毫無疑問,AI完成部分入門級工作的能力正持續提升,而其成本遠低于企業招聘并培訓年輕專業人士的投入。摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)的一份報告估計,企業通過自動化縮減用工規模,每年可節省數十億美元開支。事實上,斯坦福大學(Stanford University)在2025年發布的一項研究發現,AI已經“開始對美國勞動力市場中的入門級崗位產生顯著且不成比例的沖擊”,在受AI影響最嚴重的職業中,22至25歲勞動者的就業率降幅高達13%。
然而,盡管用AI替代入門級員工在短期內可以提升企業利潤,但從長期來看,這種做法將掏空人才儲備,埋下嚴重隱患。職場的“學徒階段”,本應是年輕員工從低成本試錯中積累經驗、在資深導師指導下成長、并錘煉審慎商業判斷力的關鍵時期,如果企業將這個階段的工作自動化,很可能會催生一代“失落的”知識型勞動者:這些人雖有工作崗位,卻完全不具備勝任未來領導角色的能力。
最終,這個問題不只會困擾應屆畢業生。當下這一代企業管理者或許正通過用技術替代人力成本來獲取商業收益;但這樣做也意味著,他們會放棄對企業未來發展至關重要的人力資本進行再投資。在這一過程中,他們實際上可能正在把組織的長期可持續性乃至生存能力置于風險之中。最重要的是,即便那些實現入門級崗位自動化的企業在個體層面仍能保持良好業績,但此類行為的總體疊加效應卻可能在國家層面造成重大人才缺口,在未來數十年將削弱美國的整體實力,損害其全球競爭地位。
傳統模式下,企業管理者愿意投入資源招聘并培養新員工,也清楚這些員工需要一定時間學習沉淀,才能真正實現高效產出、為組織成功貢獻重要價值。他們明白,無論新員工的學歷背景多優異,真正的職業成長往往發生在實際工作場景之中。
而如今,許多企業卻轉而依賴AI和其他技術進步,去替代曾由入門級員工承擔的角色。誠然,資深員工正逐步掌握運用新技術的能力,可以借助技術推動企業發展、實現組織目標;但問題在于——當這些人因跳槽、退休或其他原因離開時,企業將陷入何等境地?屆時,企業將只剩下一堆技術系統,卻缺乏真正具備專業能力和判斷力的人才,無法有效運用這些系統,更無從對技術提出合理質疑。
事實上,本應在企業內部歷經數年打磨,成長為訓練有素、技術嫻熟、知識豐富的一代核心人才,很可能徹底缺位。尤其是在當下,許多企業高管都是即將退休的“嬰兒潮一代”,人才斷層風險更加突出。如果企業過度用技術替代初級專業人員,卻又沒有為足夠規模的新一代職場“學徒”提供學習機會,他們很快就會面臨高層管理人才稀缺的困境。更糟的是,企業文化(正如彼得·德魯克那句名言所說:“文化能把戰略當早餐吃掉”)也將失去賴以延續傳承的“肌肉記憶”。
賓夕法尼亞大學(University of Pennsylvania)沃頓商學院訪問學者、全球聯盟POZE主任科妮莉亞·C·沃爾特,曾在學院期刊《沃頓知識在線》(Knowledge at Wharton)中發出警示:“企業正面臨一場完美風暴。經驗最豐富的專業人士不斷流失,而培養新一代高技能員工的機制卻被自動化取代。這造成了系統思維中所謂的‘延遲反饋問題’:短期的效率提升掩蓋了長期后果,直到企業應對復雜挑戰時出現知識缺口,這些隱患才會真正爆發。”
在印第安納大學凱利商學院,我們定期通過院長AI圓桌會議,與來自多個重要行業的資深企業高管交流。與會者達成的一項核心共識是:商科教育培養的畢業生,既要有扎實的技術能力,還必須具備堅定的職業操守和組織敏捷性。他們也普遍認為,企業不應因對AI的過度反應,而摧毀培養下一代管理者的入門級崗位成長平臺。
這些高管以及我接觸過的其他管理者都認為,技術能力只是職場準入的基本門檻。對如今的初級職場新人而言,掌握AI應用能力,就和幾年前必須熟練使用Excel一樣,是基礎必備技能。但他們一致指出,真正拉開求職者差距的是另一組能力:應對突發問題的能力、平衡多方利益沖突的能力、作出理性判斷和科學決策的能力、批判性思維能力,以及具備情商、能夠在團隊中高效協作并建立信任關系的能力。這些能力歷來是且至今依然是商業成功的核心“秘方”。
考慮到美國GDP中服務經濟占比極高,這一點顯得尤為重要。機器人固然可以向客戶提供許多高度標準化的服務,但真正讓企業脫穎而出的,將是只有人類才能提供的個性化體驗。事實上,如果缺乏具備人際交往能力的人才,美國企業在全球市場上的競爭力可能會日益落后于其他國家。
企業從來都不只是技術工具的集合體,而是復雜的社會系統。管理者仍然必須依靠人來推動業務運轉,并在人力資源與技術資源之間找到平衡。歸根結底,企業不能忽視未來五年乃至更長遠周期內所需的人力資本儲備。簡而言之,企業必須樹立長期規劃思維,認識到盲目追捧新潮技術、卻忽視真正成就組織卓越的人才,是一種短視行為。入門級工作或許可以被AI以更低成本輕易復制,但入門級員工不會永遠停留在入門階段,他們在職業生涯初期積累的經驗和能力,對企業的長期成功至關重要。
本文作者特里克·E·霍普金斯現任印第安納大學(Indiana University)凱利商學院院長,同時擔任詹姆斯·R·霍奇卓越講席教授及會計學教授。他曾榮獲多項教學獎項,并以其具有深遠影響力的研究而聞名,先后榮獲美國會計學會(American Accounting Association)著名的懷爾德曼獎章和會計文獻杰出貢獻獎。他曾擔任美國財務會計準則委員會(Financial Accounting Standards Board)財務會計準則咨詢委員會成員,并曾任《會計評論》(The Accounting Review)主編。
Fortune.com上發表的評論文章中表達的觀點,僅代表作者本人的觀點,不代表《財富》雜志的觀點和立場。(財富中文網)
譯者:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
毫無疑問,AI完成部分入門級工作的能力正持續提升,而其成本遠低于企業招聘并培訓年輕專業人士的投入。摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)的一份報告估計,企業通過自動化縮減用工規模,每年可節省數十億美元開支。事實上,斯坦福大學(Stanford University)在2025年發布的一項研究發現,AI已經“開始對美國勞動力市場中的入門級崗位產生顯著且不成比例的沖擊”,在受AI影響最嚴重的職業中,22至25歲勞動者的就業率降幅高達13%。
然而,盡管用AI替代入門級員工在短期內可以提升企業利潤,但從長期來看,這種做法將掏空人才儲備,埋下嚴重隱患。職場的“學徒階段”,本應是年輕員工從低成本試錯中積累經驗、在資深導師指導下成長、并錘煉審慎商業判斷力的關鍵時期,如果企業將這個階段的工作自動化,很可能會催生一代“失落的”知識型勞動者:這些人雖有工作崗位,卻完全不具備勝任未來領導角色的能力。
最終,這個問題不只會困擾應屆畢業生。當下這一代企業管理者或許正通過用技術替代人力成本來獲取商業收益;但這樣做也意味著,他們會放棄對企業未來發展至關重要的人力資本進行再投資。在這一過程中,他們實際上可能正在把組織的長期可持續性乃至生存能力置于風險之中。最重要的是,即便那些實現入門級崗位自動化的企業在個體層面仍能保持良好業績,但此類行為的總體疊加效應卻可能在國家層面造成重大人才缺口,在未來數十年將削弱美國的整體實力,損害其全球競爭地位。
傳統模式下,企業管理者愿意投入資源招聘并培養新員工,也清楚這些員工需要一定時間學習沉淀,才能真正實現高效產出、為組織成功貢獻重要價值。他們明白,無論新員工的學歷背景多優異,真正的職業成長往往發生在實際工作場景之中。
而如今,許多企業卻轉而依賴AI和其他技術進步,去替代曾由入門級員工承擔的角色。誠然,資深員工正逐步掌握運用新技術的能力,可以借助技術推動企業發展、實現組織目標;但問題在于——當這些人因跳槽、退休或其他原因離開時,企業將陷入何等境地?屆時,企業將只剩下一堆技術系統,卻缺乏真正具備專業能力和判斷力的人才,無法有效運用這些系統,更無從對技術提出合理質疑。
事實上,本應在企業內部歷經數年打磨,成長為訓練有素、技術嫻熟、知識豐富的一代核心人才,很可能徹底缺位。尤其是在當下,許多企業高管都是即將退休的“嬰兒潮一代”,人才斷層風險更加突出。如果企業過度用技術替代初級專業人員,卻又沒有為足夠規模的新一代職場“學徒”提供學習機會,他們很快就會面臨高層管理人才稀缺的困境。更糟的是,企業文化(正如彼得·德魯克那句名言所說:“文化能把戰略當早餐吃掉”)也將失去賴以延續傳承的“肌肉記憶”。
賓夕法尼亞大學(University of Pennsylvania)沃頓商學院訪問學者、全球聯盟POZE主任科妮莉亞·C·沃爾特,曾在學院期刊《沃頓知識在線》(Knowledge at Wharton)中發出警示:“企業正面臨一場完美風暴。經驗最豐富的專業人士不斷流失,而培養新一代高技能員工的機制卻被自動化取代。這造成了系統思維中所謂的‘延遲反饋問題’:短期的效率提升掩蓋了長期后果,直到企業應對復雜挑戰時出現知識缺口,這些隱患才會真正爆發。”
在印第安納大學凱利商學院,我們定期通過院長AI圓桌會議,與來自多個重要行業的資深企業高管交流。與會者達成的一項核心共識是:商科教育培養的畢業生,既要有扎實的技術能力,還必須具備堅定的職業操守和組織敏捷性。他們也普遍認為,企業不應因對AI的過度反應,而摧毀培養下一代管理者的入門級崗位成長平臺。
這些高管以及我接觸過的其他管理者都認為,技術能力只是職場準入的基本門檻。對如今的初級職場新人而言,掌握AI應用能力,就和幾年前必須熟練使用Excel一樣,是基礎必備技能。但他們一致指出,真正拉開求職者差距的是另一組能力:應對突發問題的能力、平衡多方利益沖突的能力、作出理性判斷和科學決策的能力、批判性思維能力,以及具備情商、能夠在團隊中高效協作并建立信任關系的能力。這些能力歷來是且至今依然是商業成功的核心“秘方”。
考慮到美國GDP中服務經濟占比極高,這一點顯得尤為重要。機器人固然可以向客戶提供許多高度標準化的服務,但真正讓企業脫穎而出的,將是只有人類才能提供的個性化體驗。事實上,如果缺乏具備人際交往能力的人才,美國企業在全球市場上的競爭力可能會日益落后于其他國家。
企業從來都不只是技術工具的集合體,而是復雜的社會系統。管理者仍然必須依靠人來推動業務運轉,并在人力資源與技術資源之間找到平衡。歸根結底,企業不能忽視未來五年乃至更長遠周期內所需的人力資本儲備。簡而言之,企業必須樹立長期規劃思維,認識到盲目追捧新潮技術、卻忽視真正成就組織卓越的人才,是一種短視行為。入門級工作或許可以被AI以更低成本輕易復制,但入門級員工不會永遠停留在入門階段,他們在職業生涯初期積累的經驗和能力,對企業的長期成功至關重要。
本文作者特里克·E·霍普金斯現任印第安納大學(Indiana University)凱利商學院院長,同時擔任詹姆斯·R·霍奇卓越講席教授及會計學教授。他曾榮獲多項教學獎項,并以其具有深遠影響力的研究而聞名,先后榮獲美國會計學會(American Accounting Association)著名的懷爾德曼獎章和會計文獻杰出貢獻獎。他曾擔任美國財務會計準則委員會(Financial Accounting Standards Board)財務會計準則咨詢委員會成員,并曾任《會計評論》(The Accounting Review)主編。
Fortune.com上發表的評論文章中表達的觀點,僅代表作者本人的觀點,不代表《財富》雜志的觀點和立場。(財富中文網)
譯者:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
Without question, AI increasingly has the ability to complete some entry-level tasks at far less cost to companies than the hiring and training of young professionals. A report by J.P. Morgan estimates that corporations can save billions of dollars a year by employing fewer people through automation. And, in fact, a 2025 study out of Stanford University has found that AI is already “beginning to have a significant and disproportionate impact on entry-level workers in the American labor market,” with workers between the ages of 22 and 25 in the most AI-exposed occupations experiencing a 13 percent decline in employment.
Yet while replacing entry-level workers with AI can boost profits in the short term, it will ultimately drain the talent pool and create real vulnerabilities over the long haul. By automating the “apprentice” stage of work—the time when young workers learn how to make low-cost mistakes, gain guidance from experienced mentors, and practice thoughtful business judgment—companies risk creating a lost generation of knowledge workers who are technically employed but unprepared to lead.
In the end, this won’t just be a problem for new graduates. Today’s generation of managers may be extracting gains from their businesses by substituting technology for labor costs, but by doing so, they are also failing to reinvest in the human resources that their companies need to thrive into the future. In the process, they may be risking their organizations’ sustainability and survival over the long haul. Most important, even though some firms that automate entry-level roles may continue to perform well individually, the collective impact could be a major national talent deficit, jeopardizing the United States at large for decades and damaging its competitive position worldwide.
Traditionally, business leaders have been willing to invest in hiring and onboarding new employees, recognizing that it will take some time for those workers to learn enough to be as productive as possible and fully contribute to the organization’s success. They’ve recognized that, however well-educated a new employee might be, that person will usually learn much more once they’re actually on the job.
Today, however, many companies are instead relying on AI and other technological advances to replace the roles that entry-level employees once played. And while many more-seasoned workers are becoming competent enough to apply such new technologies in ways that can advance an organization and its objectives, what will happen when that organization starts to lose those individuals as they move to other firms, retire, or depart for other reasons? It will be left with a variety of technical systems, but without the people who have the expertise or judgment to apply—and question—those systems effectively.
In fact, an entire tranche of well-trained, skilled, and knowledgeable individuals who previously would have gained such expertise within a few years at that company may very well not be there, especially given that many senior managers in companies today are Baby Boomers on the verge of retiring. If companies replace too many junior professionals with technology and do not provide a sufficiently large entry class of new “apprentices” opportunities to learn the business, they may soon find senior leaders increasingly hard to find. Worse, company culture—yes, the organizational element that Peter Drucker famously wrote “eats strategy for breakfast”—will not have the muscle memory to survive.
As Cornelia C. Walther, a visiting scholar at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business and director of global alliance POZE, has warned in the school’s journal, Knowledge at Wharton: “Organizations face a perfect storm. Their most experienced professionals are leaving while the mechanism for creating new skilled workers have been automated away. This creates what systems thinkers call a ‘delayed feedback problem’—the immediate efficiency gains mask longer-term consequences that won’t become apparent until knowledge gaps emerge during complex challenges.”
At the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University, we regularly engage with our Dean’s AI Roundtable of seasoned executives whose companies span a wide variety of important industries. A key consensus among the roundtable participants is that business education must produce graduates who are not only technically fluent but also ethically grounded and organizationally agile. They also broadly acknowledge that companies should not overreact by decimating the entry-level training ground for the next generation of company leaders.
They and other executives with whom I’ve spoken view technological competency as table stakes, meaning AI fluency is as essential to any entry professional as Excel skills were just a couple years ago. However, they all indicate that the separating characteristics that differentiate candidates are those such as the ability to deal with unexpected problems, to balance competing interests, to demonstrate good judgment and make sound decisions, to have critical-thinking skills, and to have the EQ to work well in teams and establish relationships of trust. Those have always been and still are the key ingredients to the secret sauce of how good business gets done.
That’s especially the case given how much of our nation’s GDP is made up of a service economy. Robots can certainly provide many highly defined services to customers, but what will distinguish companies from the pack is the ability to offer customers and clients the personal touch only people can provide. Indeed, without relationally skilled individuals, U.S. businesses may increasingly lag other nations in the global market.
Businesses are not just a network of technological tools; they are complex social systems. Managers must still rely on individuals to make things happen and seek a balance between human and technological resources. Ultimately, they can’t ignore considering the human capital that they’ll need to have in place in five years and beyond. Simply put, they should take a long-term planning perspective and recognize that it’s short-sighted to buy lots of shiny new technology and forget about the people who make any organization truly great. Entry-level tasks may be easily replicable and cheaper with AI—but entry-level employees don’t stay entry-level forever, and what they learn in those first few years on the job is vital to organizations’ long-term success.
Patrick E. Hopkins is Dean at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University, the James R. Hodge Chair of Excellence, and Professor of Accounting. He has won numerous teaching awards and is known for his influential research, earning the American Accounting Association’s prestigious Wildman Medal and the Distinguished Contribution to the Accounting Literature Award. He served on the Financial Accounting Standards Board’s Financial Accounting Standards Advisory Council and is past editor of The Accounting Review.
The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.