
盡管企業(yè)利潤(rùn)飆升、美國(guó)GDP持續(xù)增長(zhǎng),該國(guó)勞動(dòng)力卻未能分享繁榮紅利。美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,勞動(dòng)者報(bào)酬在GDP中的占比正在不斷下降,同時(shí)美國(guó)就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭預(yù)計(jì)將持續(xù)放緩。
根據(jù)美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局在上周發(fā)布的《勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率與成本》報(bào)告,2025年第三季度勞動(dòng)收入占比(即以工資和薪金形式流向勞動(dòng)者的經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出百分比)降至53.8%,是自1947年該機(jī)構(gòu)追蹤這一經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)以來(lái)的最低水平。上一季度,這一比例為54.6%;本十年間,該指標(biāo)的平均值為55.6%。
與之形成鮮明對(duì)比的是,企業(yè)盈利飆升——2024年,《財(cái)富》美國(guó)500強(qiáng)企業(yè)的利潤(rùn)達(dá)到1.87萬(wàn)億美元,創(chuàng)下歷史新高。美國(guó)2025年第三季度GDP增長(zhǎng)4.3%,超出經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的預(yù)期。
經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家警示,這種經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)不僅以犧牲勞動(dòng)者的財(cái)富分配份額為代價(jià),還對(duì)美國(guó)勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)規(guī)模造成沖擊。
得克薩斯農(nóng)工大學(xué)(Texas A&M)布什政府與公共服務(wù)學(xué)院(Bush School of Government)的勞動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家雷蒙德·羅伯遜對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“勞動(dòng)收入占比下降,要么是因?yàn)閯趧?dòng)者薪資水平下滑,要么是因?yàn)榫蜆I(yè)人數(shù)減少。而收入占比降低的原因在于財(cái)富分配向資本端傾斜?!?/p>
事實(shí)上,越來(lái)越多的跡象表明,在國(guó)民收入不斷增長(zhǎng)的同時(shí),美國(guó)勞動(dòng)力規(guī)模卻在萎縮。2025年12月,美國(guó)失業(yè)率小幅回落至4.4%,但仍然高于一年前4.1%的水平。此外,2025年美國(guó)雇主新增就業(yè)崗位僅58.4萬(wàn)個(gè),而2024年的新增崗位數(shù)量高達(dá)200萬(wàn)個(gè)。
企業(yè)業(yè)績(jī)亮眼與勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)數(shù)據(jù)疲軟形成鮮明反差,這引發(fā)了經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的擔(dān)憂。他們認(rèn)為,這種“無(wú)就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)”現(xiàn)象不僅會(huì)損害美國(guó)勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng),還會(huì)加劇“K型經(jīng)濟(jì)”的分化趨勢(shì),即富人愈發(fā)富有,窮人愈發(fā)貧窮。
羅伯遜稱:“當(dāng)前各項(xiàng)數(shù)據(jù)呈現(xiàn)出復(fù)雜且矛盾的態(tài)勢(shì),但所有數(shù)據(jù)都指向同一個(gè)結(jié)論:勞動(dòng)者的處境正在不斷惡化,而億萬(wàn)富豪群體的境遇則持續(xù)向好?!?/p>
解析“無(wú)就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)”現(xiàn)象
羅伯遜將勞動(dòng)收入占比均值的持續(xù)走低歸因于自動(dòng)化技術(shù)的普及。他指出,自動(dòng)化正在取代人力崗位,而衡量勞動(dòng)者產(chǎn)出的生產(chǎn)率指標(biāo)卻在持續(xù)攀升。第三季度GDP數(shù)據(jù)顯示,美國(guó)非農(nóng)生產(chǎn)率的年化增長(zhǎng)率飆升至4.9%。
“所有這些因素正在逐步取代人力,同時(shí)也在不斷加劇收入與資本份額的集中化趨勢(shì)。”他說(shuō)。
高盛(Goldman Sachs)的分析師約瑟夫·布里格斯和薩拉·董在本周發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告中稱,基于美國(guó)勞工部(U.S. Department of Labor)的就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)測(cè)算,人工智能自動(dòng)化或?qū)⑷〈?5%的總工時(shí)。他們預(yù)測(cè),在人工智能技術(shù)普及應(yīng)用的階段,人工智能驅(qū)動(dòng)的生產(chǎn)率提升15%將導(dǎo)致6%至7%的崗位被取代,失業(yè)人數(shù)最多時(shí)將增加100萬(wàn)。
分析師指出,崗位替代規(guī)模雖然不容小覷,但技術(shù)變革催生的大量新崗位將緩解自動(dòng)化帶來(lái)的沖擊。
根據(jù)沃頓商學(xué)院(Wharton)2025年9月發(fā)布的簡(jiǎn)報(bào),自動(dòng)化預(yù)計(jì)將顯著提升企業(yè)利潤(rùn)和GDP,到2035年有望推動(dòng)美國(guó)GDP增長(zhǎng)1.5%。安永會(huì)計(jì)師事務(wù)所(EY)開展的《美國(guó)人工智能脈動(dòng)調(diào)查》顯示,已有初步跡象表明人工智能已經(jīng)開始推動(dòng)生產(chǎn)力提升——與人工智能領(lǐng)域投資不足的企業(yè)相比,投資金額達(dá)到1000萬(wàn)美元及以上的企業(yè),生產(chǎn)率已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)顯著提升。
羅伯遜補(bǔ)充道,失業(yè)率上升(預(yù)計(jì)將在未來(lái)數(shù)月持續(xù)攀升)會(huì)抑制工資增長(zhǎng),進(jìn)而推動(dòng)利潤(rùn)率和盈利規(guī)模擴(kuò)張。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家本周在給客戶的報(bào)告中指出,近期生產(chǎn)率飆升仍存“疑問”,并不能將其普遍歸因于人工智能或自動(dòng)化技術(shù)的普及。分析師認(rèn)為這種增長(zhǎng)可能是周期性的,或是新冠疫情時(shí)期企業(yè)以少博多商業(yè)策略的遺留效應(yīng)。
牛津經(jīng)濟(jì)研究院(Oxford Economists)在本月初發(fā)布的研究簡(jiǎn)報(bào)指出,企業(yè)正在將過度招聘導(dǎo)致的裁員,粉飾為人工智能技術(shù)應(yīng)用的必然結(jié)果,不過該報(bào)告稱,自動(dòng)化引發(fā)的大規(guī)模裁員尚未發(fā)生。此外,盡管過去一年失業(yè)率呈小幅上升態(tài)勢(shì),但仍然處于相對(duì)較低的水平。
移民政策收緊對(duì)美國(guó)勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)生反噬效應(yīng)
美國(guó)國(guó)家政策基金會(huì)(National Foundation for American Policy)的高級(jí)研究員馬克·雷格茨認(rèn)為勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)增長(zhǎng)放緩另有原因。他告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,特朗普政府推行的移民政策收緊,并未實(shí)現(xiàn)白宮副幕僚長(zhǎng)斯蒂芬·米勒等官員宣稱的“增加本土勞動(dòng)力數(shù)量”的目標(biāo)。相反,雷格茨指出,特朗普的移民政策不僅造成外籍勞動(dòng)力銳減,還導(dǎo)致美國(guó)本土勞動(dòng)者的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)減少。
美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局的最新家庭調(diào)查顯示,自2025年1月以來(lái),外籍勞動(dòng)力數(shù)量減少88.1萬(wàn)人,較2025年3月的峰值縮減了130萬(wàn)人。這一趨勢(shì)與美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)預(yù)算辦公室(Congressional Budget Office)在2025年發(fā)布的報(bào)告相吻合——該報(bào)告指出,由于移民被驅(qū)逐出境,或因?yàn)榧蓱劽绹?guó)敵對(duì)的政治環(huán)境而拒絕入境,美國(guó)人口增長(zhǎng)步伐放緩。
雷格茨說(shuō):“各項(xiàng)數(shù)據(jù)都在敲響警鐘——我們正在流失各類移民人才,而這些人本來(lái)可以推動(dòng)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?!?/p>
他補(bǔ)充道,美國(guó)失業(yè)率從2024年12月的3.7%持續(xù)攀升,這恰恰駁斥了米勒關(guān)于“移民政策收緊有助于擴(kuò)大美國(guó)勞動(dòng)力規(guī)模”的論點(diǎn)。事實(shí)上,外籍勞動(dòng)力減少反而可能導(dǎo)致美國(guó)本土勞動(dòng)者更難找到工作。
雷格茨稱:“若企業(yè)無(wú)法為特定崗位招到所需人才,那么該公司可能直接關(guān)停相關(guān)業(yè)務(wù),而非繼續(xù)運(yùn)營(yíng)?!?/p>
他指出,職場(chǎng)中的多元技能人才能夠提升生產(chǎn)率,進(jìn)而為擴(kuò)大雇傭規(guī)模提供有力支撐。與此同時(shí),移民數(shù)量的增加還可以促進(jìn)消費(fèi)支出、刺激商業(yè)活動(dòng),并且促使企業(yè)利用充裕的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)資源招募本土員工,而非將崗位外包至海外。
扭轉(zhuǎn)勞動(dòng)力萎縮趨勢(shì)
羅伯遜表示,雖然更友好的移民政策有助于扭轉(zhuǎn)外籍勞動(dòng)力外流的趨勢(shì),但要擴(kuò)大美國(guó)勞動(dòng)力規(guī)模,關(guān)鍵在于應(yīng)對(duì)工作場(chǎng)所的自動(dòng)化浪潮。
他說(shuō):“如今,諸多行業(yè)開展工作均需依托技術(shù)賦能,這類崗位的需求將持續(xù)增長(zhǎng),但從業(yè)者仍然需要投入大量精力提升專業(yè)技能?!?/p>
年輕一代勞動(dòng)者已經(jīng)做好準(zhǔn)備,積極適應(yīng)不斷變化的就業(yè)環(huán)境。美國(guó)學(xué)生信息交換中心(National Student Clearinghouse)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,Z世代正在紛紛涌入職業(yè)技術(shù)學(xué)校,期望謀得木工、焊工等不易被人工智能取代的工作;2024年,職業(yè)類社區(qū)大學(xué)的入學(xué)人數(shù)增長(zhǎng)了16%。
企業(yè)也已經(jīng)主動(dòng)承擔(dān)起為員工提供再培訓(xùn)的責(zé)任。2024年,Express Employment Professionals與哈里斯聯(lián)合開展的民意調(diào)查顯示,68%的招聘經(jīng)理計(jì)劃在年內(nèi)為員工提供再培訓(xùn),這一比例較2021年的60%有所提升。盡管美國(guó)勞工部更新了相關(guān)指導(dǎo)方針,鼓勵(lì)各州完善職場(chǎng)技能培養(yǎng)體系,但羅伯遜指出,數(shù)十年來(lái),政府在助力勞動(dòng)者掌握未來(lái)就業(yè)所需技能方面做得還遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不夠。
羅伯遜表示:“民主黨與共和黨均未在勞動(dòng)者技能培訓(xùn)、再培訓(xùn),以及積極勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)項(xiàng)目(實(shí)現(xiàn)勞動(dòng)者與崗位精準(zhǔn)匹配)上投入足夠的資源。這才是破解當(dāng)前困局的明確出路?!?/p>
經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家警告稱,若不作調(diào)整,就業(yè)市場(chǎng)增長(zhǎng)放緩的態(tài)勢(shì)將持續(xù)下去,同時(shí)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)維持增長(zhǎng)的能力也將引發(fā)更大擔(dān)憂。
雷格茨說(shuō):“經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)需要就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)支撐,償還債務(wù)同樣離不開就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)。在勞動(dòng)力持續(xù)萎縮的情況下,實(shí)在難以想象如何才能實(shí)現(xiàn)就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
盡管企業(yè)利潤(rùn)飆升、美國(guó)GDP持續(xù)增長(zhǎng),該國(guó)勞動(dòng)力卻未能分享繁榮紅利。美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,勞動(dòng)者報(bào)酬在GDP中的占比正在不斷下降,同時(shí)美國(guó)就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭預(yù)計(jì)將持續(xù)放緩。
根據(jù)美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局在上周發(fā)布的《勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率與成本》報(bào)告,2025年第三季度勞動(dòng)收入占比(即以工資和薪金形式流向勞動(dòng)者的經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出百分比)降至53.8%,是自1947年該機(jī)構(gòu)追蹤這一經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)以來(lái)的最低水平。上一季度,這一比例為54.6%;本十年間,該指標(biāo)的平均值為55.6%。
與之形成鮮明對(duì)比的是,企業(yè)盈利飆升——2024年,《財(cái)富》美國(guó)500強(qiáng)企業(yè)的利潤(rùn)達(dá)到1.87萬(wàn)億美元,創(chuàng)下歷史新高。美國(guó)2025年第三季度GDP增長(zhǎng)4.3%,超出經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的預(yù)期。
經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家警示,這種經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)不僅以犧牲勞動(dòng)者的財(cái)富分配份額為代價(jià),還對(duì)美國(guó)勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)規(guī)模造成沖擊。
得克薩斯農(nóng)工大學(xué)(Texas A&M)布什政府與公共服務(wù)學(xué)院(Bush School of Government)的勞動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家雷蒙德·羅伯遜對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“勞動(dòng)收入占比下降,要么是因?yàn)閯趧?dòng)者薪資水平下滑,要么是因?yàn)榫蜆I(yè)人數(shù)減少。而收入占比降低的原因在于財(cái)富分配向資本端傾斜?!?/p>
事實(shí)上,越來(lái)越多的跡象表明,在國(guó)民收入不斷增長(zhǎng)的同時(shí),美國(guó)勞動(dòng)力規(guī)模卻在萎縮。2025年12月,美國(guó)失業(yè)率小幅回落至4.4%,但仍然高于一年前4.1%的水平。此外,2025年美國(guó)雇主新增就業(yè)崗位僅58.4萬(wàn)個(gè),而2024年的新增崗位數(shù)量高達(dá)200萬(wàn)個(gè)。
企業(yè)業(yè)績(jī)亮眼與勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)數(shù)據(jù)疲軟形成鮮明反差,這引發(fā)了經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的擔(dān)憂。他們認(rèn)為,這種“無(wú)就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)”現(xiàn)象不僅會(huì)損害美國(guó)勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng),還會(huì)加劇“K型經(jīng)濟(jì)”的分化趨勢(shì),即富人愈發(fā)富有,窮人愈發(fā)貧窮。
羅伯遜稱:“當(dāng)前各項(xiàng)數(shù)據(jù)呈現(xiàn)出復(fù)雜且矛盾的態(tài)勢(shì),但所有數(shù)據(jù)都指向同一個(gè)結(jié)論:勞動(dòng)者的處境正在不斷惡化,而億萬(wàn)富豪群體的境遇則持續(xù)向好?!?/p>
解析“無(wú)就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)”現(xiàn)象
羅伯遜將勞動(dòng)收入占比均值的持續(xù)走低歸因于自動(dòng)化技術(shù)的普及。他指出,自動(dòng)化正在取代人力崗位,而衡量勞動(dòng)者產(chǎn)出的生產(chǎn)率指標(biāo)卻在持續(xù)攀升。第三季度GDP數(shù)據(jù)顯示,美國(guó)非農(nóng)生產(chǎn)率的年化增長(zhǎng)率飆升至4.9%。
“所有這些因素正在逐步取代人力,同時(shí)也在不斷加劇收入與資本份額的集中化趨勢(shì)?!彼f(shuō)。
高盛(Goldman Sachs)的分析師約瑟夫·布里格斯和薩拉·董在本周發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告中稱,基于美國(guó)勞工部(U.S. Department of Labor)的就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)測(cè)算,人工智能自動(dòng)化或?qū)⑷〈?5%的總工時(shí)。他們預(yù)測(cè),在人工智能技術(shù)普及應(yīng)用的階段,人工智能驅(qū)動(dòng)的生產(chǎn)率提升15%將導(dǎo)致6%至7%的崗位被取代,失業(yè)人數(shù)最多時(shí)將增加100萬(wàn)。
分析師指出,崗位替代規(guī)模雖然不容小覷,但技術(shù)變革催生的大量新崗位將緩解自動(dòng)化帶來(lái)的沖擊。
根據(jù)沃頓商學(xué)院(Wharton)2025年9月發(fā)布的簡(jiǎn)報(bào),自動(dòng)化預(yù)計(jì)將顯著提升企業(yè)利潤(rùn)和GDP,到2035年有望推動(dòng)美國(guó)GDP增長(zhǎng)1.5%。安永會(huì)計(jì)師事務(wù)所(EY)開展的《美國(guó)人工智能脈動(dòng)調(diào)查》顯示,已有初步跡象表明人工智能已經(jīng)開始推動(dòng)生產(chǎn)力提升——與人工智能領(lǐng)域投資不足的企業(yè)相比,投資金額達(dá)到1000萬(wàn)美元及以上的企業(yè),生產(chǎn)率已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)顯著提升。
羅伯遜補(bǔ)充道,失業(yè)率上升(預(yù)計(jì)將在未來(lái)數(shù)月持續(xù)攀升)會(huì)抑制工資增長(zhǎng),進(jìn)而推動(dòng)利潤(rùn)率和盈利規(guī)模擴(kuò)張。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家本周在給客戶的報(bào)告中指出,近期生產(chǎn)率飆升仍存“疑問”,并不能將其普遍歸因于人工智能或自動(dòng)化技術(shù)的普及。分析師認(rèn)為這種增長(zhǎng)可能是周期性的,或是新冠疫情時(shí)期企業(yè)以少博多商業(yè)策略的遺留效應(yīng)。
牛津經(jīng)濟(jì)研究院(Oxford Economists)在本月初發(fā)布的研究簡(jiǎn)報(bào)指出,企業(yè)正在將過度招聘導(dǎo)致的裁員,粉飾為人工智能技術(shù)應(yīng)用的必然結(jié)果,不過該報(bào)告稱,自動(dòng)化引發(fā)的大規(guī)模裁員尚未發(fā)生。此外,盡管過去一年失業(yè)率呈小幅上升態(tài)勢(shì),但仍然處于相對(duì)較低的水平。
移民政策收緊對(duì)美國(guó)勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)生反噬效應(yīng)
美國(guó)國(guó)家政策基金會(huì)(National Foundation for American Policy)的高級(jí)研究員馬克·雷格茨認(rèn)為勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)增長(zhǎng)放緩另有原因。他告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,特朗普政府推行的移民政策收緊,并未實(shí)現(xiàn)白宮副幕僚長(zhǎng)斯蒂芬·米勒等官員宣稱的“增加本土勞動(dòng)力數(shù)量”的目標(biāo)。相反,雷格茨指出,特朗普的移民政策不僅造成外籍勞動(dòng)力銳減,還導(dǎo)致美國(guó)本土勞動(dòng)者的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)減少。
美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局的最新家庭調(diào)查顯示,自2025年1月以來(lái),外籍勞動(dòng)力數(shù)量減少88.1萬(wàn)人,較2025年3月的峰值縮減了130萬(wàn)人。這一趨勢(shì)與美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)預(yù)算辦公室(Congressional Budget Office)在2025年發(fā)布的報(bào)告相吻合——該報(bào)告指出,由于移民被驅(qū)逐出境,或因?yàn)榧蓱劽绹?guó)敵對(duì)的政治環(huán)境而拒絕入境,美國(guó)人口增長(zhǎng)步伐放緩。
雷格茨說(shuō):“各項(xiàng)數(shù)據(jù)都在敲響警鐘——我們正在流失各類移民人才,而這些人本來(lái)可以推動(dòng)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?!?/p>
他補(bǔ)充道,美國(guó)失業(yè)率從2024年12月的3.7%持續(xù)攀升,這恰恰駁斥了米勒關(guān)于“移民政策收緊有助于擴(kuò)大美國(guó)勞動(dòng)力規(guī)?!钡恼擖c(diǎn)。事實(shí)上,外籍勞動(dòng)力減少反而可能導(dǎo)致美國(guó)本土勞動(dòng)者更難找到工作。
雷格茨稱:“若企業(yè)無(wú)法為特定崗位招到所需人才,那么該公司可能直接關(guān)停相關(guān)業(yè)務(wù),而非繼續(xù)運(yùn)營(yíng)?!?/p>
他指出,職場(chǎng)中的多元技能人才能夠提升生產(chǎn)率,進(jìn)而為擴(kuò)大雇傭規(guī)模提供有力支撐。與此同時(shí),移民數(shù)量的增加還可以促進(jìn)消費(fèi)支出、刺激商業(yè)活動(dòng),并且促使企業(yè)利用充裕的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)資源招募本土員工,而非將崗位外包至海外。
扭轉(zhuǎn)勞動(dòng)力萎縮趨勢(shì)
羅伯遜表示,雖然更友好的移民政策有助于扭轉(zhuǎn)外籍勞動(dòng)力外流的趨勢(shì),但要擴(kuò)大美國(guó)勞動(dòng)力規(guī)模,關(guān)鍵在于應(yīng)對(duì)工作場(chǎng)所的自動(dòng)化浪潮。
他說(shuō):“如今,諸多行業(yè)開展工作均需依托技術(shù)賦能,這類崗位的需求將持續(xù)增長(zhǎng),但從業(yè)者仍然需要投入大量精力提升專業(yè)技能?!?/p>
年輕一代勞動(dòng)者已經(jīng)做好準(zhǔn)備,積極適應(yīng)不斷變化的就業(yè)環(huán)境。美國(guó)學(xué)生信息交換中心(National Student Clearinghouse)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,Z世代正在紛紛涌入職業(yè)技術(shù)學(xué)校,期望謀得木工、焊工等不易被人工智能取代的工作;2024年,職業(yè)類社區(qū)大學(xué)的入學(xué)人數(shù)增長(zhǎng)了16%。
企業(yè)也已經(jīng)主動(dòng)承擔(dān)起為員工提供再培訓(xùn)的責(zé)任。2024年,Express Employment Professionals與哈里斯聯(lián)合開展的民意調(diào)查顯示,68%的招聘經(jīng)理計(jì)劃在年內(nèi)為員工提供再培訓(xùn),這一比例較2021年的60%有所提升。盡管美國(guó)勞工部更新了相關(guān)指導(dǎo)方針,鼓勵(lì)各州完善職場(chǎng)技能培養(yǎng)體系,但羅伯遜指出,數(shù)十年來(lái),政府在助力勞動(dòng)者掌握未來(lái)就業(yè)所需技能方面做得還遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不夠。
羅伯遜表示:“民主黨與共和黨均未在勞動(dòng)者技能培訓(xùn)、再培訓(xùn),以及積極勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)項(xiàng)目(實(shí)現(xiàn)勞動(dòng)者與崗位精準(zhǔn)匹配)上投入足夠的資源。這才是破解當(dāng)前困局的明確出路?!?/p>
經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家警告稱,若不作調(diào)整,就業(yè)市場(chǎng)增長(zhǎng)放緩的態(tài)勢(shì)將持續(xù)下去,同時(shí)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)維持增長(zhǎng)的能力也將引發(fā)更大擔(dān)憂。
雷格茨說(shuō):“經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)需要就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)支撐,償還債務(wù)同樣離不開就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)。在勞動(dòng)力持續(xù)萎縮的情況下,實(shí)在難以想象如何才能實(shí)現(xiàn)就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
As corporate earnings soar and the U.S. GDP balloons, the American workforce isn’t feeling the same boom. American workers are taking home less of the country’s overall wealth, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show, and employment in the U.S. is set to continue to slow.
Labor share, or the portion of the U.S.’s economic output that workers receive through salary and wages, decreased to 53.8% in the third quarter of 2025, its lowest level since the BLS started recording this data in 1947, according to its labor productivity and costs report published last week. In the previous quarter, labor share was at 54.6%. This decade, the labor share average was 55.6%.
That’s despite corporate earnings skyrocketing, with profits for Fortune 500 companies hitting a record $1.87 trillion in 2024. The U.S. GDP grew 4.3% in the third quarter last year, exceeding economists’ predictions.
That growth has not only come at the expense of how much of the pie of wealth workers are taking home, but also how many Americans are in the workforce, economists warn.
“That decline in the share of labor has got to be either falling earnings or falling numbers of people,” Raymond Robertson, a labor economist at Texas A&M’s Bush School of Government, told Fortune. “The falling share of income is having to do with the shift towards capital.”
Indeed, there are growing signs that as national income balloons, the U.S. workforce is deflating. Unemployment ticked down to 4.4% in December, but still sits above the 4.1% rate from 12 months before. Moreover, employers added just 584,000 jobs in 2025 compared to 2 million added in 2024.
The stark bifurcation of corporate victories and weak labor data raises concerns among economists of jobless growth jeopardizing the U.S. workforce, as well as a K-shaped economy, where the rich get richer while the poor get poorer, becoming more exaggerated.
“Data right now is very mixed,” Robertson said. “But I think it also all consistently points to this idea that things are getting worse for workers and much better for billionaires.”
Making sense of jobless growth
Robertson attributes weakening labor share averages to the rise in automation, which he noted is displacing workers, with productivity—a metric essentially measuring worker output—continuing to rise. Third-quarter GDP data showed nonfarm productivity growth soared to an annualized rate of 4.9%.
“All these things, bit by bit, are replacing people, and they’re concentrating income and their share of capital,” he said.
Goldman Sachs analysts Joseph Briggs and Sarah Dong estimated in a report this week, based on Department of Labor job numbers, that AI automation could displace 25% of all work hours. They predicted that over the course of the AI adoption period, a 15% increase in AI-driven productivity would displace 6% to 7% of jobs, and, at its peak, a 1 million increase in unemployed workers.
The displacement is substantial, the analysts said, but said the impacts of automation will be tempered by a wealth of new jobs created as a result of the technological changes.
Automation is expected to be a boon to corporate profits and GDP, expected to boost GDP by 1.5% by 2035, according to a Wharton brief published in September 2025. Early signs indicate AI is already driving productivity gains, with companies who invested $10 million or more in AI reporting significant productivity gains compared to organizations investing less in the technology, according to EY’s U.S. AI Pulse Survey.
Robertson added that growing unemployment, which he expects to see rise over the next few months, keeps wages down, allowing margins and profits to expand.
To be sure, the recent productivity surge has been an “open question,” Morgan Stanley economists wrote in a note to clients this week, not unanimously attributed to increased adoption of AI or automation. The analysts suggested this increase would be cyclical, or vestigates of pandemic-era habits of companies making more from less.
An Oxford Economists research brief published earlier this month suggested companies are disguising overhiring-related layoffs as a result of AI, but said automation-related workforce reductions have not yet happened en masse. Additionally, while unemployment has been ticking up over the past year, it is still relatively low.
An immigration crackdown backfires on U.S. labor
Mark Regets, senior fellow at National Foundation for American Policy, sees a different reason for a slowing workforce. He told Fortune President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown has not done what Trump administration officials, such as White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, said it would in increasing the number of U.S.-born workers. Instead, according to Regets, Trump’s immigration policies have not only decimated the foreign-born workforce, but has also created fewer opportunities for domestic-born workers to find jobs.
The most recent BLS household survey reveals a decline of 881,000 foreign-born workers since January 2025, and a decline of 1.3 million workers since a March 2025 peak, consistent with the Congressional Budget Office’s report last year indicating shrinking U.S. population growth as a result of migrants being deported or refusing to come to the U.S. out of fear of hostile polities.
“The data is raising huge red flags that we are losing immigrants of all types that we otherwise would be advancing America’s economy,” Regets said.
The rising U.S. unemployment rate, up from 3.7% in December 2024 is counterevidence to Miller’s argument that harsher immigration policy would grow the U.S. workforce, he added. In fact, fewer immigrant workers may actually make it harder for U.S.-born individuals to find work.
“A company unable to find the workers it needs for some roles could shut down operations rather than continuing,” Regets said.
He noted that skillset diversity in a workplace could boost productivity and justify employing more people. Greater immigration can also increase consumer spending and stimulate businesses, as well as encourage businesses to take advantage of ample labor market availability and seek out their labor instead of offshoring jobs.
Reversing a shrinking labor force
While friendlier immigration policies could help reverse an exodus of foreign-born workers, Robertson said addressing the workplace automation push would be key to growing the U.S. workforce.
“There are trades that are technology-assisted,” he said. “Those are going to be in higher demand, but you really still have to have a significant investment in skills.”
The young generation of workers are already prepared to adapt to a changing labor landscape. Gen Z are flocking to trade schools in hopes of a finding a job as a carpenter or welder not so easily outsourced by AI, and in 2024, enrollment in vocation-based community colleges increased 16%, according to data from the National Student Clearinghouse.
Companies have taken it upon themselves to provide reskilling opportunities to employees. An Express Employment Professionals-Harris Poll survey from 2024 found that 68% of hiring managers intended to reskill employees at some point during the year, up from 60% in 2021. While the U.S. Department of Labor updated guidelines to encourage states to adapt workplace development systems, Robertson argued the government hasn’t done enough in several decades to imbue the workforce with necessary skillsets for future jobs.
“Democrats and Republicans have not significantly invested in training [or] the retraining or active labor market programs that you need to match workers to jobs,” Robertson said. “That’s the obvious solution.”
Without changes, economists see the pattern of an employment slowdown continuing, but with greater concern about the ability for the U.S. economy to sustain growth.
“We need job growth to have a growing economy, and I think we need job growth to pay our debts,” Regets said. “I don’t know how you have job growth with a shrinking labor force.”