
全球能源市場的異常現象,造成了資源充裕地區與資源匱乏地區之間鮮明的地域分化:美國西得克薩斯州天然氣供過于求,價格跌至負值;而在美國對伊朗開戰的背景下,歐洲與亞洲卻面臨迫在眉睫的供應短缺風險。
交易員向彭博社透露,過去一周,二疊紀盆地瓦哈天然氣交易中心的現貨價格一度跌至每百萬英熱單位-9.75美元,因運營商開展季節性維護導致管道運力收緊,預計今年晚些時候,價格或跌至-10美元。
究其原因,油氣資源富集的二疊紀盆地在原油開采過程中會伴生大量天然氣。然而,盡管當地擁有龐大的原油輸送管網,天然氣運輸基礎設施卻相對不足,由此造成運輸瓶頸,引發區域性供應過剩。
因此,負氣價在西得克薩斯州并不罕見,今年到目前為止,這種情況甚至更為常見。但上周瓦哈天然氣交易中心的周均現貨價格創下了歷史新低。
負氣價意味著生產商需要倒貼費用,才能讓買家接手天然氣供應。在這種情況下,過剩天然氣往往會被直接燒掉,本季度所謂的燃除量已達到五年來的最高水平。
即便面臨氣價倒掛的壓力,西得克薩斯州鉆井商也不太可能削減產量,原因是石油利潤豐厚,足以抵消天然氣帶來的損失。
自美以對伊朗開戰以來,原油價格近期飆升,進一步擴大了原油開采的盈利空間。過去三周,西得克薩斯中質原油價格暴漲47%,逼近每桶100美元。
相比之下,受伊朗戰爭引發的供應中斷影響,全球其他地區的天然氣價格飆升。伊朗方面已采取報復行動,基本上封鎖了霍爾木茲海峽——全球20%的原油和液化天然氣均經此航道運輸。
伊朗還襲擊了卡塔爾的拉斯拉凡工業城,造成兩條液化天然氣生產線受損,這將影響該國約17%的液化天然氣出口,且修復工作可能需要長達五年時間。
盡管中東大部分液化天然氣均出口至亞洲,但隨著亞洲和歐洲爭奪剩余天然氣,此次供應沖擊將在全球市場引發連鎖反應。
周四,歐洲基準天然氣期貨價格一度飆升35%,至每兆瓦時約70歐元,即每百萬英熱單位超20美元,是戰前水平的兩倍。
盡管這一價格遠低于2022年俄烏沖突后創下的每兆瓦時345歐元的歷史紀錄,但本輪價格暴漲,恰逢歐洲的能源敏感窗口期。冬季供暖需求已消耗大量天然氣庫存,受此影響,各國必須在今夏補充天然氣儲備。
亞洲的形勢更為嚴峻,各國已開始研究能源配給方案,包括推行每周四天工作制、居家辦公等措施。
分析師向彭博社表示,若霍爾木茲海峽遭長期封鎖,亞洲液化天然氣現貨價格可能會從今年春天的每百萬英熱單位26美元升至夏季的30美元以上。若封鎖持續六個月,價格甚至可能突破40美元。
部分亞洲國家甚至重啟了2022年的應急策略,重新轉向燃煤發電。例如,泰國政府已下令燃煤電廠滿負荷運行,孟加拉國的公用事業企業也加大了煤炭用量。
作為全球半導體核心產區,韓國和中國臺灣省已釋放信號,計劃進一步提高燃煤發電占比。
歐亞集團(Eurasia Group)能源部董事總經理亨寧·格洛伊斯坦(Henning Gloystein)告訴《紐約時報》:“亞洲正陷入全面價格競爭,任何能從天然氣發電轉向燃煤發電的國家,都已開始行動。”(財富中文網)
譯者:中慧言-王芳
全球能源市場的異常現象,造成了資源充裕地區與資源匱乏地區之間鮮明的地域分化:美國西得克薩斯州天然氣供過于求,價格跌至負值;而在美國對伊朗開戰的背景下,歐洲與亞洲卻面臨迫在眉睫的供應短缺風險。
交易員向彭博社透露,過去一周,二疊紀盆地瓦哈天然氣交易中心的現貨價格一度跌至每百萬英熱單位-9.75美元,因運營商開展季節性維護導致管道運力收緊,預計今年晚些時候,價格或跌至-10美元。
究其原因,油氣資源富集的二疊紀盆地在原油開采過程中會伴生大量天然氣。然而,盡管當地擁有龐大的原油輸送管網,天然氣運輸基礎設施卻相對不足,由此造成運輸瓶頸,引發區域性供應過剩。
因此,負氣價在西得克薩斯州并不罕見,今年到目前為止,這種情況甚至更為常見。但上周瓦哈天然氣交易中心的周均現貨價格創下了歷史新低。
負氣價意味著生產商需要倒貼費用,才能讓買家接手天然氣供應。在這種情況下,過剩天然氣往往會被直接燒掉,本季度所謂的燃除量已達到五年來的最高水平。
即便面臨氣價倒掛的壓力,西得克薩斯州鉆井商也不太可能削減產量,原因是石油利潤豐厚,足以抵消天然氣帶來的損失。
自美以對伊朗開戰以來,原油價格近期飆升,進一步擴大了原油開采的盈利空間。過去三周,西得克薩斯中質原油價格暴漲47%,逼近每桶100美元。
相比之下,受伊朗戰爭引發的供應中斷影響,全球其他地區的天然氣價格飆升。伊朗方面已采取報復行動,基本上封鎖了霍爾木茲海峽——全球20%的原油和液化天然氣均經此航道運輸。
伊朗還襲擊了卡塔爾的拉斯拉凡工業城,造成兩條液化天然氣生產線受損,這將影響該國約17%的液化天然氣出口,且修復工作可能需要長達五年時間。
盡管中東大部分液化天然氣均出口至亞洲,但隨著亞洲和歐洲爭奪剩余天然氣,此次供應沖擊將在全球市場引發連鎖反應。
周四,歐洲基準天然氣期貨價格一度飆升35%,至每兆瓦時約70歐元,即每百萬英熱單位超20美元,是戰前水平的兩倍。
盡管這一價格遠低于2022年俄烏沖突后創下的每兆瓦時345歐元的歷史紀錄,但本輪價格暴漲,恰逢歐洲的能源敏感窗口期。冬季供暖需求已消耗大量天然氣庫存,受此影響,各國必須在今夏補充天然氣儲備。
亞洲的形勢更為嚴峻,各國已開始研究能源配給方案,包括推行每周四天工作制、居家辦公等措施。
分析師向彭博社表示,若霍爾木茲海峽遭長期封鎖,亞洲液化天然氣現貨價格可能會從今年春天的每百萬英熱單位26美元升至夏季的30美元以上。若封鎖持續六個月,價格甚至可能突破40美元。
部分亞洲國家甚至重啟了2022年的應急策略,重新轉向燃煤發電。例如,泰國政府已下令燃煤電廠滿負荷運行,孟加拉國的公用事業企業也加大了煤炭用量。
作為全球半導體核心產區,韓國和中國臺灣省已釋放信號,計劃進一步提高燃煤發電占比。
歐亞集團(Eurasia Group)能源部董事總經理亨寧·格洛伊斯坦(Henning Gloystein)告訴《紐約時報》:“亞洲正陷入全面價格競爭,任何能從天然氣發電轉向燃煤發電的國家,都已開始行動。”(財富中文網)
譯者:中慧言-王芳
A quirk in global energy markets has created a stark geographic divide between the haves and the have nots, as a glut of natural gas in West Texas has produced negative prices while shortages loom over Europe and Asia amid the U.S. war on Iran.
Over the past week, spot prices at the Waha gas trading hub in the Permian Basin fell as low as -$9.75 per million British thermal units, with expectations that it could hit -$10 when pipeline capacity tightens as operators perform seasonal maintenance later this year, traders told Bloomberg.
That’s because drilling in the prolific Permian Basin yields both oil and natural gas. But while an extensive network of pipelines exists to bring crude to market, there’s less infrastructure to transport natural gas, creating bottlenecks and localized surpluses.
As a result, negative gas prices aren’t that unusual in West Texas, and have been that way more often than not so far this year. But last week saw the lowest weekly average Waha spot price on record.
Since negative prices mean producers have to pay to someone to take the supply off their hands, excess natural gas is often burned off, and so-called flaring events this season are at five-year highs.
Despite the upside-down price environment for West Texas drillers, they aren’t expected to pull back production because oil is lucrative enough to offset losses from gas.
And the recent spike in crude since the U.S.-Israel war on Iran started makes oil even more profitable. West Texas Intermediate has shot up 47% to nearly $100 a barrel in the last three weeks.
By contrast, other parts of the world have seen natural gas prices surge due to disruptions from the Iran war. Tehran has retaliated by largely closing off the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil and liquified natural gas flow.
Iran also attacked Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, damaging two LNG production trains that will impact about 17% of the country’s LNG exports—and repairs may take up to five years.
While most LNG from the Middle East goes to Asia, the supply shock will ripple through global markets as Asia and Europe compete for the remaining gas.
European benchmark gas futures jumped as much as 35% on Thursday to about 70 euros per megawatt hour, or more than $20 per million BTUs, double their prewar levels.
While that’s far short of the record 345 euros per megawatt hour seen in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, the latest price spike comes at a sensitive time for Europe. After heating demand drew down gas inventories during winter, countries must now restock supplies this summer.
In Asia, the situation is so dire that countries have already started looking ways to ration energy, such as implementing four-day workweeks and working from home.
A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could send LNG spot prices in Asia above $30 per million BTUs in the summer from $26 this spring, analysts told Bloomberg. And if it remains shut in six months, the price could even top $40.
Some countries in Asia are even turning to coal to generate electricity, returning to their 2022 playbook. The Thai government, for example, has already ordered coal-fired power plants to operate at full capacity. Utilities in Bangladesh have also boosted their coal consumption.
South Korea and Taiwan, which produce much of the world’s semiconductors, have signaled they are preparing to rely more on coal.
“Asia is in full price competition, with any country that can switch from gas to coal doing so,” Henning Gloystein, a managing director for energy at Eurasia Group, told the New York Times.