
高盛集團(tuán)(Goldman Sachs)的前首席執(zhí)行官預(yù)測,伊朗戰(zhàn)爭不會(huì)演變?yōu)槌志脩?zhàn)。
2006年至2018年執(zhí)掌這家知名投行的勞爾德·貝蘭克梵,在周二播出的美國消費(fèi)者新聞與商業(yè)頻道(CNBC)采訪中表示,這場沖突造成的壓力足以使其迅速終結(jié)。
貝蘭克梵稱:“這種局面根本無法承受,對所有人——美國、我們的盟友——都極為不利,而……受沖擊最嚴(yán)重的,恰恰是我們的敵人。”
貝蘭克梵最為人熟知的成就,是帶領(lǐng)高盛集團(tuán)平穩(wěn)渡過2008年金融危機(jī),并助其躋身全球營收規(guī)模最大的投行之列。但與摩根大通(JPMorgan)的杰米·戴蒙不同,他擔(dān)任首席執(zhí)行官期間,極少就地緣政治議題公開發(fā)聲。不過近期為宣傳本月初出版的回憶錄《華爾街智慧:駕馭高盛》(Streetwise: Getting to and Through Goldman Sachs),貝蘭克梵對伊朗戰(zhàn)爭等議題發(fā)表了坦率見解。
貝蘭克梵在美國消費(fèi)者新聞與商業(yè)頻道的采訪中還指出,反對聲浪并非僅限于美國,而是席卷全球。
他補(bǔ)充道:“其影響如此深遠(yuǎn),以至于海灣周邊所有國家乃至全球各國都將因此團(tuán)結(jié)起來——這將成為凝聚世界的力量。”
貝蘭克梵發(fā)表此番言論之際,伊朗沖突在上周末再度升級。美國與以色列加大了對伊朗的空襲力度,以色列還將黎巴嫩列為打擊目標(biāo),旨在打擊伊朗支持的武裝組織黎巴嫩真主黨。與此同時(shí),伊朗發(fā)起報(bào)復(fù)行動(dòng),襲擊了美國位于沙特阿拉伯、阿聯(lián)酋和卡塔爾的軍事基地。伊朗還以公然對抗的姿態(tài),宣布穆杰塔巴·哈梅內(nèi)伊接替其父阿里·侯賽尼·哈梅內(nèi)伊擔(dān)任最高領(lǐng)袖,后者在美軍空襲中喪生。
特朗普總統(tǒng)周一在新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上宣稱戰(zhàn)爭“很快就會(huì)結(jié)束”,但隨即表示美國將“采取進(jìn)一步行動(dòng)”。盡管特朗普的表態(tài)推動(dòng)周二股市上漲,但美國國防部部長皮特·赫格塞思在與參謀長聯(lián)席會(huì)議主席聯(lián)合召開的新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上稱,美國“絕不會(huì)收手,直至敵人被徹底、決定性地?fù)魯 薄?/p>
受伊朗戰(zhàn)爭影響,國際油價(jià)周一一度飆升至每桶117美元,隨后因?yàn)樘乩势盏谋響B(tài)而回落。美國汽車協(xié)會(huì)(AAA)數(shù)據(jù)顯示,全美汽油均價(jià)從2月21日的每加侖2.93美元,漲至周二的每加侖3.53美元,17天內(nèi)的漲幅達(dá)到20.4%。
貝蘭克梵就伊朗問題發(fā)表異常坦率的言論,一改他作為全球頂級投行首席執(zhí)行官一貫的謹(jǐn)慎風(fēng)格。在執(zhí)掌高盛集團(tuán)的12年間,他歷經(jīng)伊拉克戰(zhàn)爭、2014年俄羅斯吞并克里米亞等國際沖突,但鮮少公開置評。
然而在上周接受采訪時(shí),貝蘭克梵詳細(xì)闡述了自己的觀點(diǎn):只要持續(xù)時(shí)間較短,伊朗戰(zhàn)爭等地緣政治事件通常不會(huì)對市場造成太大沖擊。他雖認(rèn)為伊朗戰(zhàn)爭不會(huì)演變?yōu)槌志脩?zhàn),但一旦拖成持久戰(zhàn),影響將更為嚴(yán)重。
他在接受美國公共廣播公司(PBS)《新聞一小時(shí)》(PBS News Hour)欄目采訪時(shí)稱:“我認(rèn)為,如果霍爾木茲海峽(Strait of Hormuz)被封鎖,油價(jià)持續(xù)高企,將推高通脹并引發(fā)其他連鎖反應(yīng)。”
霍爾木茲海峽位于伊朗南部,是波斯灣(Persian Gulf)的咽喉要道,全球約20%的液化天然氣和原油都經(jīng)此運(yùn)輸。專家指出,若該航道遭封鎖,將引發(fā)比20世紀(jì)70年代更嚴(yán)重的石油沖擊——當(dāng)時(shí)油價(jià)飆升40%,加油站前排長隊(duì)成為常態(tài)。
盡管如此,貝蘭克梵在美國公共廣播公司的采訪中淡化了沖突升級的可能性,他說:“除了是全球主要的能源供應(yīng)地之外,當(dāng)前沖突所涉地區(qū)在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)中的體量并不算大。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
高盛集團(tuán)(Goldman Sachs)的前首席執(zhí)行官預(yù)測,伊朗戰(zhàn)爭不會(huì)演變?yōu)槌志脩?zhàn)。
2006年至2018年執(zhí)掌這家知名投行的勞爾德·貝蘭克梵,在周二播出的美國消費(fèi)者新聞與商業(yè)頻道(CNBC)采訪中表示,這場沖突造成的壓力足以使其迅速終結(jié)。
貝蘭克梵稱:“這種局面根本無法承受,對所有人——美國、我們的盟友——都極為不利,而……受沖擊最嚴(yán)重的,恰恰是我們的敵人。”
貝蘭克梵最為人熟知的成就,是帶領(lǐng)高盛集團(tuán)平穩(wěn)渡過2008年金融危機(jī),并助其躋身全球營收規(guī)模最大的投行之列。但與摩根大通(JPMorgan)的杰米·戴蒙不同,他擔(dān)任首席執(zhí)行官期間,極少就地緣政治議題公開發(fā)聲。不過近期為宣傳本月初出版的回憶錄《華爾街智慧:駕馭高盛》(Streetwise: Getting to and Through Goldman Sachs),貝蘭克梵對伊朗戰(zhàn)爭等議題發(fā)表了坦率見解。
貝蘭克梵在美國消費(fèi)者新聞與商業(yè)頻道的采訪中還指出,反對聲浪并非僅限于美國,而是席卷全球。
他補(bǔ)充道:“其影響如此深遠(yuǎn),以至于海灣周邊所有國家乃至全球各國都將因此團(tuán)結(jié)起來——這將成為凝聚世界的力量。”
貝蘭克梵發(fā)表此番言論之際,伊朗沖突在上周末再度升級。美國與以色列加大了對伊朗的空襲力度,以色列還將黎巴嫩列為打擊目標(biāo),旨在打擊伊朗支持的武裝組織黎巴嫩真主黨。與此同時(shí),伊朗發(fā)起報(bào)復(fù)行動(dòng),襲擊了美國位于沙特阿拉伯、阿聯(lián)酋和卡塔爾的軍事基地。伊朗還以公然對抗的姿態(tài),宣布穆杰塔巴·哈梅內(nèi)伊接替其父阿里·侯賽尼·哈梅內(nèi)伊擔(dān)任最高領(lǐng)袖,后者在美軍空襲中喪生。
特朗普總統(tǒng)周一在新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上宣稱戰(zhàn)爭“很快就會(huì)結(jié)束”,但隨即表示美國將“采取進(jìn)一步行動(dòng)”。盡管特朗普的表態(tài)推動(dòng)周二股市上漲,但美國國防部部長皮特·赫格塞思在與參謀長聯(lián)席會(huì)議主席聯(lián)合召開的新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上稱,美國“絕不會(huì)收手,直至敵人被徹底、決定性地?fù)魯 薄?/p>
受伊朗戰(zhàn)爭影響,國際油價(jià)周一一度飆升至每桶117美元,隨后因?yàn)樘乩势盏谋響B(tài)而回落。美國汽車協(xié)會(huì)(AAA)數(shù)據(jù)顯示,全美汽油均價(jià)從2月21日的每加侖2.93美元,漲至周二的每加侖3.53美元,17天內(nèi)的漲幅達(dá)到20.4%。
貝蘭克梵就伊朗問題發(fā)表異常坦率的言論,一改他作為全球頂級投行首席執(zhí)行官一貫的謹(jǐn)慎風(fēng)格。在執(zhí)掌高盛集團(tuán)的12年間,他歷經(jīng)伊拉克戰(zhàn)爭、2014年俄羅斯吞并克里米亞等國際沖突,但鮮少公開置評。
然而在上周接受采訪時(shí),貝蘭克梵詳細(xì)闡述了自己的觀點(diǎn):只要持續(xù)時(shí)間較短,伊朗戰(zhàn)爭等地緣政治事件通常不會(huì)對市場造成太大沖擊。他雖認(rèn)為伊朗戰(zhàn)爭不會(huì)演變?yōu)槌志脩?zhàn),但一旦拖成持久戰(zhàn),影響將更為嚴(yán)重。
他在接受美國公共廣播公司(PBS)《新聞一小時(shí)》(PBS News Hour)欄目采訪時(shí)稱:“我認(rèn)為,如果霍爾木茲海峽(Strait of Hormuz)被封鎖,油價(jià)持續(xù)高企,將推高通脹并引發(fā)其他連鎖反應(yīng)。”
霍爾木茲海峽位于伊朗南部,是波斯灣(Persian Gulf)的咽喉要道,全球約20%的液化天然氣和原油都經(jīng)此運(yùn)輸。專家指出,若該航道遭封鎖,將引發(fā)比20世紀(jì)70年代更嚴(yán)重的石油沖擊——當(dāng)時(shí)油價(jià)飆升40%,加油站前排長隊(duì)成為常態(tài)。
盡管如此,貝蘭克梵在美國公共廣播公司的采訪中淡化了沖突升級的可能性,他說:“除了是全球主要的能源供應(yīng)地之外,當(dāng)前沖突所涉地區(qū)在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)中的體量并不算大。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
The former CEO of Goldman Sachs is predicting the Iran war won’t last long.
Lloyd Blankfein, who helmed the famed investment bank from 2006 to 2018, said in a CNBC interview published Tuesday the pressure created by the conflict may be enough to end it soon.
“It’s so impossible to live with, and it’s bad for everyone—for the U.S., for our allies—and … the ones who are worse affected by it are our enemies,” said Blankfein.
Blankfein is best known for navigating Goldman through the 2008 financial crisis and helping it become one of the world’s largest investment banks by revenue, but as CEO he mostly shied away from commenting on geopolitics, unlike counterpart Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan. Yet Blankfein has spoken candidly on the issue of the Iran war and other subjects recently as he promotes his memoir, Streetwise: Getting to and Through Goldman Sachs, published earlier this month.
In the CNBC interview Blankfein also said resistance to the war is not limited to the U.S. and is taking place around the world.
“The effect of it is so severe that all the countries that surround the Gulf and everybody else in the world are—this is going to be the unifying factor for the world,” he added.
Blankfein’s comments come as the Iran conflict escalated over the weekend. The U.S. and Israel have increased their bombing campaign on Iran, but Israel has also targeted Lebanon, as they look to strike the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah. Meanwhile, Iran has targeted U.S. military bases in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar in retaliation. In an act of defiance, Iran also named Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader to replace his father, Ali Hosseini Khamenei, who was killed in a U.S. airstrike.
President Donald Trump, for his part, said in a press conference Monday the war “will be over very soon,” but followed it up by saying the U.S. would “go further.” While Trump’s comments pushed stocks up on Tuesday, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said in a joint press conference with the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff that the U.S. “will not relent until the enemy is totally and decisively defeated.”
The Iran war already sent oil prices skyrocketing to as high as $117 a barrel Monday before retreating on comments from Trump. Average gas prices rose to $3.53 as of Tuesday from $2.93 per gallon on Feb. 21—a 20.4% jump in 17 days, according to AAA.
Blankfein’s unusually candid comments on Iran mark a departure from his buttoned-up style as CEO of one of the most prestigious investment banks in the world. His 12-year tenure as Goldman’s CEO spanned multiple conflicts abroad, including the Iraq War and Russia’s 2014 invasion of the Crimean Peninsula, though he rarely commented publicly on such events.
Yet in an interview last week, Blankfein spoke at length about his belief that geopolitical events like the Iran war generally don’t affect markets too much as long as they are short-lived. While he said he doesn’t believe the Iran war will become a long-term conflict, if it did, the effects may be more pronounced.
“I suppose if they close the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices stayed up, that would feed into inflation, and that would create other kinds of dislocation,” he told PBS News Hour.
The Strait of Hormuz, bordering Iran to the south, is a critical route that enables an estimated 20% of global liquefied natural gas and gas shipments through the Persian Gulf. Experts have said the closing of this route would amount to an oil shock greater than that of the 1970s in which gas prices surged by 40% and long lines at the pump were the norm.
Still, Blankfein in his interview with PBS played down the potential of a broader escalation in the conflict, saying: “We’re not dealing in a part of the world that’s a really big part of the global economy other than the fact that it sources a lot of energy.”