
美股七巨頭股價較其52周高點下跌超10%;伊朗戰爭讓本就充滿不確定性的人工智能板塊雪上加霜。
微軟(Microsoft)受此次回調沖擊最為嚴重,股價較10月峰值下跌約32%,或將創下公司史上最糟糕的年度開局。Meta股價下跌約25%,Alphabet股價較2月收盤高點下跌約15%。就連人工智能板塊的“寵兒”英偉達(Nvidia)和表現強勁的亞馬遜(Amazon),今年股價也呈跌勢。追蹤這七家公司的彭博指數顯示,該指數于3月中旬進入回調區間,收盤價較去年10月創下的歷史高點下跌逾10%。
此次拋售標志著過去數年人工智能熱潮推動的上漲行情出現急劇逆轉,該指數在2023年上漲107%,2024年上漲67%,2025年上漲25%。目前,多重利空因素正同時沖擊該板塊。自2月28日“史詩怒火行動”發起以來,油價飆升,重新點燃了通脹預期,并改變了利率前景。根據芝加哥商品交易所(CME)的FedWatch工具,市場目前預計美聯儲年底前加息的可能性高于降息,而此前寬松的利率環境,正是成長股看漲邏輯的核心支柱。
與此同時,市場對人工智能基礎設施支出的熱情已然消退,當前態度更趨恐慌而非期待。谷歌、微軟、亞馬遜和Meta這四家科技巨頭2026年的資本支出總額預計將超過6500億美元,較2025年增長約60%。機構資金似乎已從這些大型科技股中撤出,轉而流向能源、工業和國內制造業板塊。
人們將部分科技股市值的快速縮水與當年的互聯網泡沫破裂事件相類比。凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)在上周五發布的一份報告中指出,標普500指數的信息技術板塊估值已與其他板塊趨同,這一走勢與20世紀末互聯網泡沫破裂前幾個月的情形如出一轍。
不過,凱投宏觀認為,盡管這些科技股股價下跌,但其盈利預期仍在,因此不宜過度悲觀地將此次行情與互聯網泡沫破裂事件相類比。
盡管該機構警告稱,若沖突長期持續,標普500指數最終可能跌至6000點,但其核心觀點是,人工智能基礎設施建設不會因戰爭而受阻,估值回升將推動美股在今年下半年重回高位。
高級市場經濟學家詹姆斯·賴利(James Reilly)寫道:“鑒于美國科技股將跑贏大盤,且美國經濟受此次沖突的影響似乎小于多數國家,我們認為美股的表現將持續優于其他市場。”
近日,多起爭議事件也對美股七巨頭形成了沖擊。瑞銀(UBS)直言微軟的Copilot人工智能產品表現不及市場預期;Meta剛在一場具有里程碑意義的社交媒體成癮訴訟案中敗訴;此外,這些公司的許多人工智能愿景都與OpenAI緊密相關,而OpenAI剛剛終止了與迪士尼(Disney)的一筆巨額交易,試圖鞏固自身在好萊塢的地位。
部分投資者在市場動蕩中看到了機遇。Edwards Asset Management首席投資官羅伯特·愛德華茲(Robert Edwards)認為,當前大型科技股的收益率已接近國債收益率,且鑒于這些公司資產負債表強勁、實際盈利持續增長,當前價位的科技股頗具吸引力。
愛德華茲表示:“大型科技股估值合理,且具備真正的增長潛力。”
但逢低買入者并未在本輪回調中入場,背后是有原因的。事實上,盡管唐納德·特朗普進一步推遲了針對伊朗能源基礎設施的打擊計劃,納斯達克指數上周五仍大跌2%。
這場戰爭帶來的不確定性,是傳統估值框架無法完全定價的;而霍爾木茲海峽封鎖事件再度引發了人們對美國其他潛在脆弱環節的關注,包括中國臺灣省的相關風險,目前該地區尚未建立半導體戰略儲備。
投資者似乎已對特朗普在戰事上反復無常的表態感到厭倦,轉而開始直接關注以色列持續空襲伊朗、伊朗發起反擊所釋放的信號。截至發稿時,伊朗仍完全控制著霍爾木茲海峽。全球20%的石油需經此海峽運輸,且伊朗正考慮對過往船只征收通行費。(財富中文網)
譯者:中慧言-王芳
美股七巨頭股價較其52周高點下跌超10%;伊朗戰爭讓本就充滿不確定性的人工智能板塊雪上加霜。
微軟(Microsoft)受此次回調沖擊最為嚴重,股價較10月峰值下跌約32%,或將創下公司史上最糟糕的年度開局。Meta股價下跌約25%,Alphabet股價較2月收盤高點下跌約15%。就連人工智能板塊的“寵兒”英偉達(Nvidia)和表現強勁的亞馬遜(Amazon),今年股價也呈跌勢。追蹤這七家公司的彭博指數顯示,該指數于3月中旬進入回調區間,收盤價較去年10月創下的歷史高點下跌逾10%。
此次拋售標志著過去數年人工智能熱潮推動的上漲行情出現急劇逆轉,該指數在2023年上漲107%,2024年上漲67%,2025年上漲25%。目前,多重利空因素正同時沖擊該板塊。自2月28日“史詩怒火行動”發起以來,油價飆升,重新點燃了通脹預期,并改變了利率前景。根據芝加哥商品交易所(CME)的FedWatch工具,市場目前預計美聯儲年底前加息的可能性高于降息,而此前寬松的利率環境,正是成長股看漲邏輯的核心支柱。
與此同時,市場對人工智能基礎設施支出的熱情已然消退,當前態度更趨恐慌而非期待。谷歌、微軟、亞馬遜和Meta這四家科技巨頭2026年的資本支出總額預計將超過6500億美元,較2025年增長約60%。機構資金似乎已從這些大型科技股中撤出,轉而流向能源、工業和國內制造業板塊。
人們將部分科技股市值的快速縮水與當年的互聯網泡沫破裂事件相類比。凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)在上周五發布的一份報告中指出,標普500指數的信息技術板塊估值已與其他板塊趨同,這一走勢與20世紀末互聯網泡沫破裂前幾個月的情形如出一轍。
不過,凱投宏觀認為,盡管這些科技股股價下跌,但其盈利預期仍在,因此不宜過度悲觀地將此次行情與互聯網泡沫破裂事件相類比。
盡管該機構警告稱,若沖突長期持續,標普500指數最終可能跌至6000點,但其核心觀點是,人工智能基礎設施建設不會因戰爭而受阻,估值回升將推動美股在今年下半年重回高位。
高級市場經濟學家詹姆斯·賴利(James Reilly)寫道:“鑒于美國科技股將跑贏大盤,且美國經濟受此次沖突的影響似乎小于多數國家,我們認為美股的表現將持續優于其他市場。”
近日,多起爭議事件也對美股七巨頭形成了沖擊。瑞銀(UBS)直言微軟的Copilot人工智能產品表現不及市場預期;Meta剛在一場具有里程碑意義的社交媒體成癮訴訟案中敗訴;此外,這些公司的許多人工智能愿景都與OpenAI緊密相關,而OpenAI剛剛終止了與迪士尼(Disney)的一筆巨額交易,試圖鞏固自身在好萊塢的地位。
部分投資者在市場動蕩中看到了機遇。Edwards Asset Management首席投資官羅伯特·愛德華茲(Robert Edwards)認為,當前大型科技股的收益率已接近國債收益率,且鑒于這些公司資產負債表強勁、實際盈利持續增長,當前價位的科技股頗具吸引力。
愛德華茲表示:“大型科技股估值合理,且具備真正的增長潛力。”
但逢低買入者并未在本輪回調中入場,背后是有原因的。事實上,盡管唐納德·特朗普進一步推遲了針對伊朗能源基礎設施的打擊計劃,納斯達克指數上周五仍大跌2%。
這場戰爭帶來的不確定性,是傳統估值框架無法完全定價的;而霍爾木茲海峽封鎖事件再度引發了人們對美國其他潛在脆弱環節的關注,包括中國臺灣省的相關風險,目前該地區尚未建立半導體戰略儲備。
投資者似乎已對特朗普在戰事上反復無常的表態感到厭倦,轉而開始直接關注以色列持續空襲伊朗、伊朗發起反擊所釋放的信號。截至發稿時,伊朗仍完全控制著霍爾木茲海峽。全球20%的石油需經此海峽運輸,且伊朗正考慮對過往船只征收通行費。(財富中文網)
譯者:中慧言-王芳
Every Magnificent 7 stock is now down double digits from its 52-week high, with the group’s losses accelerating as the war in Iran compounds on the already fraught AI trade.
Microsoft has been hit the hardest by the drawdown, falling roughly 32% from its October peak, on track for its worst start to a year in its history. Meta is down about 25%, and Alphabet roughly 15% from its closing high last month. Even the darling of the AI trade, Nvidia, and the high-performing Amazon are negative on the year. A Bloomberg index tracking the seven said it had entered correction territory in mid-March, closing more than 10% below its October record.
The selloff marks a sharp reversal from years of AI-fueled gains—the index rose 107% in 2023, 67% in 2024, and 25% in 2025. Multiple forces are now working against the group simultaneously. Oil prices have surged since Operation Epic Fury began Feb. 28, reigniting inflation expectations and shifting the interest-rate outlook. Markets now price in a greater chance of rate hikes by year-end than cuts, according to CME’s FedWatch tool, removing what had been a key pillar of the bull case for growth stocks.
At the same time, though, the excitement around AI infrastructure spending has waned, and now the market seems as spooked by it than enticed. Combined capital expenditures for Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta are expected to exceed $650 billion in 2026, an increase of about 60% from 2025. Institutional money, it seems, has rotated out of these Big Tech stocks and into energy, industrials and domestic manufacturing.
Some of the quick compression in value has drawn comparisons to the dot-com bust. Capital Economics wrote in a note on Friday that the S&P 500’s IT sector has converged with the valuations of the rest of the index, a pattern that matched the final months of the 2000s bubble.
Still, Capital Economics believes that the earnings estimates for the stocks, even as prices have fallen, should give pause to too many ominous comparisons.
While the firm warned that a prolonged conflict could ultimately push the S&P 500 down to 6,000, its baseline view is that the AI buildout won’t be derailed by the war, and that a recovery in valuations will eventually put U.S. stocks back on top later this year.
“That tech outperformance, alongside the fact that the US economy looks less exposed to the conflict than most, informs our view that US equities will continue faring better than their peers,” senior markets economist James Reilly wrote.
Several controversies have also slammed the Mag 7 in recent days. Microsoft’s Copilot AI product has been described as a disappointment by UBS. Meta just lost a landmark trial on its social media addiction. And many of these companies’ AI dreams are tied up in OpenAI, which just exited a massive deal with Disney to try to secure its place in Hollywood.
Some investors see opportunities where there is wreckage. Robert Edwards, chief investment officer at Edwards Asset Management, argued that Big Tech earnings yields now resemble Treasury yields, and that the group’s strong balance sheets and real earnings growth make them attractive at current levels.
“Big Tech is where valuations are reasonable, where you have real growth,” Edwards said.
But there’s a reason dip-buyers aren’t jumping in during the drawdown. In fact, the Nasdaq tumbled 2% on Friday, despite President Donald Trump further delaying his threat to attack Iran’s energy infrastructure.
The war has introduced uncertainty that traditional valuation frameworks can’t fully price, and the Hormuz blockade has renewed focus on other potential vulnerabilities for the U.S.—including in Taiwan, where no strategic semiconductor reserve exists.
Investors seemed tired of his flip-flopping rhetoric on the war, and have started paying attention instead directly to the signal of Israel continuing to strike Iran, and vice versa. As of writing, Iran still has complete control over the Strait of Hormuz, the strait from which 20% of the world’s oil gets passed through, and are considering adding a toll for ships to pass the Strait.