云公司大舉上市有玄機

????Greenway公司在其財年中截至去年6月30日前都顯示為凈盈利，但最近一個財季中卻報告了40.6萬美元的凈虧損。近期IPO的4家云公司中，Guidewire是唯一一家持續盈利的。去年，其稅前利潤為830萬美元，最近一個財季，利潤則為790萬美元。

????這些足以解釋為什么在近期上市的4家云公司中，Guidewire的股價表現最好。它的成功似乎也為那些收入規模明顯偏小、尚未盈利的云公司鋪平了IPO的道路。不過，盡管IPO市場一向對赤字沒有好感，這些公司還是獲得了熱捧。

????原因可能要歸功于人們對云技術的狂熱。或者這也可能是因為Facebook這個龐然大物上市在即，華爾街已經開始提前點火造勢，推動更多基于網絡的公司進行IPO。Facebook及其投資銀行自然樂于看到網絡公司IPO后在初期仍然表現紅火。但是近期市場情況表明，很多剛剛上市時春風得意的公司幾個月后就會偃旗息鼓。

????也許除了Guidewire，上述云公司的IPO可能也難逃此劫。對于這些始終虧損、不斷燒錢的公司來說，它們的股票定價算是高昂：Greenway的市值是其歷史收入的4.5倍，Brightcove是6.1倍，而Bazaarvoice則高達14.6倍。目前，分析人士和媒體記者們正在對Facebook的財務狀況進行透徹的審查，如果投資者對上面這些股票也能報以這種態度，它們可能就不會像現在這樣風光了。

????譯者：清遠

????Greenway showed a net profit in its fiscal year through June 30, but slipped to a $406,000 net loss in its most recent quarter. Guidewire is the only consistently profitable company of the four recent cloud IPOs, reporting a $8.3 million profit last year before taxes and $7.9 million profit in its most recent quarter.

????All of which explains why Guidewire is the best performing stock of the four cloud companies to go public in recent weeks. Its success seemed to pave the way for cloud IPOs that were significantly smaller in revenue and that had yet to post a profit. But somehow they have all managed to receive warm welcomes in a IPO market that is not always kind to red ink.

????It may be chalked up to cloud mania. Or it may be Wall Street priming its IPO for more web-based offerings ahead of the mammoth Facebook deal. It's very much in the interest of Facebook -- and its investment banks -- to see web IPOs perform well after they debut. But recent history shows that many web offerings that start strong out of the gate languish after a few months.

????That may be the case with these cloud IPOs as well, except perhaps for Guidewire. For companies that are losing money and burning through cash, they are priced richly: Greenway is trading at 4.5 times its historical revenue, Brightcove is trading at 6.1 times, and Bazaarvoice at an expensive 14.6 times revenue. If investors were to put the kind of critical scrutiny to these stocks that analysts and reporters are applying to Facebook's financials, they might not be faring so well.