
“七大科技巨頭”過強,導致被動型投資者一向青睞的指數基金成了一個高風險的投資工具。
霍華德?西爾弗布拉特是一名已經退休的標普道瓊斯指數高級分析師。他近日指出,標普500指數作為美股風向標,雖然它去年的表現不像前幾年那樣高光,但仍實現了16.39%的漲幅,剔除通脹因素后仍高于10%的年平均回報率。
但凡事不能只看表現。標普500看似漲勢喜人,但它主要是靠幾家頭部公司拉動的,其中就包括所謂的“科技七巨頭”。過去幾年間,它們一直是美股上漲的核心動力。整個美股市場的增長引擎高度集中,這對指數基金而言無疑是壞消息。過去幾十年,指數基金憑借其安全性,一直是被動投資者的首選,但是現在它們的風險水平卻攀升到了一個高位。
換句話說,當市場的表現高度依賴少數幾只科技股時,指數基金便失去了分散投資的緩沖作用,其漲跌開始完全取決于這幾家頭部科技公司的表現。
在AI熱潮的推動下,“七巨頭”的市值合計已接近標普500指數的三分之一。加拿大皇家銀行的一份報告指出,在AI紅利的作用下,英偉達、谷歌母公司Alphabet、微軟、Meta等“七巨頭”,貢獻了去年標普500指數一半以上的漲幅。
2026年開年以來,“七巨頭”的表現參差不齊,行情上漲的只有亞馬遜、Alphabet和Meta。截至2月4日,亞馬遜年內漲幅為3.38%,Alphabet達到8.5%,Meta為4.79%。
傳統觀念一般認為,指數基金因為分散了投資,所以一般會比較安全。但隨著市場高度集中化,這種固有認知正在被打破?,F在,先鋒領航、富達投資等一些全球頭部的資管公司都向投資者發布了預警,指出指數基金已經出現了“非分散化”風險。
比如先鋒領航旗下跟蹤標普500指數的全市場基金VFIAX的招股書顯示,受市場高度集中化的影響,該基金在某些情況下可能會從法律層面被認定為一支“非分散化”的基金。
不過THG證券咨詢公司的聯合創始人扎克?萊文尼克認為,這種情況本質上是由于市場格局發生了改變,而非指數基金本身出現了問題。
他在接受《財富》采訪時稱:“當前股市的集中度處于長期以來的高位,這意味著市場很可能會被幾家頭部企業的權重所扭曲?!?/p>
如何評估指數基金的風險
對于被動投資者而言,指數基金仍是一個相對安全的選擇。但是在現代金融史上,像這樣高集中度的市場確實是罕見的。當然,過去幾年,美股市場連續實現兩位數的增長,與這種高集中度也不無關系。但是就在三年前的2022年,美股一度遭遇重挫,標普500指數當年下跌了19.4%,釀成2008年以來最嚴重的一次股災。
投資顧問機構約翰遜投資顧問公司(Johnson Investment Counsel)的資產管理團隊首席投資官查爾斯?萊因哈特對《財富》表示,現在任何利空消息都有可能導致股市快速下跌,因為“現在的頭部股票不僅市值更大,波動率更高,彼此間的聯動性也更強”。
盡管在極端情況下,幾乎所有投資資產都難以獨善其身,但是投資者當下仍可采取一些行動,避免過度暴露于高風險投資中。
比如萊文尼克建議,為了規避額外風險,防止投資受損,投資者不妨看看那些高估值的科技和AI概念股以外的板塊。當然投資者也可以繼續投資科技板塊,但也應拓寬投資視野,關注一下那些雖然規模較小,但具備穩健商業模式的企業。
他表示:“當下正是調整投資組合的好時機,投資者可以考慮一些估值相對合理、規模也并不是很大的企業。調整投資組織的時機,必須是在壞事發生前?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W)
譯者:樸成奎
“七大科技巨頭”過強,導致被動型投資者一向青睞的指數基金成了一個高風險的投資工具。
霍華德?西爾弗布拉特是一名已經退休的標普道瓊斯指數高級分析師。他近日指出,標普500指數作為美股風向標,雖然它去年的表現不像前幾年那樣高光,但仍實現了16.39%的漲幅,剔除通脹因素后仍高于10%的年平均回報率。
但凡事不能只看表現。標普500看似漲勢喜人,但它主要是靠幾家頭部公司拉動的,其中就包括所謂的“科技七巨頭”。過去幾年間,它們一直是美股上漲的核心動力。整個美股市場的增長引擎高度集中,這對指數基金而言無疑是壞消息。過去幾十年,指數基金憑借其安全性,一直是被動投資者的首選,但是現在它們的風險水平卻攀升到了一個高位。
換句話說,當市場的表現高度依賴少數幾只科技股時,指數基金便失去了分散投資的緩沖作用,其漲跌開始完全取決于這幾家頭部科技公司的表現。
在AI熱潮的推動下,“七巨頭”的市值合計已接近標普500指數的三分之一。加拿大皇家銀行的一份報告指出,在AI紅利的作用下,英偉達、谷歌母公司Alphabet、微軟、Meta等“七巨頭”,貢獻了去年標普500指數一半以上的漲幅。
2026年開年以來,“七巨頭”的表現參差不齊,行情上漲的只有亞馬遜、Alphabet和Meta。截至2月4日,亞馬遜年內漲幅為3.38%,Alphabet達到8.5%,Meta為4.79%。
傳統觀念一般認為,指數基金因為分散了投資,所以一般會比較安全。但隨著市場高度集中化,這種固有認知正在被打破?,F在,先鋒領航、富達投資等一些全球頭部的資管公司都向投資者發布了預警,指出指數基金已經出現了“非分散化”風險。
比如先鋒領航旗下跟蹤標普500指數的全市場基金VFIAX的招股書顯示,受市場高度集中化的影響,該基金在某些情況下可能會從法律層面被認定為一支“非分散化”的基金。
不過THG證券咨詢公司的聯合創始人扎克?萊文尼克認為,這種情況本質上是由于市場格局發生了改變,而非指數基金本身出現了問題。
他在接受《財富》采訪時稱:“當前股市的集中度處于長期以來的高位,這意味著市場很可能會被幾家頭部企業的權重所扭曲?!?/p>
如何評估指數基金的風險
對于被動投資者而言,指數基金仍是一個相對安全的選擇。但是在現代金融史上,像這樣高集中度的市場確實是罕見的。當然,過去幾年,美股市場連續實現兩位數的增長,與這種高集中度也不無關系。但是就在三年前的2022年,美股一度遭遇重挫,標普500指數當年下跌了19.4%,釀成2008年以來最嚴重的一次股災。
投資顧問機構約翰遜投資顧問公司(Johnson Investment Counsel)的資產管理團隊首席投資官查爾斯?萊因哈特對《財富》表示,現在任何利空消息都有可能導致股市快速下跌,因為“現在的頭部股票不僅市值更大,波動率更高,彼此間的聯動性也更強”。
盡管在極端情況下,幾乎所有投資資產都難以獨善其身,但是投資者當下仍可采取一些行動,避免過度暴露于高風險投資中。
比如萊文尼克建議,為了規避額外風險,防止投資受損,投資者不妨看看那些高估值的科技和AI概念股以外的板塊。當然投資者也可以繼續投資科技板塊,但也應拓寬投資視野,關注一下那些雖然規模較小,但具備穩健商業模式的企業。
他表示:“當下正是調整投資組合的好時機,投資者可以考慮一些估值相對合理、規模也并不是很大的企業。調整投資組織的時機,必須是在壞事發生前。”(財富中文網)
譯者:樸成奎
The giant tech stocks that constitute the Magnificent Seven are making index funds, passive investors’ favorite safe investing tool, riskier.
While not as high as previous stellar years, the S&P 500, which tracks the broader market, still recorded a double-digit gain last year of 16.39%, several percentage points higher than the index’s 10% average annual return, not accounting for inflation, according to now-retired senior index analyst for S&P Dow Jones Indices, Howard Silverblatt.
But underneath the surface, the market’s respectable growth has been fueled by just a handful of companies, including several that make up the so-called Magnificent Seven, a group of high-performing, tech-related companies that have driven a large amount of stock market growth over the past several years. This large concentration in the broader market is bad news for index funds, which have for decades attracted passive investors for being among the safest bets in investing, but are now looking riskier than they have in years past.
In other words, when a few megacap stocks do all the heavy lifting, index funds lose their value as a diversified cushion, instead rising and falling based on Big Tech’s fortunes.
Partly fueled by the AI frenzy, the Magnificent Seven have grown to account for about a third of the S&P 500. And thanks in part to these AI-fueled gains, only seven stocks, including Nvidia, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms, represented just over half of the S&P 500’s annual gains last year, according to a note by RBC Bank.
To be sure, the Magnificent Seven have had a mixed start to 2026, with only Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta recording a gain so far this year. Amazon was up 3.38%, Alphabet was up 8.5%, and Meta was up 4.79% year to date as of Wednesday.
While index funds have traditionally been viewed as diversified investments, increasing market concentration is changing this assumption. Already some of the world’s biggest investment management companies, including Vanguard and Fidelity, have made changes to their disclosures to warn investors of “non-diversification” risk.
According to the prospectus of Vanguard’s broad market fund, VFIAX, which tracks the S&P 500, the fund could at some point become technically “nondiversified” under the law that governs investment funds because of how concentrated the market is.
But, it’s the market that has changed, not the funds themselves, said Zach Levenick, cofounder of THG Securities Advisors.
“Concentration [in the stock market] is high, higher than it’s been for a long time,” he told Fortune. “And that means things in markets are potentially distorted by the weights of the very highest companies.”
How to weigh index fund risk
While index funds are still a relatively safe investment for passive investors, there have been very few periods in modern financial history in which so few companies accounted for such a large amount of market value. As stocks have gone up over the past several years, this trend has meant back-to-back double-digit stock market gains and overall growth. Yet only three years ago in 2022, stocks tanked and the S&P 500 ended the year down 19.4%, its worst annual drop since 2008.
Any bad news weighing down the market could also bring prices down quickly, because “today’s largest stocks are not only bigger, they’re also more volatile and more correlated with each other,” Charles Rinehart, chief investment officer of the asset management team at registered investment advisor Johnson Investment Counsel, told Fortune.
While in the worst of cases nearly all portfolios may be inevitably affected, investors can act now to avoid being too overexposed to risky investments.
To avoid any extra risk or the possibility of a hit to your portfolio, Levenick said he recommends looking for value outside of the potentially overpriced tech behemoths and AI plays currently making waves. While investors can still keep their investments in tech, they may want to broaden their horizons by seeking out smaller companies with a dependable business.
“This is the time to be adjusting your portfolio to favor some stuff that maybe isn’t so expensively valued or isn’t very, very large in size,” he said. “The time to adjust your portfolio is before the bad stuff starts happening.”