
美國國會預算辦公室(Congressional Budget Office,CBO)最新發(fā)布的一份綜合性報告,描繪了過去40多年美國經濟的深刻轉變:頂級富裕家庭顯著擴大了其經濟版圖,而中產階級則在持續(xù)失勢。
報告所涵蓋的數據跨度為1979年至2022年。數據顯示,國民收入分配明顯向社會最頂端傾斜。報告指出,收入前1%的家庭在轉移支付和稅收之前所占的收入份額,已從1979年的9%上升至2022年的18%,幾乎相當于將其在經濟“蛋糕”中的份額擴大了一倍。

中產階級空心化
在頂層繁榮的同時,經濟階梯上的其他群體卻難以維持原有地位。國會預算辦公室發(fā)現,收入前1%群體的市場收入占比擴大,而收入后20%群體的占比從5%降至4%,這意味著大部分壓力集中在中間階層。
即便將社會保障體系和稅制的穩(wěn)定作用考慮在內,中產階級的相對地位仍在下降。在這43年里,“中間60%”群體在轉移支付和稅收之后的收入占比下降了6個百分點。而收入前1%群體在稅后收入中的占比則從7%翻了一番,升至14%。
收入增長差距在超級富豪群體中更為明顯。自1979年以來,盡管各群體的平均收入都有所增長,但頂層的收入增長幅度無可匹敵:收入前20%群體的收入增長了一倍以上;而在收入最高的0.01%人群中,稅收和轉移支付后的平均收入更是增長了七倍以上。
導致收入不平等的因素
報告指出,市場收入,尤其是資本利得,是造成這種分化的主要原因。在收入分配頂層家庭的收入構成中,已實現資本利得占比更高,使他們在經濟繁榮時期財富激增。因此,自20世紀70年代末以來觀察到的收入不平等加劇,很大程度上正是由頂層群體的市場收入增長所推動。
聯邦政府試圖通過稅收與轉移支付體系來緩解這一不斷擴大的差距。國會預算辦公室指出,在過去四十年間,稅收和轉移支付在降低收入不平等方面的作用,實際上有所增強。然而,聯邦財政收入結構也隨著收入分配變化而發(fā)生了轉變。由于富裕階層如今在總收入中占據了巨大份額,他們也承擔了更大比例的全國稅負:2022年,收入前20%的家庭繳納了全部聯邦稅收的70%,而1979年這一比例僅為55%。
賓夕法尼亞大學沃頓預算模型主任肯特·斯梅特斯近期在接受《財富》雜志采訪時表示,“很多人沒有意識到,美國的所得稅制度具有高度累進性”,是經合組織(OECD)國家中迄今為止最具累進性的稅制。他補充說,在這種累進稅制下,“要大幅增加財政收入其實非常困難”,因為富人已經承擔了極高比例的稅負。
國會預算辦公室還發(fā)現,在這43年里,美國最貧困群體對政府援助的依賴程度上升。在收入后20%的家庭中,醫(yī)療補助計劃(Medicaid)和兒童健康保險計劃(CHIP)福利的收入占比,已從1979年的9%增至2022年的48%。
疫情后的波動
國會預算辦公室的報告還描繪了新冠疫情之后的經濟波動。與2021年相比,2022年所有收入群體在轉移支付和稅收之后的平均收入均有所下降。
低收入家庭收入下滑主要源于疫情時期的臨時性政策到期,例如擴大的兒童稅收抵免和紓困退稅抵免。對高收入群體來說,2022年收入下滑則是由于已實現資本利得從2021年的歷史高位大幅下降所致。
盡管2022年出現了短暫波動,但長期趨勢依然清晰。衡量收入不平等的標準指標基尼系數顯示,當今美國的貧富差距較1979年顯著擴大。
《財富》雜志使用生成式AI作為本文的研究工具。編輯在發(fā)表前已核實信息的準確性。(財富中文網)
譯者:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
美國國會預算辦公室(Congressional Budget Office,CBO)最新發(fā)布的一份綜合性報告,描繪了過去40多年美國經濟的深刻轉變:頂級富裕家庭顯著擴大了其經濟版圖,而中產階級則在持續(xù)失勢。
報告所涵蓋的數據跨度為1979年至2022年。數據顯示,國民收入分配明顯向社會最頂端傾斜。報告指出,收入前1%的家庭在轉移支付和稅收之前所占的收入份額,已從1979年的9%上升至2022年的18%,幾乎相當于將其在經濟“蛋糕”中的份額擴大了一倍。
中產階級空心化
在頂層繁榮的同時,經濟階梯上的其他群體卻難以維持原有地位。國會預算辦公室發(fā)現,收入前1%群體的市場收入占比擴大,而收入后20%群體的占比從5%降至4%,這意味著大部分壓力集中在中間階層。
即便將社會保障體系和稅制的穩(wěn)定作用考慮在內,中產階級的相對地位仍在下降。在這43年里,“中間60%”群體在轉移支付和稅收之后的收入占比下降了6個百分點。而收入前1%群體在稅后收入中的占比則從7%翻了一番,升至14%。
收入增長差距在超級富豪群體中更為明顯。自1979年以來,盡管各群體的平均收入都有所增長,但頂層的收入增長幅度無可匹敵:收入前20%群體的收入增長了一倍以上;而在收入最高的0.01%人群中,稅收和轉移支付后的平均收入更是增長了七倍以上。
導致收入不平等的因素
報告指出,市場收入,尤其是資本利得,是造成這種分化的主要原因。在收入分配頂層家庭的收入構成中,已實現資本利得占比更高,使他們在經濟繁榮時期財富激增。因此,自20世紀70年代末以來觀察到的收入不平等加劇,很大程度上正是由頂層群體的市場收入增長所推動。
聯邦政府試圖通過稅收與轉移支付體系來緩解這一不斷擴大的差距。國會預算辦公室指出,在過去四十年間,稅收和轉移支付在降低收入不平等方面的作用,實際上有所增強。然而,聯邦財政收入結構也隨著收入分配變化而發(fā)生了轉變。由于富裕階層如今在總收入中占據了巨大份額,他們也承擔了更大比例的全國稅負:2022年,收入前20%的家庭繳納了全部聯邦稅收的70%,而1979年這一比例僅為55%。
賓夕法尼亞大學沃頓預算模型主任肯特·斯梅特斯近期在接受《財富》雜志采訪時表示,“很多人沒有意識到,美國的所得稅制度具有高度累進性”,是經合組織(OECD)國家中迄今為止最具累進性的稅制。他補充說,在這種累進稅制下,“要大幅增加財政收入其實非常困難”,因為富人已經承擔了極高比例的稅負。
國會預算辦公室還發(fā)現,在這43年里,美國最貧困群體對政府援助的依賴程度上升。在收入后20%的家庭中,醫(yī)療補助計劃(Medicaid)和兒童健康保險計劃(CHIP)福利的收入占比,已從1979年的9%增至2022年的48%。
疫情后的波動
國會預算辦公室的報告還描繪了新冠疫情之后的經濟波動。與2021年相比,2022年所有收入群體在轉移支付和稅收之后的平均收入均有所下降。
低收入家庭收入下滑主要源于疫情時期的臨時性政策到期,例如擴大的兒童稅收抵免和紓困退稅抵免。對高收入群體來說,2022年收入下滑則是由于已實現資本利得從2021年的歷史高位大幅下降所致。
盡管2022年出現了短暫波動,但長期趨勢依然清晰。衡量收入不平等的標準指標基尼系數顯示,當今美國的貧富差距較1979年顯著擴大。
《財富》雜志使用生成式AI作為本文的研究工具。編輯在發(fā)表前已核實信息的準確性。(財富中文網)
譯者:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
A comprehensive new report released by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) portrays a stark transformation of the American economy over the last four decades, revealing a deepening divide where the wealthiest households have dramatically expanded their economic footprint while the middle class has steadily lost ground.
According to the data, which spans from 1979 through 2022, the distribution of national income has skewed heavily toward the very top. The report reveals the top 1% of households grew their share of income before transfers and taxes from 9% in 1979 to 18% in 2022, effectively doubling their slice of the economic pie.
A hollowing out of the middle
While the top tier prospered, the rest of the economic ladder struggled to maintain its standing. The CBO found as the top 1% seized a larger portion of market income, the share going to the lowest quintile dropped from 5% to 4%. This means most of the compression occurred in the middle.
Even after accounting for the stabilizing effects of the safety net and the tax code, the middle class has seen its relative status diminish. The share of income after transfers and taxes held by the “middle three” income quintiles decreased by 6 percentage points over the 43-year period. Conversely, the share of after-tax income going to the top 1% doubled from 7% to 14%.
The disparity in growth rates is even more pronounced when looking at the ultrawealthy. While average income grew for all groups since 1979, the acceleration at the summit was unmatched. Income for the highest quintile more than doubled, and for the top 0.01% of earners, average income after taxes and transfers grew more than sevenfold.
Drivers of inequality
The report identifies market income—specifically capital gains—as a primary engine of this divergence. Realized capital gains constitute a much larger portion of income for households at the top of the distribution, leading to massive financial surges during boom years. Consequently, increases in market income at the top drove much of the overall rise in income inequality observed since the late 1970s.
The federal government has attempted to mitigate this widening gap through the tax and transfer system. The CBO notes the degree to which taxes and transfers reduce inequality has actually increased over the past four decades. However, the structure of federal revenue has shifted along with the income. Because the wealthy now command such a massive share of total earnings, they also pay a larger portion of the national tax bill; the top quintile paid 70% of all federal taxes in 2022, up from 55% in 1979.
As Penn Wharton Budget Model Director Kent Smetters recently told Fortune, “What people don’t realize is just how progressive the United States income tax system is,” by far the most progressive in the OECD. With such a progressive tax system, he added, “it’s really hard to raise a lot of revenue,” because the wealthy are paying such a disproportionate share.
The CBO found over this 43-year period, the reliance on government assistance has grown for the poorest Americans. For the lowest income quintile, Medicaid and CHIP benefits ballooned from representing just 9% of their income in 1979 to 48% in 2022.
Post-pandemic volatility
The CBO also provided a snapshot of the volatile economy immediately following the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2022, average income after transfers and taxes actually fell for all income groups compared to the prior year.
For lower-income households, this decline was driven by the expiration of temporary pandemic-era policies, such as the expanded child tax credit and recovery rebate credits. For the wealthy, the 2022 dip was the result of a sharp decline in realized capital gains from a record high in 2021.
Despite the temporary fluctuation in 2022, the long-term trend remains clear. The Gini coefficient, a standard measure of income inequality, shows the gap between the rich and the rest of the country is significantly wider today than it was in 1979.
For this story, Fortune journalists used generative AI as a research tool. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.