全球股市拋售潮預示：AI泡沫或以最健康方式走向終結
Jim Edwards
2025-12-19
圖片來源：Ascent/PKS media via Getty Images
通常情況下，科技巨頭股價大幅下跌對股票交易員來說是件糟糕的事。眾所周知，標普500指數由科技股主導，尤其是“科技七巨頭”，它們的估值對整個市場有著舉足輕重的影響。
因此，甲骨文（Oracle）較9月高點已下跌40%以上；CoreWeave本周大跌，較7月歷史高點已回調60%。這些消息本應引發市場劇烈震蕩。兩家公司都是AI“超大規模運營商”，專注于建設AI數據中心。至少在交易員看來，兩者都為資助這些設施背負了過高債務。
例如，據《華爾街日報》報道，CoreWeave上周發行了22.5億美元的可轉換債券，這將稀釋現有股東的權益。此前第三季度，CoreWeave報告了37億美元的流動負債、103億美元的非流動負債，以及391億美元的數據中心未來租賃協議。該公司預計今年營收僅為50億美元，但卻聲稱未來擁有560億美元的“收入儲備訂單”。
甲骨文與CoreWeave的市值崩盤，其跌幅規?？氨?000年或2008年的市場下跌。這難道不是AI泡沫破裂的證據嗎？
某種程度上算是吧。然而，標普500指數本周僅小幅回落，該指數年內仍上漲16%。今早亞洲和歐洲市場普遍下跌——表明某種拋售正在進行中。但這看起來并不像甲骨文和CoreWeave所經歷的那么慘烈。
現實情況是，投資者正在拋售那些似乎過度擴張的公司的個股。但他們對股市整體，尤其是某些科技股，仍普遍持樂觀態度。例如，特斯拉（Tesla）本周走勢強勁。
交易員僅逃離個別科技股，而且他們正在買入非科技板塊的公司。標普500等權重指數在12月11日創下歷史新高后，昨日微幅上漲。年初至今，等權重標普指數上漲10.2%，而常規的市值加權標普指數則上漲了16%。
“顧名思義，標普500等權重指數的每個成分股權重相等——這消除了超大市值成分股造成的扭曲，并顯著改變了行業權重，包括科技板塊的權重從市值加權標普500指數的33%降至等權重指數的僅13%，”總部位于夏洛特的LPL Financial首席技術策略師亞當?特恩奎斯特（Adam Turnquist）表示。
“近期對AI增長勢頭的擔憂拖累了科技和通信服務板塊，上周這兩個板塊分別下跌了2.3%和3.2%，”特恩奎斯特在《財富》看到的一份報告中寫道?！百Y金輪動回更具經濟周期性的板塊已成為一個正在發展的主題，材料、金融和工業板塊表現明顯優于大盤?！?/p>
正如《金融時報》今早所言：“如果我們身處泡沫之中，它是否會以緩慢的‘嘶嘶’聲，而非一聲巨響結束？”（財富中文網）
譯者：馮豐
審校：夏林
通常情況下，科技巨頭股價大幅下跌對股票交易員來說是件糟糕的事。眾所周知，標普500指數由科技股主導，尤其是“科技七巨頭”，它們的估值對整個市場有著舉足輕重的影響。
因此，甲骨文（Oracle）較9月高點已下跌40%以上；CoreWeave本周大跌，較7月歷史高點已回調60%。這些消息本應引發市場劇烈震蕩。兩家公司都是AI“超大規模運營商”，專注于建設AI數據中心。至少在交易員看來，兩者都為資助這些設施背負了過高債務。
例如，據《華爾街日報》報道，CoreWeave上周發行了22.5億美元的可轉換債券，這將稀釋現有股東的權益。此前第三季度，CoreWeave報告了37億美元的流動負債、103億美元的非流動負債，以及391億美元的數據中心未來租賃協議。該公司預計今年營收僅為50億美元，但卻聲稱未來擁有560億美元的“收入儲備訂單”。
甲骨文與CoreWeave的市值崩盤，其跌幅規?？氨?000年或2008年的市場下跌。這難道不是AI泡沫破裂的證據嗎？
某種程度上算是吧。然而，標普500指數本周僅小幅回落，該指數年內仍上漲16%。今早亞洲和歐洲市場普遍下跌——表明某種拋售正在進行中。但這看起來并不像甲骨文和CoreWeave所經歷的那么慘烈。
現實情況是，投資者正在拋售那些似乎過度擴張的公司的個股。但他們對股市整體，尤其是某些科技股，仍普遍持樂觀態度。例如，特斯拉（Tesla）本周走勢強勁。
交易員僅逃離個別科技股，而且他們正在買入非科技板塊的公司。標普500等權重指數在12月11日創下歷史新高后，昨日微幅上漲。年初至今，等權重標普指數上漲10.2%，而常規的市值加權標普指數則上漲了16%。
“顧名思義，標普500等權重指數的每個成分股權重相等——這消除了超大市值成分股造成的扭曲，并顯著改變了行業權重，包括科技板塊的權重從市值加權標普500指數的33%降至等權重指數的僅13%，”總部位于夏洛特的LPL Financial首席技術策略師亞當?特恩奎斯特（Adam Turnquist）表示。
“近期對AI增長勢頭的擔憂拖累了科技和通信服務板塊，上周這兩個板塊分別下跌了2.3%和3.2%，”特恩奎斯特在《財富》看到的一份報告中寫道。“資金輪動回更具經濟周期性的板塊已成為一個正在發展的主題，材料、金融和工業板塊表現明顯優于大盤。”
正如《金融時報》今早所言：“如果我們身處泡沫之中，它是否會以緩慢的‘嘶嘶’聲，而非一聲巨響結束？”（財富中文網）
譯者：馮豐
審校：夏林
Normally it’s terrible for stock traders when giant tech companies’ shares fall dramatically. Everyone knows that the S&P 500 is dominated by tech stocks—the Magnificent Seven in particular—and their valuations have disproportionate influence over the market as a whole.
So the news that Oracle declined 2.66% yesterday and is now down 44% from its high in September, and that CoreWeave was down 8% yesterday and is down a staggering 60% since its all-time high in July, should have rocked markets to their core. Both companies are AI “hyperscalers” engaged in the business of building out AI data centers, and both—according to traders, at least—have taken on too much debt to fund those facilities.
CoreWeave, for instance, offered a $2.25 billion convertible bond last week that will dilute existing shareholders, according to the Wall Street Journal. Previously, in Q3, CoreWeave reported $3.7 billion in current debt, $10.3 billion in noncurrent debt, and $39.1 billion in future lease agreements for data centers. The company expects to make only $5 billion in revenue this year but says it has $56 billion in “revenue backlog” coming in the future.
The collapse in market caps of Oracle and CoreWeave is on the scale of the declines we saw in 2000 or 2008. Surely that’s evidence of the AI bubble bursting?
Well, kinda. The S&P 500 stepped back only 0.16% yesterday. Futures are down 0.4% this morning. The index is still up 16% for the year. Markets in Asia and Europe were broadly down this morning—signaling that some kind of selloff is underway. But it doesn’t look as catastrophic as what’s happening to Oracle and CoreWeave.
The reality is that investors are selling off individual stocks of companies that seem to be overextended. But they are broadly bullish on stocks as a whole and certain tech stocks in particular. Tesla was up 3.56% yesterday, for instance, and Nvidia rose 0.73%.
As traders flee individual tech stocks, they are buying up non-tech-sector companies. The “equal-weight” S&P 500 was up marginally yesterday after hitting a record high on Dec. 11. The equal-weight S&P is up 10.2% year to date, compared to the regular, market-cap-weighted S&P at 16%.
“As the name implies, each index component [of the equal-weight S&P] carries an equal weighting—eliminating the distortion of the mega-cap components and significantly changing sector weightings, including technology, which drops from 33% on the [market-cap-weighted] S&P 500 to only 13% on the [equal-weight S&P],” according to Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for LPL Financial in Charlotte.
“Concerns over AI momentum have recently weighed on technology and communication services, which posted respective losses of 2.3% and 3.2% last week,” Turnquist wrote in a note seen by Fortune. “Rotational pressure back into more economically cyclical sectors has been a developing theme, with materials, financials, and industrials notably outperforming.”
As the Financial Times put it this morning, “If we’re in a bubble, might it end with a slow hiss, not a loud pop?”
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