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          45年來美國中產(chǎn)階級(jí)持續(xù)衰落,普通人每年少賺1.2萬美元

          Jake Angelo
          2026-02-14

          勞動(dòng)者從經(jīng)濟(jì)蛋糕中分得的份額越來越小

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          街道兩旁林立著兩層獨(dú)棟住宅。圖片來源:KEVIN CARTER—GETTY IMAGES

          盡管2月11日公布的就業(yè)報(bào)告比預(yù)期好,但21世紀(jì)面臨著更嚴(yán)峻也更不容忽視的事實(shí),即勞動(dòng)者從經(jīng)濟(jì)蛋糕中分得的份額越來越小。事實(shí)上,這一趨勢已持續(xù)加速近50年。

          《華爾街日報(bào)》(The Wall Street Journal)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)論員格雷格·伊普指出,根據(jù)美國商務(wù)部數(shù)據(jù),2025年三季度國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值中員工工資和福利的占比降至51.4%,低于1980年的58%。同一時(shí)期,企業(yè)利潤,或者說用于企業(yè)擴(kuò)張或支付所有者的剩余現(xiàn)金占比則從6%一路上升到近12%。

          美國新聞網(wǎng)站Axios分析相關(guān)數(shù)字后得出,工資占比下降的部分折合為1.2萬美元,也就是說普通美國人每年少賺了這么多錢。美國勞動(dòng)者每年因此損失的薪酬總計(jì)約2萬億美元。這意味著,如果沒有損失,年收入中位數(shù)本可以提升近20%。

          “這毫無疑問加劇了貧富差距,也導(dǎo)致收入中位數(shù)長期停滯,”喬治城大學(xué)(Georgetown University)勞動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家哈里·J·霍爾澤告訴《財(cái)富》。

          他認(rèn)為,這一轉(zhuǎn)變主要因?yàn)閯趧?dòng)者話語權(quán)的削弱。“自動(dòng)化和全球化共同作用下,資本所有者獲益遠(yuǎn)多于勞動(dòng)者,同時(shí)集體談判之類能縮小差距的制度則不斷衰落。”

          其實(shí)不用看格雷格·伊普、Axios或《財(cái)富》的分析,就連美國政府也承認(rèn)中產(chǎn)階級(jí)結(jié)構(gòu)已發(fā)生變化。

          長期趨勢

          美國國會(huì)預(yù)算辦公室近期發(fā)布報(bào)告,揭示了高收入群體與中產(chǎn)階級(jí)之間日益擴(kuò)大的收入鴻溝。1979年至2022年間,扣除轉(zhuǎn)移支付和稅收后,最富有的1%家庭所占經(jīng)濟(jì)份額從7%翻倍至14%。另一方面,處于中間三檔的家庭,即年收入在63,000至121,000美元之間的家庭在轉(zhuǎn)移支付和稅收后收入份額下降了6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

          如果聚焦超級(jí)富豪,差距更為觸目驚心。1979年以來,收入最高的五分之一人群,即年收入超過30.7萬美元的美國人收入增長了一倍多,而頂層0.01%人群的收入增長了七倍以上。誠然,美國整體在結(jié)構(gòu)上更加富裕,但伴隨而來的是,財(cái)富頂層群體攫取了大部分增長紅利。

          國會(huì)預(yù)算辦公室的報(bào)告發(fā)現(xiàn),市場收入特別是資本收益是導(dǎo)致差距擴(kuò)大的主要推手。自動(dòng)化趨勢也在加劇鴻溝。麻省理工學(xué)院2022年的一項(xiàng)研究發(fā)現(xiàn),1980年以來,自動(dòng)化一直是收入不平等的主要原因,其中低學(xué)歷勞動(dòng)者受沖擊最大。不過該研究發(fā)布于人工智能爆發(fā)之前,預(yù)計(jì)人工智能只會(huì)進(jìn)一步拉大企業(yè)利潤與勞動(dòng)者薪資福利的差距。

          人工智能發(fā)展對崗位的替代將涉及各教育層次。Anthropic首席執(zhí)行官達(dá)里奧·阿莫迪認(rèn)為,未來五年內(nèi)人工智能可能淘汰一半的入門級(jí)白領(lǐng)工作,將失業(yè)率推高至20%。大學(xué)畢業(yè)生正面臨多年來最艱難的就業(yè)市場,部分原因就在于入門級(jí)工作自動(dòng)化。

          “如果完全交給市場,人工智能可能會(huì)極大節(jié)省勞動(dòng)力,但對勞動(dòng)者來說未必是好事,”霍爾澤說。

          再就業(yè)服務(wù)公司Challenger, Gray and Christmas的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,僅去年一年約有5.5萬個(gè)裁員崗位與人工智能發(fā)展有關(guān)。其中很多裁員發(fā)生在科技行業(yè)。微軟裁減了9,000個(gè)工作崗位,理由是人工智能導(dǎo)致戰(zhàn)略調(diào)整。Salesforce在推進(jìn)人工智能應(yīng)用的過程中裁減了4,000個(gè)客服崗位。

          最近微軟發(fā)布了一份最容易受到人工智能影響的40種職業(yè)清單,其中指出筆譯、銷售代表、歷史學(xué)家和作家最容易受生成式人工智能影響。

          為避免人工智能自動(dòng)化引發(fā)災(zāi)難性的失業(yè)浪潮,霍爾澤建議政府提供監(jiān)管保障和激勵(lì)措施,確保人工智能建設(shè)以人為本。“通過研究撥款等途經(jīng),政府可嘗試獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)更偏向勞動(dòng)增強(qiáng)或以人為本的人工智能技術(shù),”霍爾澤說。

          “我認(rèn)為在人工智能時(shí)代,思考當(dāng)前趨勢如何發(fā)展以及能采取什么措施,是非常理智之舉,而且至關(guān)重要。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

          譯者:梁宇

          審校:夏林

          盡管2月11日公布的就業(yè)報(bào)告比預(yù)期好,但21世紀(jì)面臨著更嚴(yán)峻也更不容忽視的事實(shí),即勞動(dòng)者從經(jīng)濟(jì)蛋糕中分得的份額越來越小。事實(shí)上,這一趨勢已持續(xù)加速近50年。

          《華爾街日報(bào)》(The Wall Street Journal)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)論員格雷格·伊普指出,根據(jù)美國商務(wù)部數(shù)據(jù),2025年三季度國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值中員工工資和福利的占比降至51.4%,低于1980年的58%。同一時(shí)期,企業(yè)利潤,或者說用于企業(yè)擴(kuò)張或支付所有者的剩余現(xiàn)金占比則從6%一路上升到近12%。

          美國新聞網(wǎng)站Axios分析相關(guān)數(shù)字后得出,工資占比下降的部分折合為1.2萬美元,也就是說普通美國人每年少賺了這么多錢。美國勞動(dòng)者每年因此損失的薪酬總計(jì)約2萬億美元。這意味著,如果沒有損失,年收入中位數(shù)本可以提升近20%。

          “這毫無疑問加劇了貧富差距,也導(dǎo)致收入中位數(shù)長期停滯,”喬治城大學(xué)(Georgetown University)勞動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家哈里·J·霍爾澤告訴《財(cái)富》。

          他認(rèn)為,這一轉(zhuǎn)變主要因?yàn)閯趧?dòng)者話語權(quán)的削弱。“自動(dòng)化和全球化共同作用下,資本所有者獲益遠(yuǎn)多于勞動(dòng)者,同時(shí)集體談判之類能縮小差距的制度則不斷衰落。”

          其實(shí)不用看格雷格·伊普、Axios或《財(cái)富》的分析,就連美國政府也承認(rèn)中產(chǎn)階級(jí)結(jié)構(gòu)已發(fā)生變化。

          長期趨勢

          美國國會(huì)預(yù)算辦公室近期發(fā)布報(bào)告,揭示了高收入群體與中產(chǎn)階級(jí)之間日益擴(kuò)大的收入鴻溝。1979年至2022年間,扣除轉(zhuǎn)移支付和稅收后,最富有的1%家庭所占經(jīng)濟(jì)份額從7%翻倍至14%。另一方面,處于中間三檔的家庭,即年收入在63,000至121,000美元之間的家庭在轉(zhuǎn)移支付和稅收后收入份額下降了6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

          如果聚焦超級(jí)富豪,差距更為觸目驚心。1979年以來,收入最高的五分之一人群,即年收入超過30.7萬美元的美國人收入增長了一倍多,而頂層0.01%人群的收入增長了七倍以上。誠然,美國整體在結(jié)構(gòu)上更加富裕,但伴隨而來的是,財(cái)富頂層群體攫取了大部分增長紅利。

          國會(huì)預(yù)算辦公室的報(bào)告發(fā)現(xiàn),市場收入特別是資本收益是導(dǎo)致差距擴(kuò)大的主要推手。自動(dòng)化趨勢也在加劇鴻溝。麻省理工學(xué)院2022年的一項(xiàng)研究發(fā)現(xiàn),1980年以來,自動(dòng)化一直是收入不平等的主要原因,其中低學(xué)歷勞動(dòng)者受沖擊最大。不過該研究發(fā)布于人工智能爆發(fā)之前,預(yù)計(jì)人工智能只會(huì)進(jìn)一步拉大企業(yè)利潤與勞動(dòng)者薪資福利的差距。

          人工智能發(fā)展對崗位的替代將涉及各教育層次。Anthropic首席執(zhí)行官達(dá)里奧·阿莫迪認(rèn)為,未來五年內(nèi)人工智能可能淘汰一半的入門級(jí)白領(lǐng)工作,將失業(yè)率推高至20%。大學(xué)畢業(yè)生正面臨多年來最艱難的就業(yè)市場,部分原因就在于入門級(jí)工作自動(dòng)化。

          “如果完全交給市場,人工智能可能會(huì)極大節(jié)省勞動(dòng)力,但對勞動(dòng)者來說未必是好事,”霍爾澤說。

          再就業(yè)服務(wù)公司Challenger, Gray and Christmas的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,僅去年一年約有5.5萬個(gè)裁員崗位與人工智能發(fā)展有關(guān)。其中很多裁員發(fā)生在科技行業(yè)。微軟裁減了9,000個(gè)工作崗位,理由是人工智能導(dǎo)致戰(zhàn)略調(diào)整。Salesforce在推進(jìn)人工智能應(yīng)用的過程中裁減了4,000個(gè)客服崗位。

          最近微軟發(fā)布了一份最容易受到人工智能影響的40種職業(yè)清單,其中指出筆譯、銷售代表、歷史學(xué)家和作家最容易受生成式人工智能影響。

          為避免人工智能自動(dòng)化引發(fā)災(zāi)難性的失業(yè)浪潮,霍爾澤建議政府提供監(jiān)管保障和激勵(lì)措施,確保人工智能建設(shè)以人為本。“通過研究撥款等途經(jīng),政府可嘗試獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)更偏向勞動(dòng)增強(qiáng)或以人為本的人工智能技術(shù),”霍爾澤說。

          “我認(rèn)為在人工智能時(shí)代,思考當(dāng)前趨勢如何發(fā)展以及能采取什么措施,是非常理智之舉,而且至關(guān)重要。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

          譯者:梁宇

          審校:夏林

          Despite a better-than-expected jobs report Wednesday, there’s a wider, inconvenient fact about life in the 21st century: labor takes home an ever smaller share of the economic pie. The pattern has been accelerating for nearly 50 years, in fact.

          In the third quarter of 2025, the share of gross domestic income going to employees’ wages and benefits fell to 51.4%, down from 58% in 1980, according to U.S. Commerce Department data, as noted by The Wall Street Journal’s chief economics commentator, Greg Ip. Over the same period, corporate profits, or the leftover cash used to grow a business or pay owners, have been on the rise, reaching nearly 12% of the share of gross domestic income in the third quarter, up from 6%.

          Axios ran these numbers, and calculated the decline in wages as a share of gross domestic income adding up to $12,000; as in, that’s how much less per year the average American is bringing home as a result of this dynamic. It totals some $2 trillion in annual compensation for working Americans. That would mean a nearly 20% pay boost in the annual median income.

          “There’s no question that contributed to inequality and kind of the stagnation of median earnings,” Harry J. Holzer, a labor economist at Georgetown University, told Fortune.

          He attributes part of this shift to the weakening of worker political power. “[It’s a] combination of automation and globalization benefiting the owners of capital more than workers and the decline in these sort of equalizing institutions like collective bargaining.”

          But you don’t have to listen to Greg Ip, Axios or Fortune: the government itself is admitting that something has changed in the composition of the middle class.

          A long-term pattern

          A recent report released by the Congressional Budget Office reveals the extent of the growing income divide between the country’s top earners and the middle class. Between 1979 and 2022, the top 1% of households doubled their slice of the economic pie from 7% in 1979 to 14% in 2022, even after accounting for transfers and taxes. On the other hand, the share of income among the “middle three” income quintiles—households earning between $63,000 and $121,000 per year—decreased six percentage points after transfers and taxes.

          If you zoom in, the disparity among the ultrawealthy paints a starker picture. While income for the highest quintile of earners, those making more than $307,000, more than doubled since 1979, the income for the top 0.01% of earners grew more than sevenfold. Sure, the country overall grew structurally wealthier, but this came with a marked increase in the wealthiest taking the lion’s share of the benefits.

          The CBO report found that market income, specifically capital gains, is the main driver of the divergence. However, automation is also widening the divide. A 2022 MIT study found that automation has been the main culprit driving income inequality since 1980, with automation replacing mostly less-educated workers. Yet that study was released before the advent of AI, which is only expected to exacerbate the divide between corporate profit and labor wages and benefits.

          AI development is expected to replace workers regardless of education level. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei thinks AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs, and spike unemployment to up to 20% within the next five years. And college grads are entering the toughest job market in years, thanks in part to entry-level job automation.

          “If we leave it to the markets, AI might really be this hugely labor-saving technology that may not be very good for workers,” Holzer said.

          Last year alone, about 55,000 job cuts were tied to AI development, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas. Many of those layoffs occurred in the tech industry. Microsoft slashed 9,000 jobs, citing changing strategy due to AI. And Salesforce cut 4,000 customer service jobs in an AI push.

          Microsoft recently released a list of the 40 jobs most vulnerable to AI, with translators, sales reps, historians, and writers deemed some of the most affected occupations by generative AI.

          To prevent a cataclysmic wave of unemployment from AI automation, Holzer suggests the government provide guardrails and incentives for tech companies to ensure AI buildout is human-first. “Government support through research grants and things like that could try to reward a more labor-augmenting or human-centered kind of AI,” Holzer said.

          “I think it’s very sensible in an AI age to be thinking about how this might continue and what we might do about it. I think that’s essential.”

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