
邁克爾·伯里再次強調了他對AI泡沫的擔憂,他將當下的一家核心科技公司與上世紀90年代末互聯網泡沫破裂時期的思科(Cisco)進行了類比。
在上周日(11月23日)于Substack發表的首篇題為《泡沫的核心特征:供給側的貪婪》的文章中,伯里將當前的AI熱潮稱為一場“輝煌的荒唐之舉”,并點名英偉達,認為該公司是其預判行業泡沫破裂的先兆。伯里因精準預測2008年房地產市場崩盤而聞名,其事跡被改編成2015年電影《大空頭》。
“荒唐之舉也能賺錢。創造性破壞與狂熱的荒唐之舉,恰恰是美國成為全球創新中心的原因,”伯里寫道。“企業被允許不斷創新直至自我毀滅,而更多的新公司會不斷涌現、重蹈覆轍。有時,所謂的新公司,不過是原有公司轉型而來。”
伯里指出,在互聯網泡沫時期,科技行業由“高盈利的大盤股”主導,其中最具代表性的當屬所謂的“四騎士”——微軟、英特爾、戴爾和思科。同樣,他認為當前的AI熱潮中也有五家公開上市的“騎士”:微軟、谷歌、Meta、亞馬遜和甲骨文。
值得注意的是,伯里特別指出思科是互聯網泡沫破裂時期處于風口浪尖的公司。這家科技公司的股價在1995年至2000年間飆升了3,800%,市值一度達到約5600億美元,成為全球最具價值的公司。但在世紀之交,其股價崩盤,暴跌逾80%。
伯里認為,歷史正在當前的AI熱潮中重演。他寫道:“如今,這場熱潮的中心同樣有一家'思科',它為所有人提供'鏟子和鎬'(基礎工具),并懷有宏大的愿景。這家公司就是英偉達。”
伯里近期在X平臺上發布一系列帖子,對AI公司(尤其是英偉達)不斷膨脹的估值表示懷疑。他批評了英偉達芯片的實際使用壽命以及該芯片制造商維持產品需求的能力。根據監管文件,本月早些時候,伯里的對沖基金賽昂資產管理公司(Scion Asset Management)購入了超過10億美元針對英偉達和Palantir的看跌期權——這是一種允許投資者在未來以特定價格賣出資產從而獲利的合約。此后數周,伯里悄然注銷了賽昂基金,實質上退出了代客理財業務。
審視英偉達
與25年前思科創紀錄的市值類似,英偉達如今已成為全球市值最高的公司,市值約5萬億美元。該公司不斷膨脹的估值也引起了摩根士丹利財富管理首席投資官麗莎·莎萊特(Lisa Shalett)的擔憂,她在9月告訴《財富》雜志,她擔心未來24個月內該行業可能迎來“思科時刻”。
她表示,圍繞英偉達的科技公司“開始相互交織”,企業間形成了一個循環融資圈。例如,英偉達在9月承諾向OpenAI投資1億美元,并于上周宣布將向Anthropic投資100億美元。作為回報,Anthropic將投資300億美元,在由英偉達提供算力的微軟Azure云平臺上擴展其Claude AI模型。這些持續的投資實際上已造就一個龐大的AI企業聯合體,同樣的數十億美元資金在這些企業間來回流轉。
英偉達方面則對外界的質疑進行了反擊。該公司上周公布了又一個亮眼的季度業績,營收激增62%。首席財務官科萊特·克雷斯(Colette Kress)在財報會議上反駁了伯里關于英偉達芯片使用壽命的說法,她表示,得益于CUDA軟件系統,英偉達的硬件壽命長且能效高。
首席執行官黃仁勛(Jensen Huang)在接受福克斯商業頻道《克拉曼倒計時》節目采訪時,駁斥了關于泡沫和循環融資的擔憂。他表示,公司尚未實際撥付任何資金,并且計劃投資的金額僅占其收入的“極小部分”。
“我們實現了六七十年來的首次計算技術徹底革新,”黃仁勛表示。“因此,遍布全球的所有已安裝計算機都在向加速計算、視頻GPU和人工智能方向升級。所以,這一建設周期將持續很多年。”(財富中文網)
英偉達未立即回應《財富》雜志的置評請求。
譯者:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
邁克爾·伯里再次強調了他對AI泡沫的擔憂,他將當下的一家核心科技公司與上世紀90年代末互聯網泡沫破裂時期的思科(Cisco)進行了類比。
在上周日(11月23日)于Substack發表的首篇題為《泡沫的核心特征:供給側的貪婪》的文章中,伯里將當前的AI熱潮稱為一場“輝煌的荒唐之舉”,并點名英偉達,認為該公司是其預判行業泡沫破裂的先兆。伯里因精準預測2008年房地產市場崩盤而聞名,其事跡被改編成2015年電影《大空頭》。
“荒唐之舉也能賺錢。創造性破壞與狂熱的荒唐之舉,恰恰是美國成為全球創新中心的原因,”伯里寫道。“企業被允許不斷創新直至自我毀滅,而更多的新公司會不斷涌現、重蹈覆轍。有時,所謂的新公司,不過是原有公司轉型而來。”
伯里指出,在互聯網泡沫時期,科技行業由“高盈利的大盤股”主導,其中最具代表性的當屬所謂的“四騎士”——微軟、英特爾、戴爾和思科。同樣,他認為當前的AI熱潮中也有五家公開上市的“騎士”:微軟、谷歌、Meta、亞馬遜和甲骨文。
值得注意的是,伯里特別指出思科是互聯網泡沫破裂時期處于風口浪尖的公司。這家科技公司的股價在1995年至2000年間飆升了3,800%,市值一度達到約5600億美元,成為全球最具價值的公司。但在世紀之交,其股價崩盤,暴跌逾80%。
伯里認為,歷史正在當前的AI熱潮中重演。他寫道:“如今,這場熱潮的中心同樣有一家'思科',它為所有人提供'鏟子和鎬'(基礎工具),并懷有宏大的愿景。這家公司就是英偉達。”
伯里近期在X平臺上發布一系列帖子,對AI公司(尤其是英偉達)不斷膨脹的估值表示懷疑。他批評了英偉達芯片的實際使用壽命以及該芯片制造商維持產品需求的能力。根據監管文件,本月早些時候,伯里的對沖基金賽昂資產管理公司(Scion Asset Management)購入了超過10億美元針對英偉達和Palantir的看跌期權——這是一種允許投資者在未來以特定價格賣出資產從而獲利的合約。此后數周,伯里悄然注銷了賽昂基金,實質上退出了代客理財業務。
審視英偉達
與25年前思科創紀錄的市值類似,英偉達如今已成為全球市值最高的公司,市值約5萬億美元。該公司不斷膨脹的估值也引起了摩根士丹利財富管理首席投資官麗莎·莎萊特(Lisa Shalett)的擔憂,她在9月告訴《財富》雜志,她擔心未來24個月內該行業可能迎來“思科時刻”。
她表示,圍繞英偉達的科技公司“開始相互交織”,企業間形成了一個循環融資圈。例如,英偉達在9月承諾向OpenAI投資1億美元,并于上周宣布將向Anthropic投資100億美元。作為回報,Anthropic將投資300億美元,在由英偉達提供算力的微軟Azure云平臺上擴展其Claude AI模型。這些持續的投資實際上已造就一個龐大的AI企業聯合體,同樣的數十億美元資金在這些企業間來回流轉。
英偉達方面則對外界的質疑進行了反擊。該公司上周公布了又一個亮眼的季度業績,營收激增62%。首席財務官科萊特·克雷斯(Colette Kress)在財報會議上反駁了伯里關于英偉達芯片使用壽命的說法,她表示,得益于CUDA軟件系統,英偉達的硬件壽命長且能效高。
首席執行官黃仁勛(Jensen Huang)在接受福克斯商業頻道《克拉曼倒計時》節目采訪時,駁斥了關于泡沫和循環融資的擔憂。他表示,公司尚未實際撥付任何資金,并且計劃投資的金額僅占其收入的“極小部分”。
“我們實現了六七十年來的首次計算技術徹底革新,”黃仁勛表示。“因此,遍布全球的所有已安裝計算機都在向加速計算、視頻GPU和人工智能方向升級。所以,這一建設周期將持續很多年。”(財富中文網)
英偉達未立即回應《財富》雜志的置評請求。
譯者:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
Michael Burry has doubled down on his concerns of an AI bubble, drawing similarities between Cisco during the late-'90s dotcom crash and one key tech company today.
In his first Substack post, “The Cardinal Sign of a Bubble: Supply-Side Gluttony,” published on Sunday, Burry, made famous for his prescience on the 2008 housing market collapse as portrayed in the 2015 film The Big Short, called the AI boom a “glorious folly,” singling out Nvidia as a harbinger for when he expects the industry's bubble to burst.
“Folly makes money. Creative destruction and manic folly are exactly why the U.S. is the center of innovation in the world,” Burry said. “Companies are allowed to innovate themselves to death. And ever more spring up to do the same. Sometimes the new company is the same company on a pivot.”
During the dotcom boom, Burry said, the tech industry was defined by “highly profitable large-caps, among which were the so-called Four Horsemen of the era---Microsoft, Intel, Dell, and Cisco.” Similarly, there are five publicly traded horsemen of the current AI boom, according to Burry: Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, and Oracle.
Notably, Burry singled out Cisco as the company at the forefront of the dotcom bubble burst. The tech company's stock surged 3,800% between 1995 and 2000, becoming the most valuable company in the world with a market capitalization of about $560 billion. The tech firm's stock collapsed at the turn of the millennium, plummeting more than 80%.
Today, Burry argued, history is repeating itself with the AI boom: “And once again there is a Cisco at the center of it all, with the picks and shovels for all and the expansive vision to go with it,” Burry said. “Its name is Nvidia.”
Burry has published a flurry of X posts casting doubt on the ballooning valuations of AI companies, in particular Nvidia, which he has criticized over the actual longevity of its chips, as well as the chipmakers' ability to sustain demand for its products. Earlier this month, Burry's hedge fund, Scion Asset Management, bought more than $1 billion in put options---a contract that allows you to profit from an asset sold at a later date---on Nvidia and Palantir, according to regulatory filings. That's before the investor quietly deregistered Scion just weeks later, effectively resigning from managing others' money.
Scrutiny of Nvidia
Similar to Cisco's record-breaking market cap 25 years ago, Nvidia has established itself as the world's most valuable company today, worth roughly $5 trillion. The company's swelling value has also concerned Lisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's chief investment officer, who told Fortune in September she's worried about the industry's “Cisco moment” in the next 24 months.
She said the tech companies surrounding Nvidia are “starting to become interwoven,” with firms creating a circular financing loop. For example, Nvidia pledged to invest $100 million in OpenAI in September, and announced last week it will invest $10 billion into Anthropic. In return, Anthropic will invest $30 billion to scale its Claude AI model on Microsoft's Nvidia-powered Azure cloud platform. The continuous investments have, in effect, created one giant blob of AI companies passing the same billions of dollars back and forth.
Nvidia, for its part, has pushed back against its skeptics. It reported another quarter of blockbuster earnings last week, including a 62% surge in revenue. Chief financial officer Colette Kress rebutted Burry's claim about the life of Nvidia's chips, saying in the earnings presentation that the company's hardware is long-lasting and efficient because of its CUDA software system.
CEO Jensen Huang dismissed concerns of a bubble and circular funding in an interview on Fox Business's The Claman Countdown, saying the company has not doled out any money yet, and that the investments it plans to make are a “tiny percentage” of its revenues.
“We reinvented computing for the first time in 60, 70 years,” Huang said. “And so all of the computers that have been installed around the world [are] being modernized to accelerated computing and video GPUs and to artificial intelligence. And so this build-out is going to last us many years to come.”
Nvidia did not immediately respond to Fortune's request for comment.