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          摩根士丹利稱人工智能經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來罕見的“再工業(yè)化復(fù)興”,但對(duì)計(jì)算機(jī)的好處遠(yuǎn)大于人類

          Nick Lichtenberg
          2026-03-09

          人工智能革命正在改寫美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的規(guī)則,但它并未帶來消費(fèi)繁榮的黃金時(shí)代,而是引發(fā)了一場(chǎng)規(guī)模巨大、資源密集的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)熱潮。

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          2026年2月18日,紐約證券交易所交易大廳內(nèi)的交易員。圖片來源:ANGELA WEISS—AFP/Getty Images

          人工智能革命正在改寫美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的規(guī)則,但它并未帶來消費(fèi)繁榮的黃金時(shí)代,而是引發(fā)了一場(chǎng)規(guī)模巨大、資源密集的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)熱潮。在這場(chǎng)熱潮中,普通勞動(dòng)者有可能被時(shí)代拋在身后。

          根據(jù)摩根士丹利財(cái)富管理公司最新發(fā)布的一份戰(zhàn)略報(bào)告,市場(chǎng)已進(jìn)入一個(gè)“由生成式人工智能資本支出驅(qū)動(dòng)”的時(shí)代,體現(xiàn)從消費(fèi)主導(dǎo)型增長(zhǎng)轉(zhuǎn)向投資主導(dǎo)型的“再工業(yè)化復(fù)興”。重要的是,這種變化這與以往的技術(shù)革命(如互聯(lián)網(wǎng)、個(gè)人電腦或移動(dòng)設(shè)備)都截然不同。

          摩根士丹利財(cái)富管理公司首席投資官麗莎·沙萊特表示,當(dāng)前的生成式人工智能浪潮“顯然還不是以消費(fèi)者為中心”。相反,這一過程深深扎根于物理世界,以支持龐大的計(jì)算需求。

          沙萊特的團(tuán)隊(duì)指出,與數(shù)據(jù)中心相關(guān)的投資在2025年已占年度GDP增長(zhǎng)的25%,并且正在以預(yù)測(cè)實(shí)際GDP增長(zhǎng)率數(shù)倍的速度擴(kuò)張。這種巨大的規(guī)模需要數(shù)萬億美元的投資,這些投資將波及實(shí)體市場(chǎng),直接影響房地產(chǎn)、建筑、電力以及工業(yè)金屬。該公司認(rèn)為,這種趨勢(shì)正在催生出一個(gè)長(zhǎng)達(dá)數(shù)年的建設(shè)期,在此期間,“在經(jīng)濟(jì)再平衡過程中,投資取代消費(fèi),成為增長(zhǎng)驅(qū)動(dòng)力”。

          對(duì)人類并非利好

          盡管這種基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)對(duì)工業(yè)指標(biāo)來說是個(gè)利好,對(duì)人類卻意味著黯淡的前景。摩根士丹利警告稱,生成式人工智能的普及將給“勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)帶來轉(zhuǎn)型風(fēng)險(xiǎn)”。

          該報(bào)告認(rèn)為美國消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)的前景終將歸于“平平淡淡”,并受到“情緒低落、就業(yè)焦慮、3.6%的低儲(chǔ)蓄率以及不斷上升的債務(wù)和信貸違約”等因素制約。此外,該公司預(yù)測(cè),由于就業(yè)市場(chǎng)低迷、人口老齡化和人口增長(zhǎng)緩慢,消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)可能會(huì)停滯,導(dǎo)致民眾陷入加劇不平等的"K型經(jīng)濟(jì)"之中,而不是V型或U型復(fù)蘇。

          有趣的是,這種新模式也迫使科技巨頭們面對(duì)嚴(yán)峻的現(xiàn)實(shí)。多年來,美國股指一直被“輕資產(chǎn)、經(jīng)常性收入的科技商業(yè)模式”所主導(dǎo),這些模式享受著近乎為零的邊際成本和不斷擴(kuò)大的利潤(rùn)率。然而,生成式人工智能革命從根本上就不同。它是一場(chǎng)"資金饑渴的研發(fā)軍備競(jìng)賽",其經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)核心是邊際成本。這意味著,隨著科技公司增加注冊(cè)用戶,它們必須為寶貴的"算力"能力投入巨額資金。

          因此,這些昔日的輕資產(chǎn)寵兒正在轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)椤百Y本密集型、現(xiàn)金饑渴的企業(yè)”。摩根士丹利直言不諱地指出,對(duì)于這些超大規(guī)模企業(yè)而言,“那個(gè)基于看似永遠(yuǎn)增長(zhǎng)的利潤(rùn)率來數(shù)倍擴(kuò)大估值的時(shí)代,很可能已經(jīng)結(jié)束”。

          美國銀行研究部的首席股票策略師薩維塔·薩勃拉曼尼安也就科技行業(yè)背離輕資產(chǎn)模式發(fā)出了類似警告,而硅谷的高管們正逐漸意識(shí)到,人工智能可能終結(jié)了科技行業(yè)的利潤(rùn)盛宴,甚至自動(dòng)化了大部分的編碼工作。

          最終,摩根士丹利對(duì)2026年及未來的展望描繪了一幅深刻的經(jīng)濟(jì)重構(gòu)圖景。生成式人工智能革命可能不會(huì)帶來一個(gè)消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)烏托邦,但它正在推動(dòng)一場(chǎng)由資本支出驅(qū)動(dòng)的全球基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)熱潮。這是一個(gè)重型機(jī)械、電網(wǎng)和數(shù)據(jù)中心占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位的時(shí)代,從根本上來看,至少就目前而言,人工智能的繁榮對(duì)計(jì)算機(jī)的好處遠(yuǎn)大于對(duì)人類的好處。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

          撰寫本報(bào)道時(shí),《財(cái)富》雜志記者使用生成式AI作為研究工具。編輯在發(fā)布前核實(shí)了信息的準(zhǔn)確性。

          譯者:珠珠

          人工智能革命正在改寫美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的規(guī)則,但它并未帶來消費(fèi)繁榮的黃金時(shí)代,而是引發(fā)了一場(chǎng)規(guī)模巨大、資源密集的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)熱潮。在這場(chǎng)熱潮中,普通勞動(dòng)者有可能被時(shí)代拋在身后。

          根據(jù)摩根士丹利財(cái)富管理公司最新發(fā)布的一份戰(zhàn)略報(bào)告,市場(chǎng)已進(jìn)入一個(gè)“由生成式人工智能資本支出驅(qū)動(dòng)”的時(shí)代,體現(xiàn)從消費(fèi)主導(dǎo)型增長(zhǎng)轉(zhuǎn)向投資主導(dǎo)型的“再工業(yè)化復(fù)興”。重要的是,這種變化這與以往的技術(shù)革命(如互聯(lián)網(wǎng)、個(gè)人電腦或移動(dòng)設(shè)備)都截然不同。

          摩根士丹利財(cái)富管理公司首席投資官麗莎·沙萊特表示,當(dāng)前的生成式人工智能浪潮“顯然還不是以消費(fèi)者為中心”。相反,這一過程深深扎根于物理世界,以支持龐大的計(jì)算需求。

          沙萊特的團(tuán)隊(duì)指出,與數(shù)據(jù)中心相關(guān)的投資在2025年已占年度GDP增長(zhǎng)的25%,并且正在以預(yù)測(cè)實(shí)際GDP增長(zhǎng)率數(shù)倍的速度擴(kuò)張。這種巨大的規(guī)模需要數(shù)萬億美元的投資,這些投資將波及實(shí)體市場(chǎng),直接影響房地產(chǎn)、建筑、電力以及工業(yè)金屬。該公司認(rèn)為,這種趨勢(shì)正在催生出一個(gè)長(zhǎng)達(dá)數(shù)年的建設(shè)期,在此期間,“在經(jīng)濟(jì)再平衡過程中,投資取代消費(fèi),成為增長(zhǎng)驅(qū)動(dòng)力”。

          對(duì)人類并非利好

          盡管這種基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)對(duì)工業(yè)指標(biāo)來說是個(gè)利好,對(duì)人類卻意味著黯淡的前景。摩根士丹利警告稱,生成式人工智能的普及將給“勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)帶來轉(zhuǎn)型風(fēng)險(xiǎn)”。

          該報(bào)告認(rèn)為美國消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)的前景終將歸于“平平淡淡”,并受到“情緒低落、就業(yè)焦慮、3.6%的低儲(chǔ)蓄率以及不斷上升的債務(wù)和信貸違約”等因素制約。此外,該公司預(yù)測(cè),由于就業(yè)市場(chǎng)低迷、人口老齡化和人口增長(zhǎng)緩慢,消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)可能會(huì)停滯,導(dǎo)致民眾陷入加劇不平等的"K型經(jīng)濟(jì)"之中,而不是V型或U型復(fù)蘇。

          有趣的是,這種新模式也迫使科技巨頭們面對(duì)嚴(yán)峻的現(xiàn)實(shí)。多年來,美國股指一直被“輕資產(chǎn)、經(jīng)常性收入的科技商業(yè)模式”所主導(dǎo),這些模式享受著近乎為零的邊際成本和不斷擴(kuò)大的利潤(rùn)率。然而,生成式人工智能革命從根本上就不同。它是一場(chǎng)"資金饑渴的研發(fā)軍備競(jìng)賽",其經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)核心是邊際成本。這意味著,隨著科技公司增加注冊(cè)用戶,它們必須為寶貴的"算力"能力投入巨額資金。

          因此,這些昔日的輕資產(chǎn)寵兒正在轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)椤百Y本密集型、現(xiàn)金饑渴的企業(yè)”。摩根士丹利直言不諱地指出,對(duì)于這些超大規(guī)模企業(yè)而言,“那個(gè)基于看似永遠(yuǎn)增長(zhǎng)的利潤(rùn)率來數(shù)倍擴(kuò)大估值的時(shí)代,很可能已經(jīng)結(jié)束”。

          美國銀行研究部的首席股票策略師薩維塔·薩勃拉曼尼安也就科技行業(yè)背離輕資產(chǎn)模式發(fā)出了類似警告,而硅谷的高管們正逐漸意識(shí)到,人工智能可能終結(jié)了科技行業(yè)的利潤(rùn)盛宴,甚至自動(dòng)化了大部分的編碼工作。

          最終,摩根士丹利對(duì)2026年及未來的展望描繪了一幅深刻的經(jīng)濟(jì)重構(gòu)圖景。生成式人工智能革命可能不會(huì)帶來一個(gè)消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)烏托邦,但它正在推動(dòng)一場(chǎng)由資本支出驅(qū)動(dòng)的全球基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)熱潮。這是一個(gè)重型機(jī)械、電網(wǎng)和數(shù)據(jù)中心占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位的時(shí)代,從根本上來看,至少就目前而言,人工智能的繁榮對(duì)計(jì)算機(jī)的好處遠(yuǎn)大于對(duì)人類的好處。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

          撰寫本報(bào)道時(shí),《財(cái)富》雜志記者使用生成式AI作為研究工具。編輯在發(fā)布前核實(shí)了信息的準(zhǔn)確性。

          譯者:珠珠

          The artificial intelligence revolution is rewriting the rules of the American economy, but rather than ushering in a golden age of consumer prosperity, it is sparking a massive, resource-heavy infrastructure boom that could leave the everyday worker behind.

          According to a newly released strategic report from Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, the market has entered a “gen-AI-capex-powered” era that represents a rare shift away from consumption-led growth and toward an investment-led “reindustrialization renaissance.” The catch is it’s very unlike previous technological revolutions—such as the internet, personal computers, or mobile devices.

          The current generative AI wave is “not obviously consumer-centric yet,” according to Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. Instead, the build-out is deeply rooted in the physical world to support massive computing needs.

          Shalett’s team noted data-center-related investment already accounted for a staggering 25% of annual GDP growth in 2025, and is expanding at a pace that is multiples of forecasted real GDP growth. This immense scale requires trillions of dollars of investment that will ripple through physical markets, directly impacting real estate, construction, power and electricity generation, and industrial metals. The firm argues this dynamic is catalyzing a multiyear period in which “investment dominates consumption as the growth driver amid economic rebalancing.”

          About those humans

          While this infrastructure build-out is a boon for industrial metrics, the outlook for humans is markedly less rosy. Morgan Stanley warns of “transformational risks to the labor market” brought on by the gen AI diffusion.

          The report describes prospects for the U.S. consumer as ultimately “unremarkable,” weighed down by “depressed sentiment, job anxiety, a low 3.6% savings rate, and rising indebtedness and credit delinquencies.” Furthermore, the firm predicts consumption growth will likely stall owing to a lackluster job market, aging demographics, and slow population growth, leaving the populace trapped within “K-shaped economic dynamics” that exacerbate inequality, referencing the meme over the past five years that leaped from finance Twitter and into reality, with the wealthy and working class representing branching lines on the “K,” rather than a “V-shaped” or “U-shaped” financial recovery.

          Interestingly, this new paradigm is also forcing a harsh reality check on tech titans. For years, U.S. indexes have been dominated by “asset-light, recurring-revenue tech business models” that enjoyed near-zero marginal costs and ever-expanding margins. However, the gen AI revolution is fundamentally different. It is a “cash-hungry R&D arms race” with marginal-cost economics, meaning as tech companies add subscribers, they must simultaneously spend vastly more on precious “compute” capacity.

          Consequently, these former asset-light darlings are transforming into “capital-intensive, cash-flow-hungry businesses.” Morgan Stanley bluntly states that for these hyperscalers, “the era of multiple expansion based on seemingly ever-expanding profit margins is likely over.”

          Bank of America Research chief equity strategist Savita Subramanian has sounded similar alarms about tech’s move away from an asset-light model, while Silicon Valley executives are waking up to the fact AI may have ended the tech industry’s profit gravy train, and even automated most coding work.

          Ultimately, Morgan Stanley’s vision of 2026 and beyond is one of profound economic realignment. The gen AI revolution may not be delivering a consumer utopia, but it is fueling a global, capex-driven infrastructure boom. It is an era in which heavy machinery, power grids, and data centers reign supreme, fundamentally suggesting that, at least for now, the AI boom is far better for computers than it is for humans.

          For this story, Fortune journalists used generative AI as a research tool. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.

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