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          四年三次能源沖擊,歐洲如何突圍能源困局?

          David Frykman
          2026-03-30

          人工智能競賽本質(zhì)是能源競賽。

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          風投Norrsken VC普通合伙人戴維?弗里克曼。圖片來源:courtesy of Norrsken VC

          歐洲正經(jīng)歷四年來第三次能源價格沖擊。2022年,俄羅斯將天然氣管道武器化;2023至2024年,紅海沖突擾亂航運通道;如今,中東戰(zhàn)火實際上封鎖了霍爾木茲海峽。

          俄烏沖突以來,油價首次突破每桶100美元。股市暴跌,歐洲天然氣價格暴漲約70%。每次導火索都不同,軟肋卻始終如一,即歐洲依賴的燃料并非自己所有,運輸?shù)暮S蛞矡o法掌控。

          風能與太陽能不會被外國勢力禁運、封鎖或切斷。本土可再生能源每發(fā)1太瓦時電,就意味著對手可武器化的能源少1太瓦時能源。歐洲不像美國擁有頁巖氣,也不像中國可以依賴廉價國產(chǎn)煤炭。歐洲唯一能在本土大規(guī)模生產(chǎn)的能源,就是可再生電力。歐洲必須成為全球首個電力大陸。

          這不僅是為抵御下一次地緣政治沖擊,更是為下個工業(yè)時代奠定基礎。

          人工智能競賽本質(zhì)是能源競賽

          國際能源署預測,到2030年全球數(shù)據(jù)中心用電量將翻一番以上,達到約945太瓦時,超過當前日本全部用電量。下一場工業(yè)革命的贏家,不是擁有最優(yōu)秀工程師的地區(qū),而是電力最便宜、最充足、部署最快速的地區(qū)。

          歐洲正遭受兩面擠壓。歐盟工業(yè)電價約為美國兩倍,比中國高出約50%,且差距仍在擴大。歐洲創(chuàng)業(yè)者的創(chuàng)新能力屬全球頂尖,但再多創(chuàng)新也無法抵消核心工業(yè)投入成本翻倍的劣勢。

          中美兩大強國均已悟出,能源充裕是戰(zhàn)略必需。2025年中國在清潔能源領域投資超1萬億美元。美國則享有本國廉價頁巖氣和科技巨頭巨額資本投入雙重優(yōu)勢。正如歐洲央行前行長馬里奧?德拉吉在里程碑式的競爭力報告中闡明,歐洲工業(yè)基礎正因能源成本不斷失血。若想孕育下一批千億歐元企業(yè),歐洲必須打好基礎。

          可再生能源已贏得市場,應放手建設

          好消息是:過去十年,可再生能源價格跌幅超90%。2025年,超過90%的新增可再生能源產(chǎn)能比化石能源替代方案更便宜。清潔能源是新發(fā)電方式當中成本最低,也是部署最快的選擇。

          2025年,歐盟的風能與太陽能發(fā)電量首次超過化石能源。然而,能源供應主導權仍在天然氣手中。去年風電與水電發(fā)電量小幅下滑,就迫使天然氣消耗增加,歐盟化石天然氣進口支出上漲16%。每多依賴一分天然氣,就多一分傳導外部危機的風險。

          中國將廉價本土電力作為核心競爭優(yōu)勢,正成為全球首個電力國家。但歐洲擁有中國不具備的條件:密度、電網(wǎng)互聯(lián)度與一體化單一市場,足以在整個大陸推進。2025年2月歐盟推出《清潔工業(yè)協(xié)議》,將可再生能源當做工業(yè)戰(zhàn)略核心。愿景正確,執(zhí)行卻嚴重滯后。

          許可審批問題就是安全問題

          歐盟設定的方向正確,成員國卻在暗中拆臺。去年11月,瑞典否決了波羅的海13個海上風電項目,總裝機容量近32吉瓦,僅此一項決定就讓470億歐元私人投資打了水漂。

          縱觀歐洲,立法者仍在聽取需要政策續(xù)命的傳統(tǒng)能源企業(yè)聲音,而不是支持已在開放市場獨立立足的技術。早年間可再生能源或許還需要扶持,如今已不再需要。

          能源許可必須提升到國家安全的優(yōu)先級,緊迫性應與國防采購相當。如果一座風電場審批要等八年,而一場戰(zhàn)爭八小時就能封鎖一條海峽,現(xiàn)行的許可制度就是戰(zhàn)略負擔。

          要贏得人工智能競賽,就不能用全球最昂貴的電力。要打造千億歐元公司,就不能出現(xiàn)每次外國政府封鎖航道就崩潰的局面。

          歐洲要想贏得競賽,需要的不是政府加大補貼,而是政府許可。資本已就位,企業(yè)巨頭迫切渴求綠色電力,養(yǎng)老基金與基建投資者隨時準備投入。缺失的不是資金也不是技術,而是允許建設的政治意愿。(財富中文網(wǎng))

          戴維?弗里克曼是風投Norrsken VC普通合伙人,該公司總部位于斯德哥爾摩,主要支持解決全球重大挑戰(zhàn)的創(chuàng)業(yè)者。

          Fortune.com上評論文章中表達的觀點僅代表作者個人觀點,并不代表《財富》雜志的觀點和立場。

          譯者:梁宇

          審校:夏林

          歐洲正經(jīng)歷四年來第三次能源價格沖擊。2022年,俄羅斯將天然氣管道武器化;2023至2024年,紅海沖突擾亂航運通道;如今,中東戰(zhàn)火實際上封鎖了霍爾木茲海峽。

          俄烏沖突以來,油價首次突破每桶100美元。股市暴跌,歐洲天然氣價格暴漲約70%。每次導火索都不同,軟肋卻始終如一,即歐洲依賴的燃料并非自己所有,運輸?shù)暮S蛞矡o法掌控。

          風能與太陽能不會被外國勢力禁運、封鎖或切斷。本土可再生能源每發(fā)1太瓦時電,就意味著對手可武器化的能源少1太瓦時能源。歐洲不像美國擁有頁巖氣,也不像中國可以依賴廉價國產(chǎn)煤炭。歐洲唯一能在本土大規(guī)模生產(chǎn)的能源,就是可再生電力。歐洲必須成為全球首個電力大陸。

          這不僅是為抵御下一次地緣政治沖擊,更是為下個工業(yè)時代奠定基礎。

          人工智能競賽本質(zhì)是能源競賽

          國際能源署預測,到2030年全球數(shù)據(jù)中心用電量將翻一番以上,達到約945太瓦時,超過當前日本全部用電量。下一場工業(yè)革命的贏家,不是擁有最優(yōu)秀工程師的地區(qū),而是電力最便宜、最充足、部署最快速的地區(qū)。

          歐洲正遭受兩面擠壓。歐盟工業(yè)電價約為美國兩倍,比中國高出約50%,且差距仍在擴大。歐洲創(chuàng)業(yè)者的創(chuàng)新能力屬全球頂尖,但再多創(chuàng)新也無法抵消核心工業(yè)投入成本翻倍的劣勢。

          中美兩大強國均已悟出,能源充裕是戰(zhàn)略必需。2025年中國在清潔能源領域投資超1萬億美元。美國則享有本國廉價頁巖氣和科技巨頭巨額資本投入雙重優(yōu)勢。正如歐洲央行前行長馬里奧?德拉吉在里程碑式的競爭力報告中闡明,歐洲工業(yè)基礎正因能源成本不斷失血。若想孕育下一批千億歐元企業(yè),歐洲必須打好基礎。

          可再生能源已贏得市場,應放手建設

          好消息是:過去十年,可再生能源價格跌幅超90%。2025年,超過90%的新增可再生能源產(chǎn)能比化石能源替代方案更便宜。清潔能源是新發(fā)電方式當中成本最低,也是部署最快的選擇。

          2025年,歐盟的風能與太陽能發(fā)電量首次超過化石能源。然而,能源供應主導權仍在天然氣手中。去年風電與水電發(fā)電量小幅下滑,就迫使天然氣消耗增加,歐盟化石天然氣進口支出上漲16%。每多依賴一分天然氣,就多一分傳導外部危機的風險。

          中國將廉價本土電力作為核心競爭優(yōu)勢,正成為全球首個電力國家。但歐洲擁有中國不具備的條件:密度、電網(wǎng)互聯(lián)度與一體化單一市場,足以在整個大陸推進。2025年2月歐盟推出《清潔工業(yè)協(xié)議》,將可再生能源當做工業(yè)戰(zhàn)略核心。愿景正確,執(zhí)行卻嚴重滯后。

          許可審批問題就是安全問題

          歐盟設定的方向正確,成員國卻在暗中拆臺。去年11月,瑞典否決了波羅的海13個海上風電項目,總裝機容量近32吉瓦,僅此一項決定就讓470億歐元私人投資打了水漂。

          縱觀歐洲,立法者仍在聽取需要政策續(xù)命的傳統(tǒng)能源企業(yè)聲音,而不是支持已在開放市場獨立立足的技術。早年間可再生能源或許還需要扶持,如今已不再需要。

          能源許可必須提升到國家安全的優(yōu)先級,緊迫性應與國防采購相當。如果一座風電場審批要等八年,而一場戰(zhàn)爭八小時就能封鎖一條海峽,現(xiàn)行的許可制度就是戰(zhàn)略負擔。

          要贏得人工智能競賽,就不能用全球最昂貴的電力。要打造千億歐元公司,就不能出現(xiàn)每次外國政府封鎖航道就崩潰的局面。

          歐洲要想贏得競賽,需要的不是政府加大補貼,而是政府許可。資本已就位,企業(yè)巨頭迫切渴求綠色電力,養(yǎng)老基金與基建投資者隨時準備投入。缺失的不是資金也不是技術,而是允許建設的政治意愿。(財富中文網(wǎng))

          戴維?弗里克曼是風投Norrsken VC普通合伙人,該公司總部位于斯德哥爾摩,主要支持解決全球重大挑戰(zhàn)的創(chuàng)業(yè)者。

          Fortune.com上評論文章中表達的觀點僅代表作者個人觀點,并不代表《財富》雜志的觀點和立場。

          譯者:梁宇

          審校:夏林

          Europe is living through its third energy price shock in four years. In 2022, Russia weaponized its gas pipelines. In 2023–24, conflict in the Red Sea disrupted shipping lanes. Now, war in the Middle East has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz.

          Oil has breached $100 a barrel for the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Stock markets are in freefall. European gas prices have surged roughly 70%. Each time the trigger is different. The vulnerability is always the same: Europe runs on fuel it does not own, shipped through waters it does not control.

          Wind and solar cannot be embargoed, blockaded, or shut off by a foreign power. Every terawatt-hour of domestic renewable generation is a terawatt-hour that no adversary can weaponize. Unlike the U.S., Europe has no shale gas. Unlike China, it cannot fall back on cheap domestic coal. The only energy Europe can produce at scale, on its own soil, is renewable electricity. Europe must now become the world’s first Electro-Continent.

          This is not only about shielding against the next geopolitical shock. It is about building the foundation for the next industrial era.

          The AI Race Is an Energy Race

          The IEA projects that global data-center electricity consumption will more than double by 2030, reaching roughly 945 terawatt-hours — more than Japan consumes today. The winner of the next industrial revolution will not be the region with the best engineers. It will be the region that can deliver the cheapest, most abundant, fastest-to-deploy power.

          Europe is being squeezed from both sides. Industrial electricity prices in the EU are roughly twice those in the U.S. and about 50% higher than in China — a gap that is widening. European founders are already world-class at innovation. But no amount of innovation can overcome a 100% overhead on your primary industrial input.

          Both superpowers have understood that energy abundance is a strategic necessity. China invested over $1 trillion in clean energy in 2025. The U.S. enjoys the double advantage of cheap domestic shale gas and the massive capital commitments of Big Tech. As former ECB President Mario Draghi’s landmark competitiveness report made clear, Europe’s industrial base is bleeding out because of energy costs. If Europe wants to host the next generation of €100 billion companies, it must fix the foundation.

          Renewables Won the Market. Now Let Them Build.

          The good news: renewable energy prices have dropped more than 90% over the past decade. In 2025, over 90% of new renewable capacity was cheaper than the fossil fuel alternative. Clean energy is the cheapest and fastest form of new generation available.

          Wind and solar generated more EU electricity than fossil fuels for the first time in 2025. Yet the gas tail still wags the dog. A single dip in wind and hydro output last year forced higher gas burn, pushing the EU’s fossil gas import bill up 16%. Every remaining molecule of gas dependency is a transmission mechanism for the next foreign crisis.

          China is becoming the world’s first electro-state — making cheap, domestically produced electricity its primary competitive advantage. But Europe has something China does not: the density, grid interconnection, and integrated single market to do this at continental scale. The EU’s Clean Industrial Deal, launched in February 2025, places renewables at the heart of industrial strategy. The vision is correct. The execution is failing.

          The Permits Problem Is a Security Problem

          While Brussels sets the right direction, member states are undermining it. Last November, Sweden rejected 13 offshore wind projects in the Baltic Sea — projects with a combined capacity of nearly 32 gigawatts. That single decision wiped out €47 billion of private investment.

          Across Europe, legislators are still listening to incumbent energy companies that need policy life-support to survive, rather than backing technologies that already stand on their own in open markets. Renewables may have needed an early push. They do not need one now.

          Energy permits must be treated as national security priorities — with the same urgency as defense procurement. If a wind farm permit takes eight years, but a war can close a strait in eight hours, the permitting system is a strategic liability.

          You cannot fight a trade war with China by starving your own industries of power. You cannot win the AI race with the world’s most expensive electricity. You cannot build €100 billion companies on a foundation that cracks every time a foreign government closes a shipping lane.

          Europe does not need more government handouts to win this race. It needs government permissions. The capital is there. Corporate giants are desperate for green electrons. Pension funds and infrastructure investors are ready to deploy. What is missing is not money or technology. It is the political willingness to let them build.

          David Frykman is a General Partner at Norrsken VC, the Stockholm-based venture fund backing founders solving the world's greatest challenges.

          The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.

          財富中文網(wǎng)所刊載內(nèi)容之知識產(chǎn)權為財富媒體知識產(chǎn)權有限公司及/或相關權利人專屬所有或持有。未經(jīng)許可,禁止進行轉載、摘編、復制及建立鏡像等任何使用。
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