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          這家比特幣資產管理公司股價再度逼近危險臨界值

          Jim Edwards
          2026-01-09

          對于一只旨在追蹤比特幣表現的股票而言,若其價值不及比特幣本身,那么持有此類股票便毫無意義。

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          Strategy公司執行董事長邁克爾·塞勒(Michael Saylor)。圖片來源:Ronda Churchill—Bloomberg/Getty Images

          邁克爾·賽勒旗下比特幣資產管理公司Strategy股價1月2日早盤上漲1.22%,為公司贏得短暫喘息之機。自去年7月股價觸及歷史峰值以來,該股已累計下跌66%。1月2日晨,其市值與比特幣持倉價值比率(mNAV)——衡量公司市值與比特幣持倉價值相對關系的技術指標——顯示為1.02。

          若該指標跌破1,則意味著公司市值低于其持有的比特幣資產價值。屆時,眾多投資者或將拋售該股,原因是,對于一只旨在追蹤比特幣表現的股票而言,若其價值不及比特幣本身,那么持有此類股票便毫無意義。市值與比特幣持倉價值比率的計算公式為:mNAV=(公司總市值+總負債-現金儲備)÷比特幣總持倉量。當該數值低于1時,那么持有Strategy股票的理由就愈發難以站得住腳。

          自去年11月以來,該股的這一指標始終維持在危險區間之上。

          事實上,公司當前市值已低于其持有的比特幣資產價值。如今,公司市值為470億美元,而其持有的比特幣資產價值卻接近600億美元。這一現狀本身已構成高危信號。一旦市值與比特幣持倉價值比率跌破1,公司股價或將面臨前所未有的困境。

          《財富》雜志已聯系該公司尋求置評。

          塞勒本人一如既往地在社交媒體上唱多該公司股票(股票代碼MSTR),并發布圖表指出,該股“未平倉合約”(投資者未結清頭寸)規模已相當于公司市值的87%。這暗示該股交易活躍度極高(不過,這些未平倉合約中,很可能包含大量針對公司的做空頭寸)。他還發布了一張人工智能生成的圖片,畫面中,他正在馴服一頭北極熊。

          除了市值與比特幣持倉價值比率跌破1這一危險臨界值外,Strategy還面臨另一風險閾值——比特幣歷史平均買入價。該公司多年來累積的比特幣平均持倉成本約為7.4萬美元/枚。目前比特幣交易價為8.96萬美元/枚,一旦幣價跌破7.4萬美元,便意味著該公司持有的比特幣價值低于其買入成本。

          Strategy的擁躉辯稱,這恰是買入良機——若股價低于比特幣持倉價值,每股價格有望上漲,向比特幣價格靠攏;若比特幣重拾漲勢,公司股價甚至可能進一步攀升。

          但對于那些并非堅定信徒的交易者而言,這無疑是一場嚴峻考驗。試問,又有誰會愿意持有一只市值低于其底層資產價值的股票呢?(財富中文網)

          譯者:中慧言-王芳

          邁克爾·賽勒旗下比特幣資產管理公司Strategy股價1月2日早盤上漲1.22%,為公司贏得短暫喘息之機。自去年7月股價觸及歷史峰值以來,該股已累計下跌66%。1月2日晨,其市值與比特幣持倉價值比率(mNAV)——衡量公司市值與比特幣持倉價值相對關系的技術指標——顯示為1.02。

          若該指標跌破1,則意味著公司市值低于其持有的比特幣資產價值。屆時,眾多投資者或將拋售該股,原因是,對于一只旨在追蹤比特幣表現的股票而言,若其價值不及比特幣本身,那么持有此類股票便毫無意義。市值與比特幣持倉價值比率的計算公式為:mNAV=(公司總市值+總負債-現金儲備)÷比特幣總持倉量。當該數值低于1時,那么持有Strategy股票的理由就愈發難以站得住腳。

          自去年11月以來,該股的這一指標始終維持在危險區間之上。

          事實上,公司當前市值已低于其持有的比特幣資產價值。如今,公司市值為470億美元,而其持有的比特幣資產價值卻接近600億美元。這一現狀本身已構成高危信號。一旦市值與比特幣持倉價值比率跌破1,公司股價或將面臨前所未有的困境。

          《財富》雜志已聯系該公司尋求置評。

          塞勒本人一如既往地在社交媒體上唱多該公司股票(股票代碼MSTR),并發布圖表指出,該股“未平倉合約”(投資者未結清頭寸)規模已相當于公司市值的87%。這暗示該股交易活躍度極高(不過,這些未平倉合約中,很可能包含大量針對公司的做空頭寸)。他還發布了一張人工智能生成的圖片,畫面中,他正在馴服一頭北極熊。

          除了市值與比特幣持倉價值比率跌破1這一危險臨界值外,Strategy還面臨另一風險閾值——比特幣歷史平均買入價。該公司多年來累積的比特幣平均持倉成本約為7.4萬美元/枚。目前比特幣交易價為8.96萬美元/枚,一旦幣價跌破7.4萬美元,便意味著該公司持有的比特幣價值低于其買入成本。

          Strategy的擁躉辯稱,這恰是買入良機——若股價低于比特幣持倉價值,每股價格有望上漲,向比特幣價格靠攏;若比特幣重拾漲勢,公司股價甚至可能進一步攀升。

          但對于那些并非堅定信徒的交易者而言,這無疑是一場嚴峻考驗。試問,又有誰會愿意持有一只市值低于其底層資產價值的股票呢?(財富中文網)

          譯者:中慧言-王芳

          Stock in Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin treasury company, Strategy, was up 1.22% in early trading today, giving the company a brief period of relief. The stock has declined 66% since its high last July, and this morning its “mNAV” (market-to-net asset value)—a technical gauge of whether the company is worth more or less than the Bitcoin it holds—was at 1.02.

          If that gauge falls below 1, then technically the company is worth less than the Bitcoin it owns. At that point, the stock would likely be sold off by many investors because there is no point in owning a stock whose value is based on Bitcoin if the stock is worth less than the Bitcoin. mNAV is a measure of the company’s total market cap plus its debt, minus its cash, divided by its total Bitcoin reserve. If that value is worth less than 1 then the case for owning Strategy stock becomes harder to argue.

          The stock has been sitting above this danger zone since November.

          Already, the market cap of the company is worth less than its Bitcoin. Its market cap was $47 billion today; the Bitcoin held by the company is worth just under $60 billion. That on its own is a perilous position. But if the company’s mNAV falls below 1 then the stock potentially enters a new world of pain.

          Fortune contacted the company for comment.

          Saylor, as usual, has been tweeting bullishly about MSTR (Strategy) shares, including a chart showing that “open interest” (investor positions that have not been closed out) are the equivalent of 87% of the company’s market value. The implication is that the stock is highly traded (although many of those positions may be short bets against the company). He also posted an AI-generated picture of him taming a polar bear.

          Below the level of mNAV at 1 lies another dangerous threshold for Strategy: the average price at which Strategy has historically accumulated Bitcoin. Over the years, that price was about $74,000 per coin. Currently, Bitcoin trades at $89.6K. If the price were to fall below $74K it would imply that Strategy’s Bitcoin stash was worth less than what Saylor has paid for it.

          Strategy fans would argue that might be a time to buy—if the stock was worth less than its Bitcoin then the price per share might rise to meet the price of Bitcoin; it might rise even more if Bitcoin resumed its march higher.

          But that, again, would be a sore test for traders who are not true believers. Why hold a stock that is worth less than the underlying asset it represents?

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