云計算有望引爆電子游戲的新一輪革命

????游戲迷們沸騰了。對于任何試圖預測電子游戲未來的人來說，過去的一個月絕對是喧囂不安的一個月：先是任天堂（Nintendo）在電子娛樂大會發布Wii U游戲主機，然后是這款產品將在圣誕期間上市的傳聞引發的大討論；又有一個所謂兩年之前的微軟（Microsoft）備忘錄泄漏了下一代Xbox的細節；此外還有索尼公司（Sony）收購云游戲服務公司Gaikai的消息。實際上，新一代游戲主機背后最大的推動力或許并不是一流的處理器，也不是創新的控制器，而是云技術。

????所謂云游戲其實就是一種顛覆。一般來說，電子游戲系統已經變得日益強大。游戲機的科技含量越高，屏幕上顯示的畫面也就更加出色。（當然價格也就越高。）而云游戲則恰恰相反，它的畫面由遠程服務器進行渲染，并通過互聯網將圖像發送到玩家的屏幕。這樣一來，云游戲服務公司就類似于網飛公司（Netflix）等訂閱服務提供商。當然，這種模式也存在巨大的挑戰：高質量圖像可能導致數據通道崩潰，而由于網絡延遲，快節奏游戲的響應速度可能變成一場夢魘。

????過去幾年，許多公司都聲稱已經解決了這個問題。OnLive或許是云游戲領域最令人矚目的公司。這家公司擁有一個高品質游戲庫，而且公司還推出了可以在蘋果（Apple）iOS設備上運行的應用程序，雖然尚未獲得批準，但已經是萬眾期待。而憑借為《阿凡達》（Avatar）等電影遠程輸送高品質圖像而揚名的Otoy公司則承諾將發布用于游戲的云渲染平臺。Gaikai公司則直接利用Java技術，將《死亡島》（Dead Island）和《黑道圣徒3》（Saints Row: The Third）等高品質游戲發送到網頁瀏覽器上。今年7月2日，索尼公司以3.8億美元的價格收購了Gaikai。

????Gaikai以如此高的價格被收購，不禁讓行業觀察家們好奇，這是否代表云游戲時代終于到來？Otoy創始人兼CEO朱爾斯?烏爾巴赫認為：“索尼收購Gaikai是對云游戲領域的極大認可。現在，所有人都開始重視云游戲。”今年3月，Otoy收購了新西蘭Refractive Software軟件公司，再加上2011年歐特克公司（Autodesk）對Otoy的秘密投資，現在，這家地處洛杉磯的公司正在改進內容創作工具，幫助游戲開發商優化通過云提供的圖像。該公司的游戲流媒體平臺目前正處于封閉內測階段。

????但對于云游戲，業內也存在不同聲音。Xbox高級產品經理戴維?丹尼斯表示，微軟認為，云游戲沒有足夠的基礎設施，因此還不足以改變消費者玩游戲的方式。丹尼斯說：“在云游戲模式下，玩家可能正在玩一款可能存在潛在問題的3A大制作游戲。而且，在游戲過程中，他們還在消耗著寬帶流量。結果，除了正常的寬帶賬單外，它還會給玩家帶來巨大的增量成本。這種基礎設施或者模式根本無法在全球推廣。”

????在可以預見的未來，微軟計劃將不需要高速光纖連接的在線功能作為重點業務。未來，微軟將為Xbox Live的4,000萬用戶提供流媒體電影、音樂與電視服務；數字游戲發行，以及游戲數據儲存等服務。丹尼斯承認，技術進步可能在未來五年內出現。他認為，到時候游戲手柄仍會處理各種數據。

????上個月，一份號稱是微軟備忘錄的文件顯示，微軟一直在考慮替代性方案。這份規劃文件可以追溯到2009年，文件中表示，到2015年，流媒體服務將成為Xbox的主要特色。此外，備忘錄將OnLive作為潛在的威脅和收購目標，因為OnLive“有潛力使3A游戲不再需要昂貴的游戲機和個人電腦，因此將徹底顛覆游戲機市場。”（對于這份文件的真實性，丹尼斯拒絕發表評論。）

????OnLive創始人兼CEO斯蒂夫?帕爾默沒有否認這些傳言。帕爾默曾在微軟擔任部門負責人，他說：“他們提出了許各種收購方案。毫無疑問，OnLive符合公司一系列不同的策略。”但是，OnLive目前正在運行的產品，發行首日的用戶數量就達到數百萬，更不用說OnLive桌面應用的遠程計算能力。所以，收購OnLive的價格，肯定遠遠高于索尼給Gaikai開出的價碼。

????市場分析機構IDATE的分析顯示，當前硬件的全球市場規模達到600億美元。但從2010年至2011年，游戲機市場僅增長了可憐的0.4%，而且這還得歸功于在線游戲和社交游戲，傳統游戲機的銷量卻在下降。NPD集團近期的一項調查發現，2012年第一季度，美國消費者在電子游戲上的開支為34億美元，而實體內容的銷售額比去年同期下降了5%，但數字內容卻上漲了10%。在這樣的大環境下，云游戲似乎更為可行。

????是不是很有諷刺意味？雖然多年以來，OnLive和其他公司一直在緩慢發展，但索尼收購Gaikai的舉動卻立刻改變了這種態勢。帕爾默說：“只要有人提出質疑，并且說：‘我們落后了，’風險方程式馬上就會發生改變。重點不是‘希望不會發生這種情況’，而是‘希望我們不會掉隊’。”

????譯者：劉進龍/汪皓

????The fanboys are in a frenzy. The past month has been tumultuous for anybody trying to divine the future of video games thanks to hands-on sessions of Nintendo's (NTDOY) Wii U fanning holiday launch rumors at the Electronic Entertainment Expo, an alleged two-year-old Microsoft memo leaking details of the next Xbox, and Sony acquiring the game-streaming company Gaikai. But the biggest force shaping the next consoles may not be amped processors or innovative controllers. It might be the cloud.

????So-called cloud gaming involves a kind of apostasy. Typically, video game systems have gotten progressively more powerful. The more technical wizardry inside the box, the more fantastic the graphics displayed on-screen. (And the higher the price.) In contrast, cloud games are rendered by remote servers that beam images to screens over the Internet. This allows cloud gaming companies to operate much more like subscription services such as Netflix (NFLX). But there are considerable challenges: high quality graphics crush data pipes, and twitchy responses in fast-paced games can suffer because of network lag.

????Over the past few years, several companies claimed to have cracked the problem. OnLive may be the highest profile company in the segment. It features a library of high-quality games as well as a still-unapproved but long-awaited app to play on Apple iOS devices. Otoy, known for remotely powering high-quality graphics for films like Avatar, has promised to release a cloud rendering platform which could be used for games. And Gaikai, which uses Java to stream high-quality games like Dead Island and Saints Row: The Third directly to web browsers, is being absorbed by Sony (SNE) in a $380 million deal announced July 2.

????The Gaikai acquisition, with its high price tag, has had industry observers wondering if cloud gaming's time has finally arrived. "Having Sony acquire them is enormous validation of the space, in a way that now everybody is taking cloud gaming very seriously," says Otoy founder and CEO, Jules Urbach. With Otoy's purchase of New Zealand-based Refractive Software in March, and an undisclosed investment by Autodesk (ADSK) in 2011, the Los Angeles-based company is fashion content creation tools to help game developers optimize graphics for delivery via the cloud. The company's game streaming platform is currently in closed beta.

????There are hold outs though. According to David Dennis, senior group manager for Xbox, Microsoft (MSFT) does not believe that streaming has enough infrastructure to change the way games are played. "A model where someone is playing a AAA blockbuster game where there could be latency issues -- and by the way, while they're playing, they're running up the meter on their broadband, adding huge, incremental costs on top of their standard broadband bill -- is not an infrastructure or model that scales on a consistent global level," says Dennis.

????The company plan, for the foreseeable future, is to focus on online features that don't require high-speed fiber connections. Streaming movies, music, and television; digital game distribution; and save game data are likely all that's in store for Xbox Live's 40 million users in the coming years. Dennis concedes that advances may come five years down the line. Until then, he thinks consoles will continue to crunch the data.

????An alleged memo from Microsoft that surfaced last month suggests the company has contemplated the alternative. The planning document which dated back to 2009 said streaming could be a major feature of Xbox by 2015. The memo also listed OnLive as a threat and a possible acquisition target with the potential to "up-end the console gaming market by making expensive consoles and PCs unnecessary for AAA gaming." (Dennis declined to comment on the document's authenticity.)

????OnLive founder and CEO Steve Perlman also did little to deny the rumors. "Every kind of acquisition of every sort has been put on the table," says the former Microsoft division president. "There's no question that OnLive could go and fit together with a number of different company's strategies." But with a working product offering launch-day titles to an estimated tens of millions of users -- not to mention the remote computing capabilities on its OnLive Desktop app -- OnLive could haul in a much higher sum than Gaikai earned from Sony.

????The current generation of hardware has become a $60 billion worldwide market, according to IDATE. But from 2010 to 2011, it grew a measly 0.4%, with online and social gaming providing most of the lift as traditional consoles declined. According to a recent study by the NPD Group, consumers in the U.S. spent $3.4 billion on video games in the first quarter 2012, and though physical content sales declined 5% against the same quarter 2011, digital content increased 10%. In that kind of climate, cloud gaming looks more viable.

????The irony? Though OnLive and others have slowly been building their businesses for years, Sony's purchase of Gaikai instantly changed the dynamic. "Once someone's thrown the gauntlet down and said, 'We're getting behind this thing,' then the risk equation changes," says Perlman. "It's less about 'let's hope this doesn't happen,' and more about 'let's hope we don't get left behind.'"