
一個“幽靈”正籠罩著白領世界,那就是白領崗位流失。但在華爾街被稱為“宇宙的主人”的資產管理巨頭拉里·芬克看來,機器里還藏著另一個“幽靈”。
在致貝萊德(BlackRock)股東的年度信中,這位首席執行官指出,技術進步對《財富》500強企業構成了更為嚴峻的威脅。作為指數基金革命的領軍人物,他關注的核心始終是資產以及誰擁有這些資產。真正的威脅在于分配不平等和整體財富分配。
芬克警告稱,近幾十年來,資產價格一路飆升,薪資水平卻基本停滯,這導致財富不平等進一步加劇。他近期已多次強調這一問題。AI不僅會讓擁有資產的人受益,還會讓那些能夠運用這一技術的人加速積累財富。
芬克在周一發布的致股東年度信中寫道:“絕大多數財富流向了那些擁有資產的人,而不是主要靠勞動賺取收入的人。”
“如今,AI有可能以更大規模重演這一模式——將財富進一步集中到那些有能力獲取技術紅利的企業和投資者手中。”
美聯儲(Federal Reserve)的研究顯示,美國的貧富差距從未如此懸殊。去年第三季度,這一差距達到了自1989年美聯儲開始追蹤家庭財富分化以來的最高水平。最富有的1%人群掌握著美國31.7%的財富,這一比例與底層90%人群所擁有的財富總和相當。高收入群體的財富大多集中在股票、房地產等資產上,普通美國人越來越難分一杯羹。芬克表示,隨著人工智能的快速發展及企業加速應用,這一趨勢可能會進一步加劇。
回報兩極分化
AI驅動的生產力提升,或許有望帶動整體工資上漲,但迄今為止的大多數證據表明,AI的應用僅讓相對有限的崗位的薪資有所上漲,而圍繞該技術的樂觀預期卻顯著提振了股市。芬克在信中寫道,自1989年以來,美國中位數工資的增長幅度僅為股市回報的十五分之一。
如今,AI非但不會扭轉這一走勢,反而極有可能使其愈演愈烈,至少在短期內是如此。對于那些未能直接受益的人來說,財富差距可能很快會變得更加懸殊。
芬克寫道:“當市值狂飆,所有權卻高度集中時,局外人會愈發感到繁榮遙不可及。這正是當今許多經濟焦慮的根源:人們隱約感到資本主義依然奏效,只是沒有惠及足夠多的人。”
芬克在信中將AI稱為至少自計算機問世以來最重要的技術,但AI可能迅速擴大不平等。他警告稱,AI可能將巨額財富進一步集中到少數最有能力獲取其價值的企業和投資者手中。他還表示,這可能加劇經濟的“K型分化”:資本更充裕、更能抓住AI機會的企業和投資者實現更快增長,而受益較少的一方則陷入停滯,從而進一步擴大不平等。
芬克寫道:“變革性技術會創造巨大的價值,而其中大部分價值都會流向開發和部署這些技術的公司,以及持有股權的投資者。那些擁有數據、基礎設施和資本、能夠大規模部署AI的公司,將獲得遠超平均水平的巨大收益。”
目前的數據似乎也印證了他的判斷。穆迪(Moody’s)首席經濟學家馬克·贊迪指出,美國經濟正越來越依賴高收入人群的消費支撐。近年來,高收入群體的支出大幅增長,而中低收入家庭的可自由支配支出則出現放緩,甚至陷入停滯。
牛津經濟研究院(Oxford Economics)首席執行官英尼斯·麥克菲近日對《財富》雜志表示,隨著AI的應用,這一趨勢愈發令人擔憂。AI推動的股市上漲是高收入群體信心的重要來源。他指出,盡管AI讓美國整體財富增長了7%,但收益幾乎全進了富人的腰包。他認為AI最終“絕對”有潛力抹平財富差距,但至少在2035年之前,美國經濟更可能維持“K型分化”格局。
同樣的趨勢也體現在就業領域。到目前為止,AI帶來的生產力提升主要集中在需要AI相關技能的崗位,這些職位的薪資溢價最高可達43%。但對于大多數崗位而言,AI尚未帶來顯著的生產力或薪資提升,反而給負責管理AI系統的員工增加了工作負擔。
AI會成為長期“均衡器”?
普華永道(PwC)去年的模型研究表明,從長期來看,AI帶來的效率提升可能會提高農業、制造業等行業低收入崗位的工資水平,并帶動就業增長,從而縮小依賴這些行業的國家的貧富差距。此外,一些專家(包括城市研究所(Urban Institute)的分析人士)還建議向AI公司收取使用費,設立全民基本收入計劃,以緩解不平等問題。
但就目前而言,要想從AI中受益,要么從事需要AI技能的工作,要么對人工智能的發展前景進行投資。鑒于近40%的美國人根本不參與股市,相當一部分人或許可能會被排除在外,成為“旁觀者”。(財富中文網)
譯者:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
一個“幽靈”正籠罩著白領世界,那就是白領崗位流失。但在華爾街被稱為“宇宙的主人”的資產管理巨頭拉里·芬克看來,機器里還藏著另一個“幽靈”。
在致貝萊德(BlackRock)股東的年度信中,這位首席執行官指出,技術進步對《財富》500強企業構成了更為嚴峻的威脅。作為指數基金革命的領軍人物,他關注的核心始終是資產以及誰擁有這些資產。真正的威脅在于分配不平等和整體財富分配。
芬克警告稱,近幾十年來,資產價格一路飆升,薪資水平卻基本停滯,這導致財富不平等進一步加劇。他近期已多次強調這一問題。AI不僅會讓擁有資產的人受益,還會讓那些能夠運用這一技術的人加速積累財富。
芬克在周一發布的致股東年度信中寫道:“絕大多數財富流向了那些擁有資產的人,而不是主要靠勞動賺取收入的人。”
“如今,AI有可能以更大規模重演這一模式——將財富進一步集中到那些有能力獲取技術紅利的企業和投資者手中。”
美聯儲(Federal Reserve)的研究顯示,美國的貧富差距從未如此懸殊。去年第三季度,這一差距達到了自1989年美聯儲開始追蹤家庭財富分化以來的最高水平。最富有的1%人群掌握著美國31.7%的財富,這一比例與底層90%人群所擁有的財富總和相當。高收入群體的財富大多集中在股票、房地產等資產上,普通美國人越來越難分一杯羹。芬克表示,隨著人工智能的快速發展及企業加速應用,這一趨勢可能會進一步加劇。
回報兩極分化
AI驅動的生產力提升,或許有望帶動整體工資上漲,但迄今為止的大多數證據表明,AI的應用僅讓相對有限的崗位的薪資有所上漲,而圍繞該技術的樂觀預期卻顯著提振了股市。芬克在信中寫道,自1989年以來,美國中位數工資的增長幅度僅為股市回報的十五分之一。
如今,AI非但不會扭轉這一走勢,反而極有可能使其愈演愈烈,至少在短期內是如此。對于那些未能直接受益的人來說,財富差距可能很快會變得更加懸殊。
芬克寫道:“當市值狂飆,所有權卻高度集中時,局外人會愈發感到繁榮遙不可及。這正是當今許多經濟焦慮的根源:人們隱約感到資本主義依然奏效,只是沒有惠及足夠多的人。”
芬克在信中將AI稱為至少自計算機問世以來最重要的技術,但AI可能迅速擴大不平等。他警告稱,AI可能將巨額財富進一步集中到少數最有能力獲取其價值的企業和投資者手中。他還表示,這可能加劇經濟的“K型分化”:資本更充裕、更能抓住AI機會的企業和投資者實現更快增長,而受益較少的一方則陷入停滯,從而進一步擴大不平等。
芬克寫道:“變革性技術會創造巨大的價值,而其中大部分價值都會流向開發和部署這些技術的公司,以及持有股權的投資者。那些擁有數據、基礎設施和資本、能夠大規模部署AI的公司,將獲得遠超平均水平的巨大收益。”
目前的數據似乎也印證了他的判斷。穆迪(Moody’s)首席經濟學家馬克·贊迪指出,美國經濟正越來越依賴高收入人群的消費支撐。近年來,高收入群體的支出大幅增長,而中低收入家庭的可自由支配支出則出現放緩,甚至陷入停滯。
牛津經濟研究院(Oxford Economics)首席執行官英尼斯·麥克菲近日對《財富》雜志表示,隨著AI的應用,這一趨勢愈發令人擔憂。AI推動的股市上漲是高收入群體信心的重要來源。他指出,盡管AI讓美國整體財富增長了7%,但收益幾乎全進了富人的腰包。他認為AI最終“絕對”有潛力抹平財富差距,但至少在2035年之前,美國經濟更可能維持“K型分化”格局。
同樣的趨勢也體現在就業領域。到目前為止,AI帶來的生產力提升主要集中在需要AI相關技能的崗位,這些職位的薪資溢價最高可達43%。但對于大多數崗位而言,AI尚未帶來顯著的生產力或薪資提升,反而給負責管理AI系統的員工增加了工作負擔。
AI會成為長期“均衡器”?
普華永道(PwC)去年的模型研究表明,從長期來看,AI帶來的效率提升可能會提高農業、制造業等行業低收入崗位的工資水平,并帶動就業增長,從而縮小依賴這些行業的國家的貧富差距。此外,一些專家(包括城市研究所(Urban Institute)的分析人士)還建議向AI公司收取使用費,設立全民基本收入計劃,以緩解不平等問題。
但就目前而言,要想從AI中受益,要么從事需要AI技能的工作,要么對人工智能的發展前景進行投資。鑒于近40%的美國人根本不參與股市,相當一部分人或許可能會被排除在外,成為“旁觀者”。(財富中文網)
譯者:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
A specter is haunting the world of white-collar work: the specter of white-collar job loss. But one of Wall Street’s “Masters of the Universe,” asset management billionaire Larry Fink sees another ghost in the machine.
Writing in his annual letter to BlackRock shareholders, the CEO identified a much greater threat from technological progress to the Fortune 500. Fittingly, for the man who played a major role in the index-fund revolution, his mind was on assets and who owns them—or doesn’t. Inequality and overall wealth is the real threat.
With asset values soaring in recent decades as salaries largely stagnate, wealth inequality will only get worse, warned Fink, who has been beating this drum often of late. AI threatens to concentrate wealth not only with those who have assets, he explained, but those who use this technology.
“The vast majority of wealth has flowed to people who owned assets, not to people who earned most of their money by working,” Fink wrote in his annual letter to shareholders on Monday.
“Now AI threatens to repeat that pattern at an even larger scale—concentrating wealth among the companies and investors positioned to capture it.”
Research from the Federal Reserve has found America’s haves and have-nots have rarely been this far apart. In the third quarter of last year, the gap was the widest it’s been since 1989, when the Fed began tracking household wealth divergence. The top 1% held 31.7% of U.S. wealth, comparable to all wealth owned by the bottom 90%. With most high-income wealth held in assets from stocks to real estate, it’s become increasingly inaccessible to a growing segment of Americans. And with the speeding growth and corporate adoption of artificial intelligence, that trend risks accelerating, according to Fink.
Uneven returns
AI-driven productivity might potentially raise wages across the board, but most evidence so far suggests AI adoption has raised wages in a relatively small pool of jobs, while excitement surrounding the technology has boosted stock markets. Fink wrote that since 1989, median wages in the U.S. have lagged stock market returns by a factor of 15.
Now, AI looks most likely to lengthen that trend rather than reverse it—at least in the short term. For people not directly exposed to its benefits, the wealth gap might soon look a lot wider.
“When market capitalization rises but ownership remains narrow, prosperity can feel increasingly distant to those on the outside,” Fink wrote. “This is where much of today’s economic anxiety comes from: a deeper feeling that capitalism is working—just not for enough people.”
In his letter, Fink described AI as the most significant technology since at least the computer, but nonetheless risks putting inequality on steroids. He warned that AI could concentrate massive wealth primarily among a handful of companies and investors best positioned to capture its value. It could accelerate “K-shaped outcomes” for the economy, he added, where firms and investors with greater access to capital benefit from faster growth, while those less exposed to rising asset valuations stagnate, driving inequality even further.
“Transformative technologies create enormous value—and much of that value accrues to the companies that build and deploy them, and to the investors who own them,” he wrote. “The companies with the data, infrastructure, and capital to deploy AI at scale are positioned to benefit disproportionately.”
The data so far seems to support Fink’s argument. The U.S. is increasingly mired in an economy supported by wealthy consumers, according to Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi. Spending from high-earners has surged in recent years, while low and middle-income households have seen their discretionary spending slow or even plateau.
The trend grows more worrisome with the use of this new tech, as AI-driven gains in the stock market are a big part of high-income confidence, Oxford Economics CEO Innes McFee recently told Fortune. While the technology has led to a 7% rise in U.S. wealth, that benefit is almost entirely contained to high-earning households, he said. While AI could “absolutely” even out wealth inequality eventually, it is more likely to maintain the U.S. economy’s K-shape until at least 2035, McFee said.
The same trend is visible in jobs. So far, AI-related productivity boosts are mostly reserved for workers whose jobs demand AI-related skills, roles that can expect a wage premium as high as 43%. But for most jobs, AI has yet to translate to significant productivity or wage gains, and might actually be leading to larger workloads for employees tasked with managing AI.
A long run equalizer?
Over the long term, AI-driven efficiency could lead to higher wages and job growth among low-income professions in sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing, potentially reducing inequality in countries heavily reliant on those sectors, according to modeling last year by PwC. And some experts, including analysts at the Urban Institute, have argued for a universal basic income program drawing royalties from AI companies as a measure to lessen inequality.
But for the moment, benefiting from AI requires working in a role requiring AI skills or being financially invested in its growth story. With nearly 40% of Americans not exposed to the stock market at all, a sizable portion of the population could be caught on the outside looking in.