs are growing at a pace more in line with revenue, and the company is focused on increasing sales among corporate customers, which account for about 80% of its revenue. Notably, Anthropic is trying to avoid OpenAI’s costly forays into image and video generation, which require significantly more computing power. Sora 2, OpenAI’s new video-creation app, might be costing the company millions each day.
OpenAI, meanwhile, is diversifying rapidly. The company recently launched Sora 2 and its first web browser, Atlas. It’s also working on a consumer hardware device with Jony Ive’s design company, researching humanoid robots, and looking to add e-commerce and advertising features for ChatGPT. Whether OpenAI’s gamble pays off will depend on whether demand for its products continues to surge at the pace needed to justify the unprecedented spending. The company expects to burn through roughly 14 times as much cash as Anthropic before turning a profit.
For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.