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          頂級經濟學家警告:企業利潤與勞動者薪酬差距創歷史紀錄

          Jason Ma
          2026-03-08

          在資本與勞動的博弈中,勞動者的處境已大幅落后,這引發了人們對經濟與社會賴以運行的信任基礎的嚴重擔憂。

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          圖片來源:Getty Images

          在資本與勞動的博弈中,勞動者的處境已大幅落后,這引發了人們對經濟與社會賴以運行的信任基礎的嚴重擔憂。

          畢馬威(KPMG)首席經濟學家兼董事總經理黛安·斯旺克(Diane Swonk)在最新報告中,重點指出企業利潤與勞動者收入之間令人不安的差距。

          報告顯示,企業利潤占美國國內生產總值(GDP)的比重已從1982年的8%飆升至15.85%,而員工薪酬占GDP的比重則從1982年的66.6%驟降至61.9%。

          盡管勞動力在經濟中所占份額也曾低于當前水平,但整體呈下行態勢,且與企業利潤之間的差距已創下二戰以來的最高紀錄。

          斯旺克上周在社交媒體發文稱:"我在近期發布的《經濟指南針》報告中展示的這張圖表,至今仍讓我深感不安。有朋友將其稱作‘革命圖表’,雖令人不安,卻直指核心。不平等現象會進一步加劇社會與經濟的動蕩。"

          她補充道,這種差異有助于解釋紙面上的經濟表現與大多數美國人的實際感受之間的落差。

          事實上,盡管整體數據顯示通脹有所降溫、收入穩步增長、消費支出保持韌性,但細分數據卻暴露出嚴重的兩極分化。例如,自疫情爆發以來,最富有的20%家庭幾乎貢獻了美國全部消費增長,而底層80%的家庭僅能勉強跟上通脹步伐。

          如今美國民眾正面臨可負擔性危機,食品、電力、保險、醫療保健、托育及住房等基本生活開支全面上漲。

          斯旺克警告稱:“這反映出數十年來信任的逐漸崩塌,一股背叛的暗流正在涌動。我們的經濟敘事已然出現裂痕?!?/p>

          她在報告中指出,這種信任缺失現象已在全球蔓延,且持續了數十年之久,過去一年在發展中經濟體表現得尤為突出。

          與此同時,生成式人工智能革命與特朗普總統的關稅政策加劇了民眾對就業安全的焦慮。

          斯旺克寫道:“在人工智能帶來的生產力提升尚未顯現之際,首席執行官們就已將人工智能列為凍結招聘和裁員的理由。這種做法可能因小失大,它激起公眾對人工智能愈發強烈的抵觸情緒?!?/p>

          誠然,仍有若干利好因素有望惠及勞動者和整體經濟:特朗普的減稅政策將帶來短期提振,世界杯賽事有望緩解旅游業的低迷態勢,通脹水平將持續穩步回落,大規模人工智能資本支出將持續支撐GDP增長。

          但她指出,另一方面,投資者情緒緊張,經濟政策走向仍充滿不確定性,房地產市場持續低迷。

          斯旺克總結道:“結果就是經濟看似韌性十足,實則愈發脆弱。經濟增長雖得以維持,但支撐勞動力市場、投資活動和全球合作的紐帶正在斷裂。勞動者愈發焦慮,投資者更趨盲從,而市場……比新聞頭條所暗示的更易受到沖擊?!?/p>

          她的這一警告,與諾貝爾經濟學獎得主達龍·阿西莫格魯(Daron Acemoglu)多年來關于經濟與政治衰退根源的論述不謀而合。

          在近期接受《財富》雜志記者杰克·安杰洛(Jake Angelo)采訪時,他表示美國正走向黯淡未來,并指出在人工智能發展方面需做出兩項關鍵轉變,以避免經濟進一步衰退:遏制經濟不平等,同時減少人工智能對就業崗位的沖擊。

          阿西莫格魯稱:“如果我們繼續沿著這條摧毀就業、加劇不平等的道路走下去,美國的民主制度將難以為繼。”(財富中文網)

          譯者:中慧言-王芳

          在資本與勞動的博弈中,勞動者的處境已大幅落后,這引發了人們對經濟與社會賴以運行的信任基礎的嚴重擔憂。

          畢馬威(KPMG)首席經濟學家兼董事總經理黛安·斯旺克(Diane Swonk)在最新報告中,重點指出企業利潤與勞動者收入之間令人不安的差距。

          報告顯示,企業利潤占美國國內生產總值(GDP)的比重已從1982年的8%飆升至15.85%,而員工薪酬占GDP的比重則從1982年的66.6%驟降至61.9%。

          盡管勞動力在經濟中所占份額也曾低于當前水平,但整體呈下行態勢,且與企業利潤之間的差距已創下二戰以來的最高紀錄。

          斯旺克上周在社交媒體發文稱:"我在近期發布的《經濟指南針》報告中展示的這張圖表,至今仍讓我深感不安。有朋友將其稱作‘革命圖表’,雖令人不安,卻直指核心。不平等現象會進一步加劇社會與經濟的動蕩。"

          她補充道,這種差異有助于解釋紙面上的經濟表現與大多數美國人的實際感受之間的落差。

          事實上,盡管整體數據顯示通脹有所降溫、收入穩步增長、消費支出保持韌性,但細分數據卻暴露出嚴重的兩極分化。例如,自疫情爆發以來,最富有的20%家庭幾乎貢獻了美國全部消費增長,而底層80%的家庭僅能勉強跟上通脹步伐。

          如今美國民眾正面臨可負擔性危機,食品、電力、保險、醫療保健、托育及住房等基本生活開支全面上漲。

          斯旺克警告稱:“這反映出數十年來信任的逐漸崩塌,一股背叛的暗流正在涌動。我們的經濟敘事已然出現裂痕?!?/p>

          她在報告中指出,這種信任缺失現象已在全球蔓延,且持續了數十年之久,過去一年在發展中經濟體表現得尤為突出。

          與此同時,生成式人工智能革命與特朗普總統的關稅政策加劇了民眾對就業安全的焦慮。

          斯旺克寫道:“在人工智能帶來的生產力提升尚未顯現之際,首席執行官們就已將人工智能列為凍結招聘和裁員的理由。這種做法可能因小失大,它激起公眾對人工智能愈發強烈的抵觸情緒?!?/p>

          誠然,仍有若干利好因素有望惠及勞動者和整體經濟:特朗普的減稅政策將帶來短期提振,世界杯賽事有望緩解旅游業的低迷態勢,通脹水平將持續穩步回落,大規模人工智能資本支出將持續支撐GDP增長。

          但她指出,另一方面,投資者情緒緊張,經濟政策走向仍充滿不確定性,房地產市場持續低迷。

          斯旺克總結道:“結果就是經濟看似韌性十足,實則愈發脆弱。經濟增長雖得以維持,但支撐勞動力市場、投資活動和全球合作的紐帶正在斷裂。勞動者愈發焦慮,投資者更趨盲從,而市場……比新聞頭條所暗示的更易受到沖擊?!?/p>

          她的這一警告,與諾貝爾經濟學獎得主達龍·阿西莫格魯(Daron Acemoglu)多年來關于經濟與政治衰退根源的論述不謀而合。

          在近期接受《財富》雜志記者杰克·安杰洛(Jake Angelo)采訪時,他表示美國正走向黯淡未來,并指出在人工智能發展方面需做出兩項關鍵轉變,以避免經濟進一步衰退:遏制經濟不平等,同時減少人工智能對就業崗位的沖擊。

          阿西莫格魯稱:“如果我們繼續沿著這條摧毀就業、加劇不平等的道路走下去,美國的民主制度將難以為繼?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W)

          譯者:中慧言-王芳

          Workers have been falling behind dramatically in the tug of war between capital and labor, stoking serious concern about the trust holding the economy and society together.

          Diane Swonk, chief economist and managing director at KPMG, highlighted troubling data on corporate versus workers’ earnings that were included in a report she recently authored.

          It showed corporate profits as a share of U.S. GDP have soared to 15.85% from 8% in 1982. By contrast, employee compensation as a share of GDP has tumbled to 61.9% from 66.6% in 1982.

          While labor’s slice of the economy has previously been lower than it is today, the overall trend line has pointed down, and the gap compared with corporate earnings is now at a post–World War II record high.

          “This chart from my recent Economic Compass still haunts me,” Swonk said in a social media post last week. “A friend refers to it as the ‘revolution chart,’ which [is] disturbing but telling. Inequality fuels social and economic instability.”

          She added the divergence helps explain how the economy looks on paper versus how it’s experienced by most Americans.

          Indeed, while aggregate data show cooler inflation, steady income gains, and resilient consumer spending, the details reveal a sharp divide. For example, the richest 20% of households account for nearly all U.S. spending growth since the pandemic, while the bottom 80% have merely kept up with inflation.

          Today, Americans grapple with an affordability crisis that has stretched across a range of basic expenses, including food, electricity, insurance, health care, childcare, and housing.

          “It gets to the multi-decade erosion in trust—there is an undercurrent of betrayal,” Swonk warned. “Something in our economic narrative is broken.”

          In her report, she explained this loss of trust extends globally and across multiple decades, but especially in developing economies over the past year.

          At the same time, the generative AI revolution and President Donald Trump’s tariffs have stirred more economic anxiety about job safety.

          “CEOs are citing AI as a reason for hiring freezes and layoffs, before the productivity associated with AI is realized,” Swonk wrote. “That could prove penny-wise and pound-foolish; it stokes public backlash to AI, which is intensifying.”

          To be sure, there are still some tailwinds that should benefit workers and the overall economy. Trump’s tax cuts will deliver a temporary lift; the World Cup will help ease a tourism downturn; inflation will continue to gradually cool; and massive AI capital expenditures will keep propping up GDP growth.

          On the other hand, investors are nervous; uncertainty still hangs over the direction of economic policy; and the housing market remains in the doldrums, she said.

          “The result is an economy that appears resilient but feels increasingly fragile,” Swonk concluded. “Growth has held up, yet the connective tissue that supports labor markets, investment, and global cooperation is fraying. Workers are more anxious, investors more herdlike, and markets … more vulnerable to shocks than headlines suggest.”

          Her warnings echo what Nobel Prize–winning economist Daron Acemoglu has been saying for years about the origins of economic and political decay.

          In a recent interview with Fortune’s Jake Angelo, he said the U.S. is headed for a grim future and outlined two shifts relative to AI development he sees as critical to avoiding deeper decline: cracking down on economic inequality and tempering job destruction.

          “If we go down this path of destroying jobs [and] creating more inequality, U.S. democracy is not going to survive,” Acemoglu said.

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