比特幣再度暴跌，年底前重返10萬美元的希望渺茫
Carlos Garcia
2025-12-04
圖片來源：Gabby Jones—Bloomberg/Getty Images
感恩節假期前夕，加密貨幣交易者尚可慶幸比特幣價格正大幅反彈，收復失地。然而假期結束后，比特幣在周一再度暴跌。如今，在最大的預測市場之一Kalshi上，押注者已將比特幣在年底前突破10萬美元的概率大幅下調——目前約為24%，而假期開始時這一概率為60%。
Kalshi、Polymarket和Robinhood等預測市場論壇，被視為預測各類未來事件的精準風向標，盡管它們發布的概率始終處于波動之中。
在加密貨幣方面，Kalshi上的其他押注也反映出對該領域的看跌預期。例如，63%的押注者預測比特幣今年將跌破8萬美元。甚至對于這一主要加密貨幣的長期預測也顯得悲觀，82%的押注者預計比特幣在2027年前不會突破20萬美元。
Kalshi及其競爭對手Polymarket是預測市場的主要參與者。預測市場在去年美國總統大選前夕開始流行，當時Kalshi預測特朗普獲勝，與許多備受推崇的民調結果相反。自那以后，Polymarket正尋求高達150億美元的估值，而Kalshi的估值則高達110億美元。
截至周一下午，比特幣價格在過去24小時內下跌約8%，至當前約84,000美元。自大約兩個月前創下約126,000美元的高點以來，這一最初的加密貨幣已下跌約33%。
另外兩種主要加密貨幣以太坊和Solana也在12月的第一天遭遇重挫。自昨日以來，前者下跌約10%至當前2,752美元，后者下跌約9%至當前125美元。
周一，美國加密貨幣交易者一覺醒來便迎來地球另一端的壞消息：日本兩年期國債收益率創下17年新高——這是一系列促使投資者采取避險立場的宏觀經濟信號中的最新一個。
“日本的事態發展帶來了新的壓力來源，”CoinShares研究主管詹姆斯·巴特菲爾（James Butterfill）表示。“日本加息的可能性正在增加，鑒于該國龐大的政府債務負擔，即使小幅行動也可能破壞全球市場的穩定。”（財富中文網）
譯者：中慧言-王芳
感恩節假期前夕，加密貨幣交易者尚可慶幸比特幣價格正大幅反彈，收復失地。然而假期結束后，比特幣在周一再度暴跌。如今，在最大的預測市場之一Kalshi上，押注者已將比特幣在年底前突破10萬美元的概率大幅下調——目前約為24%，而假期開始時這一概率為60%。
Kalshi、Polymarket和Robinhood等預測市場論壇，被視為預測各類未來事件的精準風向標，盡管它們發布的概率始終處于波動之中。
在加密貨幣方面，Kalshi上的其他押注也反映出對該領域的看跌預期。例如，63%的押注者預測比特幣今年將跌破8萬美元。甚至對于這一主要加密貨幣的長期預測也顯得悲觀，82%的押注者預計比特幣在2027年前不會突破20萬美元。
Kalshi及其競爭對手Polymarket是預測市場的主要參與者。預測市場在去年美國總統大選前夕開始流行，當時Kalshi預測特朗普獲勝，與許多備受推崇的民調結果相反。自那以后，Polymarket正尋求高達150億美元的估值，而Kalshi的估值則高達110億美元。
截至周一下午，比特幣價格在過去24小時內下跌約8%，至當前約84,000美元。自大約兩個月前創下約126,000美元的高點以來，這一最初的加密貨幣已下跌約33%。
另外兩種主要加密貨幣以太坊和Solana也在12月的第一天遭遇重挫。自昨日以來，前者下跌約10%至當前2,752美元，后者下跌約9%至當前125美元。
周一，美國加密貨幣交易者一覺醒來便迎來地球另一端的壞消息：日本兩年期國債收益率創下17年新高——這是一系列促使投資者采取避險立場的宏觀經濟信號中的最新一個。
“日本的事態發展帶來了新的壓力來源，”CoinShares研究主管詹姆斯·巴特菲爾（James Butterfill）表示。“日本加息的可能性正在增加，鑒于該國龐大的政府債務負擔，即使小幅行動也可能破壞全球市場的穩定。”（財富中文網）
譯者：中慧言-王芳
Heading into the Thanksgiving holiday, crypto traders could give thanks that Bitcoin's price was clawing back major losses. But then Bitcoin plummeted again on Monday following the break. Now bettors on Kalshi, one of the biggest prediction markets, have knocked down its chance of crossing $100,000 by the end of the year---giving it around a 24% chance of hitting that mark compared to 60% at the outset of the holiday.
Kalshi and other prediction market forums like Polymarket and Robinhood are viewed as highly accurate indications for a wide variety of future events, though the odds they post are constantly in flux.
When it comes to crypto, other bets on Kalshi reflect a bearish outlook for the sector. This includes 63% of bettors wagering that Bitcoin will dip below $80,000 this year. Even longer-term predictions about the major cryptocurrency are muted, as 82% of bettors predict Bitcoin will not be above $200K by 2027.
Kalshi is one of the major players in prediction markets, along with its rival, Polymarket. Prediction markets gained popularity after the run-up to last year's U.S. presidential election, when Kalshi pointed to a Trump win in contrast to many highly regarded polls. Since then, Polymarket is seeking a valuation of up to $15 billion, while Kalshi's is up to $11 billion.
The price of Bitcoin is down about 8% in the past 24 hours to its current price of roughly $84,000, as of Monday afternoon. Since its high of about $126,000 about two months ago, the original cryptocurrency is down roughly 33%.
Ethereum and Solana, the other two major cryptocurrencies, have also had a rough first day of December. Since yesterday, the former is down about 10% to its current price of $2,752, and the latter is down about 9% to its current price of $125.
On Monday, crypto traders in the U.S. woke up to bad news from the other side of the world, as Japan's two-year bond yield reached a 17-year high---the latest in a series of macroeconomic signals that have led investors to adopt a risk-off position.
"Developments in Japan added a fresh source of pressure," said James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares. "The prospect of a Japanese rate hike is gathering momentum, and with the country's substantial government debt load, even modest moves can destabilize global markets."
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