
最近讀新聞,你很容易產生一種錯覺:科技界、新聞界和投資圈似乎正在無意中催生一個人工智能“泡沫”。泡沫是否存在仍有爭議,但相關討論已自成氣候,愈演愈烈。每一篇預測納斯達克崩盤的文章都加劇投資者的緊張情緒,進而催生出更多同類文章,世界就這樣陷入無盡的循環。
通常,抵御市場波動最有效的方法,是讓當下的技術深度融入社會肌理,使其價值不易迅速流失。一旦普通人的真實體驗與交易大廳或董事會里的亢奮情緒脫節,危機便可能悄然逼近。
在這方面,我們可以向全球人口排名第89位的國家——我的祖國瑞典取經。上世紀90年代,瑞典政府推出了一項名為“家庭電腦改革”(Hem-PC-reformen)的法案,旨在讓每家每戶都擁有一臺電腦。這一舉措常被視為隨后數十年科技騰飛、“以小搏大”的起點。它并非某家企業的戰略宣言或CEO打造的光鮮工具,而是一項惠及全民的國家政策,旨在將新技術牢固地嵌入日常生活。
時至今日,斯德哥爾摩已成為硅谷以外全球人均獨角獸企業數量最多的城市。瑞典的人工智能初創企業正蓬勃發展:為律師提供自動化服務的Legora正以18億美元估值融資;電動卡車獨角獸Einride近日宣布獲資1億美元,用于擴展自動駕駛貨運業務;幫助用戶用AI開發應用的“氛圍編程”平臺Lovable是全球增長最快的企業之一;而上個月,企業技術公司Workday以11億美元收購了我們的公司Sana。
對于一個人口不及紐約州一半、偏居北極圈旁的國家來說,這樣的成就已相當亮眼。人們不斷追問:瑞典何以取得如此成績?雖無秘方,但確有幾樣關鍵要素。
前述“家庭電腦改革”的推行,部分得益于冬季長達18小時的極夜。漫漫長夜里,瑞典人樂于守在電腦前,在早期互聯網環境中探索嘗試。
這批具備數字素養的世代隨后創建了多家全球領先的科技公司:2003年,Skype成立,旨在普及視頻通話技術;同年,開發了《糖果傳奇》的游戲公司King誕生;2005年,Klarna問世;2006年,Spotify上線;2009年,Mojang筑起了《我的世界》的第一塊方塊。
瑞典人深以為傲。這些成功故事證明了我們在全球舞臺上的潛力,也為生態系統注入了巨大流動性。Skype和Mojang被微軟收購,King被動視(Activision)收購,交易額均達數十億美元;Spotify于2018年上市,Klarna也在去年早些時候上市。每一個成功故事都造就了一批新的百萬富翁,其中許多人深感有責任將資金再投入瑞典的科技與創業領域。
這種飛輪效應塑造了今日瑞典的人工智能產業。我們的成長型企業站在巨人肩上,身處有利于創業的環境中。有潛力的創業者能獲得資金支持,投資常來自EQT、Northzone、Creandum等優質機構。在瑞典創業相對容易,股票期權制度也激勵著人們創建公司。斯德哥爾摩坐擁瑞典皇家理工學院(KTH)和斯德哥爾摩經濟學院(Handelsh?gskolan),許多創始人同時擁有這兩所學校的學位(當然也有不少成功創業者完全未讀大學)。此外,瑞典的英語普及率極高。
政府也持續發揮著關鍵作用。瑞典的研發支出占GDP比重(3.57%)高于任何其他歐洲國家。任何員工均可休六個月的“創業假”(tj?nstledighet)去創辦企業。為效仿90年代成功的“家庭電腦改革”,首相去年支持推出“瑞典人工智能改革”計劃,向所有公務員、學生、教師、研究機構和非營利組織免費提供智能體人工智能技術。
文化層面也有助力。瑞典是沃爾沃(Volvo)和宜家(IKEA)的故鄉,其設計理念以功能與形式融合著稱。我認識的許多軟件工程師都對美學充滿熱情,他們對待應用登陸頁面的精細程度,不亞于審視一把布魯諾·馬松(Bruno Mathsson)設計的椅子。
最后,瑞典也是一個崇尚謙遜的國度(雖然我正寫著夸贊本國的文章)。在這里,鋒芒畢露通常不受歡迎。盡管這在社會層面或有弊端,但它助力在科技界營造了高度互信、摒棄自負的氛圍。不同組織和創業者之間信息共享 freely,因為大家都明白,任何一家瑞典人工智能企業的成功,都將惠及整個生態。
當然,我們仍面臨挑戰,有些看似瑣碎(比如北歐航空,請開通直飛舊金山的航線),有些則關乎根本(例如后期融資仍依賴美國投資者)。
但不可否認,瑞典“廣泛普及、深度接納”的科技發展之路,對世界其他地區具有借鑒意義。如果我們擔心人工智能公司估值攀升過快,擔心其他經濟指標能否及時跟上、避免泡沫,那么我們需要做的,正是將這項技術編織進日常生活。(財富中文網)
Oscar T?ckstr?m是Sana公司首席科學家。Fortune.com上發表的評論文章中表達的觀點,僅代表作者本人的觀點,不代表《財富》雜志的觀點和立場。
譯者:梁宇
審校:夏林
最近讀新聞,你很容易產生一種錯覺:科技界、新聞界和投資圈似乎正在無意中催生一個人工智能“泡沫”。泡沫是否存在仍有爭議,但相關討論已自成氣候,愈演愈烈。每一篇預測納斯達克崩盤的文章都加劇投資者的緊張情緒,進而催生出更多同類文章,世界就這樣陷入無盡的循環。
通常,抵御市場波動最有效的方法,是讓當下的技術深度融入社會肌理,使其價值不易迅速流失。一旦普通人的真實體驗與交易大廳或董事會里的亢奮情緒脫節,危機便可能悄然逼近。
在這方面,我們可以向全球人口排名第89位的國家——我的祖國瑞典取經。上世紀90年代,瑞典政府推出了一項名為“家庭電腦改革”(Hem-PC-reformen)的法案,旨在讓每家每戶都擁有一臺電腦。這一舉措常被視為隨后數十年科技騰飛、“以小搏大”的起點。它并非某家企業的戰略宣言或CEO打造的光鮮工具,而是一項惠及全民的國家政策,旨在將新技術牢固地嵌入日常生活。
時至今日,斯德哥爾摩已成為硅谷以外全球人均獨角獸企業數量最多的城市。瑞典的人工智能初創企業正蓬勃發展:為律師提供自動化服務的Legora正以18億美元估值融資;電動卡車獨角獸Einride近日宣布獲資1億美元,用于擴展自動駕駛貨運業務;幫助用戶用AI開發應用的“氛圍編程”平臺Lovable是全球增長最快的企業之一;而上個月,企業技術公司Workday以11億美元收購了我們的公司Sana。
對于一個人口不及紐約州一半、偏居北極圈旁的國家來說,這樣的成就已相當亮眼。人們不斷追問:瑞典何以取得如此成績?雖無秘方,但確有幾樣關鍵要素。
前述“家庭電腦改革”的推行,部分得益于冬季長達18小時的極夜。漫漫長夜里,瑞典人樂于守在電腦前,在早期互聯網環境中探索嘗試。
這批具備數字素養的世代隨后創建了多家全球領先的科技公司:2003年,Skype成立,旨在普及視頻通話技術;同年,開發了《糖果傳奇》的游戲公司King誕生;2005年,Klarna問世;2006年,Spotify上線;2009年,Mojang筑起了《我的世界》的第一塊方塊。
瑞典人深以為傲。這些成功故事證明了我們在全球舞臺上的潛力,也為生態系統注入了巨大流動性。Skype和Mojang被微軟收購,King被動視(Activision)收購,交易額均達數十億美元;Spotify于2018年上市,Klarna也在去年早些時候上市。每一個成功故事都造就了一批新的百萬富翁,其中許多人深感有責任將資金再投入瑞典的科技與創業領域。
這種飛輪效應塑造了今日瑞典的人工智能產業。我們的成長型企業站在巨人肩上,身處有利于創業的環境中。有潛力的創業者能獲得資金支持,投資常來自EQT、Northzone、Creandum等優質機構。在瑞典創業相對容易,股票期權制度也激勵著人們創建公司。斯德哥爾摩坐擁瑞典皇家理工學院(KTH)和斯德哥爾摩經濟學院(Handelsh?gskolan),許多創始人同時擁有這兩所學校的學位(當然也有不少成功創業者完全未讀大學)。此外,瑞典的英語普及率極高。
政府也持續發揮著關鍵作用。瑞典的研發支出占GDP比重(3.57%)高于任何其他歐洲國家。任何員工均可休六個月的“創業假”(tj?nstledighet)去創辦企業。為效仿90年代成功的“家庭電腦改革”,首相去年支持推出“瑞典人工智能改革”計劃,向所有公務員、學生、教師、研究機構和非營利組織免費提供智能體人工智能技術。
文化層面也有助力。瑞典是沃爾沃(Volvo)和宜家(IKEA)的故鄉,其設計理念以功能與形式融合著稱。我認識的許多軟件工程師都對美學充滿熱情,他們對待應用登陸頁面的精細程度,不亞于審視一把布魯諾·馬松(Bruno Mathsson)設計的椅子。
最后,瑞典也是一個崇尚謙遜的國度(雖然我正寫著夸贊本國的文章)。在這里,鋒芒畢露通常不受歡迎。盡管這在社會層面或有弊端,但它助力在科技界營造了高度互信、摒棄自負的氛圍。不同組織和創業者之間信息共享 freely,因為大家都明白,任何一家瑞典人工智能企業的成功,都將惠及整個生態。
當然,我們仍面臨挑戰,有些看似瑣碎(比如北歐航空,請開通直飛舊金山的航線),有些則關乎根本(例如后期融資仍依賴美國投資者)。
但不可否認,瑞典“廣泛普及、深度接納”的科技發展之路,對世界其他地區具有借鑒意義。如果我們擔心人工智能公司估值攀升過快,擔心其他經濟指標能否及時跟上、避免泡沫,那么我們需要做的,正是將這項技術編織進日常生活。(財富中文網)
Oscar T?ckstr?m是Sana公司首席科學家。Fortune.com上發表的評論文章中表達的觀點,僅代表作者本人的觀點,不代表《財富》雜志的觀點和立場。
譯者:梁宇
審校:夏林
Reading the media these days, you would be forgiven for thinking the technology, journalism, and investment communities were inadvertently wishing an AI ‘bubble’ into existence. Whether a bubble exists or not remains debatable, but the conversation itself has taken on a life of its own. Every article predicting the collapse of the NASDAQ increases investor nervousness, which leads to another article about the collapse of the NASDAQ, and so the world turns ad infinitum.
Often the most effective insulation against market volatility is for the technology of the day to be ubiquitously woven into the fabric of society, such that it cannot lose value quickly. When there is a disconnect between people’s real-world experiences and the excitement felt on trading floors or in boardrooms, trouble can loom.
We can learn something in this regard from the world’s 89th most populous country: my native Sweden. In the 1990s, the Swedish government introduced a piece of legislation called Hem-PC-reformen (the Home-PC reform), which aimed to put a computer in every house. This move is often credited as the starting gun for subsequent decades of technological progress and “punching above our weight.” This was not a corporate strategic manifesto or shiny new tech tool built by a CEO; it was a countrywide policy for all of us, designed to firmly cement a new technology into our lives.
Fast-forward to today, and Stockholm has the highest number of unicorns per capita of any city in the world outside of Silicon Valley. Sweden’s AI startups are soaring. Legora, which automates tasks for lawyers, is raising capital at a $1.8 billion valuation. Einride, the electric vehicle unicorn, recently announced $100 million to scale autonomous freight. The ‘vibe-coding’ platform Lovable, which helps people build apps with AI, is one of the fastest-growing businesses in the world. And last month, the enterprise technology company Workday acquired our own business, Sana, for $1.1 billion.
Not bad for a country with half the population of the state of New York, tucked away by the Arctic Circle. People keep asking how a nation like ours can achieve so much. Though there’s no secret sauce, there are a few essential ingredients.
The aforementioned Home-PC reform was catalysed by winter darkness that can last 18 hours, meaning we Swedes spent hours at our computers experimenting within an early internet environment.
That digitally literate generation then built world-beating technology companies. Skype was founded in 2003 to popularize video call technology. So was King, the maker of Candy Crush. In 2005, Klarna was born. 2006, Spotify. In 2009, Mojang laid the first blocks of Minecraft.
We Swedes are very proud of these success stories. They show us what is possible on the global stage. They have also provided huge liquidity moments for our ecosystem. Skype and Mojang were bought by Microsoft, Activision by King, all at multiple billion-dollar price tags. Spotify went public in 2018, and Klarna earlier this year. Each of these success stories created another group of millionaires, many of whom feel a duty to reinvest back into Sweden’s technology and startup sectors.
This flywheel effect has made our AI sector what it is today. Our scaleups stand on the shoulders of giants, within an environment conducive to business building. There is capital available for deserving entrepreneurs, often deployed by quality investment firms like EQT, Northzone, and Creandum. It is relatively easy to start a company here, and our stock options system incentivizes building businesses. Stockholm is home to both the engineering university KTH and the business school Handelsh?gskolan, with many founders securing degrees from both (alongside many successful entrepreneurs who ignore university entirely). We also have very high English language proficiency rates.
The government continues to play a crucial role, too. Sweden spends a higher proportion of GDP on Research & Development (3.57%) than any other European country. Any employee in Sweden can take six months off to start a business, a scheme known as tj?nstledighet. And to mirror that successful PC Home Reform policy from the 90s, the Prime Minister this year supported a Swedish AI Reform scheme that makes agentic AI free for all civil servants, students, teachers, research institutions, and non-profits.
There are also aspects of our culture that help us build great companies. We are the country of Volvo and IKEA, of a Swedish design ethos known for blending function and form. Many software engineers I know here are passionate about aesthetics, meaning an app’s landing page is often treated with the same eye for detail as a Bruno Mathsson chair.
Finally, we are also a humble nation (he says while writing a piece about how great a nation we are!). Putting one’s head above the rest is typically frowned upon. Though this can have its societal drawbacks, it has helped foster a high-trust, low-ego environment in our technology. Information is freely shared between different organizations and entrepreneurs, in the knowledge that each Swedish AI success benefits all.
We still have our challenges, of course, ranging from the seemingly trivial (Scandinavian Airlines, please launch a direct flight to San Francisco) to the fundamental (we still rely on American investors for later-stage capital).
But there is no denying that the Swedish approach to technology – broad and deep acceptance – is a useful tale for the rest of the world. If we are worried about the speed at which AI companies have increased in value, and when other economic metrics will catch up to prevent a bubble, we need to weave that technology into our daily lives.