超前Windows 8可能遇冷

????而這還只是惡夢的開始。一旦進入系統，用戶看到的不再是多年來已習慣的微軟桌面，而是一堆漂浮在黑色背景上五顏六色、叫做“實時圖塊”（live tiles）的矩形色塊。這些色塊在屏幕上平行移動，迫使使用者向左或向右劃動它們，或用鼠標向一側滾動，對于絕大多數使用非觸摸屏設備的用戶來說，這又是一個陌生的動作。有一個辦法可以打開看起來比較像桌面的屏幕，但是任務欄里的“開始”按鈕不見了，而“開始”按鈕通常是進入電腦所有功能的入口。既然“開始”按鈕取消了，那這個偽桌面也就失去了存在的基本意義。

????關于這個操作系統不好用的批評聲已經不絕于耳。比如，它需要三到四步才能關機。像“控制面板”和其他一些重要菜單都已不復存在，它們的功能被分散在漂浮的各個色塊中。所以，這個新系統不僅僅是和舊版本大有不同，它看起來就效率低下。當然了，微軟還是和往常一樣自有一番理論。近來有一則介紹Windows歷史的博文流傳甚廣。文中，Windows和Windows Live部門的總裁斯蒂文?辛諾夫斯基稱：“在計算機發展史上，人們總是不斷地適應新模式和互動方式——就算在不同的網站、應用和手機之間轉換，也是如此。我們會幫助大家適應新系統，你們很快就會非常習慣使用這些新模式，微軟對此很有信心。”

????平心而論，微軟開發這個基于平板電腦的操作系統是非常精明的，但它似乎搶跑了一步。盡管人們普遍預計PC市場最終會進化到基于觸摸屏設備，但這一進程才剛剛開始，而且還要好幾年才能最終過渡到這一市場。不過微軟將在大量觸摸屏手機上搭載Windows 8，微軟自行設計開發的首款基于Windows的平板電腦Surface也會使用這一系統。

????觸摸屏手機和平板電腦是運行Windows 8的理想設備，但如果現在就強迫99%還沒有用上觸摸屏PC的用戶使用這一操作系統，似乎就是個錯誤了。這是因為在PC上用Windows 8的用戶很可能會被弄得垂頭喪氣，而這會讓他們對Windows 8手機和Surface避之唯恐不及。讓人擔心的是，這些“實時圖塊”會讓用戶留下數字領域的創傷后心理障礙（PTSD），讓他們每次看見這些設備就害怕得遠遠躲開。

????萬一真的發生這種情況，它對微軟來說就太遺憾了，因為Windows 8在觸摸屏設備上運行起來是不賴的。在移動平臺領域，微軟遠遠落在蘋果和谷歌之后，處于第三的位置。所以，如果微軟打算在這個至關重要的市場中從這兩大勁敵手中奪得一些市場份額的話，Windows 8的正式推出就必須毫無瑕疵。但從目前來看，這種愿望似乎很難實現，因為那些已經用了預發布版快一年的IT工程師對這個系統紛紛給出了負面評價。大家的共識似乎是Windows 8最好是嚴格限于觸摸屏設備使用，但是眼看離正式發布只有一個月的時間了，這一點好像已經不太可能。

????Windows和微軟Office可能在各自的領域里都不是最好的軟件，但對用戶來說，它們用起來既熟悉又舒服，就像戴一只舊手套或是抿一口可樂。1985年，可口可樂公司推出所謂“新可樂”，一股腦地剝奪了用戶的這種舒適感和熟悉感，結果付出了慘痛的代價。但它最后還是作出了讓步，推出新可樂三個月后就將老配方產品放在它邊上，并稱其為“經典可樂”。

????微軟如能從可口可樂公司的教訓中有所收獲將是明智的，它也應該有個應急計劃，允許較早用上Windows 8的用戶切換回Windows 7系統，以防大家集體發飆。微軟的一位發言人告訴《財富》雜志（Fortune），購買Windows 8企業版的公司可以回到Windows 7上，而普通用戶如果是從微軟商店購買的Windows 8，則可以在購買的頭30天里要求退貨。

????如果微軟在用戶感到恐慌前就能解決好他們的顧慮，Windows 8可能還能有一條生路，并在觸摸屏設備上茁壯成長起來。而在可口可樂公司這個案例中，新可樂所造成的損害是無法彌補的，公司最終不得不將其封殺。而對微軟來說，這種風險要大得多。如果僅僅因為Windows 8比較超前就扼殺了它，不僅是對資源的極大浪費，還會讓微軟在爭奪移動市場控制權的競賽中遠遠地落于人后，甚至可能再也無法趕上對手，陷在PC市場上永遠動彈不得。

????譯者：清遠

????Getting started is just the beginning of the nightmare. Once inside, instead of the normal Microsoft desktop, which has been around for decades, users are greeted to a bunch of colored squares floating in a black background, called "live tiles." The squares run off the screen horizontally, forcing users to flick to the right or left, or side scroll using a mouse, which is again a foreign motion for most users on a non-touchscreen device. There is one way to get to a screen that looks like a desktop, but it is missing the "start" button in the taskbar, which normally serves as the gateway to all of the computer's functions. By removing the start button, the fake desktop basically loses its primary purpose.

????There has been loads of criticism about the usability of the operating system. For example, it takes three or four steps to simply shut down the computer. Important menus like "control panel" and others simply don't exist, with their functions spread out all over the floating tiles. So besides being different, the new operating system also looks inefficient. Naturally, Microsoft feels differently. "Throughout the history of computing, people have again and again adapted to new paradigms and interaction methods—even just when switching between different websites and apps and phones," Steven Sinofsky, president of the Windows and Windows Live Division at Microsoft, wrote in an extensive blog post on the history of Windows. "We will help people get off on the right foot, and we have confidence that people will quickly find the new paradigms to be second-nature."

????To be fair, Microsoft was smart to develop a tablet-based operating system, but it just seems to have jumped the gun a bit. While the PC market is expected to move eventually to being touch based, the transition has barely begun and is expected to take several years to make its way through the market. The company will be launching Windows 8 on a number of touchscreen mobile phones as well as on their own tablet PC, the Microsoft Surface, which will be the first Windows-based computer to be designed by Microsoft.

????Touchscreen phones and tablets are ideal launching pads for Windows 8, but forcing the operating system down the throats of PC users now, when 99% are not using touchscreen PCs, seems like a mistake. That's because the frustration users are likely to experience using Windows 8 on their PC could cause them to shun Windows 8 phones and the Surface. The fear here is that those "Live tiles" could give users the digital equivalent of PTSD, making them run in horror every time they see them.

????That would be a shame because Windows 8 isn't bad running on touchscreen devices. Starting in a distant third position behind Apple and Google on the mobile platform, Microsoft needs Windows 8 to launch flawlessly if it intends on grabbing market share from either company in that critical growth market. It's hard to see how that can happen given all the negative comments that have floated up from IT professionals who have been using the pre-launch version of Windows 8 for nearly a year. The general consensus seems to be that Windows 8 would be best restricted to touchscreen devices, but that seems impossible now with the product launch only a month away.

????Windows and MS Office may not be the best software in their respective fields, but they are comfortable and familiar to users, like an old glove or a sip of Coke. The Coca-Cola Company took a drumming when it took away that comfort and familiarity from consumers back in 1985 with the launch of "New Coke." But the company eventually relented, reintroducing its old formula alongside the new one three months later, calling it "Coca-Cola Classic."

????Microsoft would be wise to learn from Coca-Cola's experience and should have a contingency plan ready allowing early adopters of Windows 8 to downgrade back to Windows 7 in case mass hysteria breaks out. A Microsoft spokeswoman told Fortune that companies that buy the Enterprise edition of Windows 8 will be able to downgrade to Windows 7 and that everyday consumers can get a refund on Windows 8 within the first 30 days of purchase if the software was bought from the Microsoft store.

????If Microsoft can address user concerns before they panic, then Windows 8 may survive and grow strong among touchscreen devices. In the Coca-Cola case, the damage was irreparable, forcing the company to kill New Coke. The stakes in this case are much higher for Microsoft. Killing Windows 8 just because it's a bit ahead of its time would not only be a massive waste of resources, but could also set Microsoft back so far in the race to control the mobile market that it might never catch up to its competitors, leaving it trapped in the PC forever.