阿里巴巴IPO：對投資者來說這是一筆“撿漏”的買賣
聚焦阿里巴巴上市專題
· 阿里上千員工或分得人均數千萬財富
· 阿里的收購野心及其背后的風險
· 阿里巴巴能從亞馬遜和谷歌的IPO中借鑒什么
· 硅谷怎么看阿里巴巴？
· 阿里巴巴IPO：對投資者來說這是一筆“撿漏”的買賣
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????阿里巴巴（Alibaba）的IPO很可能火爆異常，但投資者仍有撿到便宜的機會。 ????換言之：阿里巴巴可能是中國的亞馬遜（Amazon），但不會成為IPO市場的下一個Facebook。（給那些忘性大的人提個醒，Facebook在IPO后的表現可不怎么樣。） ????上周，紐約大學（New York University）金融學教授、交易估值專家阿斯沃斯?達摩達蘭針對阿里巴巴股票估值發表了一篇分析文章。達摩達蘭通常認為，大部分火爆的華爾街IPO交易都估值過高。 ????比如，十年前，達摩達蘭就表示，谷歌（Google）股價超過40美元就不劃算了。而這家搜索引擎巨頭的IPO定價為每股100美元，比達摩達蘭建議上限的兩倍還多。至于Facebook，他曾表示公允價格是28美元。而這家社交網絡公司的實際IPO價格是38美元（但上市后該股迅速下跌至18美元附近）。對于Twitter，達摩達蘭給出的價格是18美元，其實際IPO價格為26美元。 ????那么，達摩達蘭認為阿里巴巴的股票價值幾何呢？一反往常，達摩達蘭給出的價格為66美元，處于華爾街投行為阿里巴巴建議的IPO定價區間60-66美元的上限。因此，至少在達摩達蘭看來，通過IPO認購股票的投資者最差也只是付出了該公司應有的價格。他們甚至可能還會賺一點。 ????并不是每個人都認同這一點。雅虎（Yahoo）股東看起來有些擔心。我的同事肖恩?杜利表示，投資者應當“避開”阿里巴巴的IPO。以66美元的價格計算，該公司的市盈率將達到41倍（基于截至今年3月份的上一財年數據計算），顯著高于標普500指數成份股公司19倍的平均市盈率。看起來夠貴的？那可不一定。 ????市盈率和股票估值通常與公司的成長性有很大關系。公司成長性越好，股票獲得的市盈率就越高。阿里巴巴正在高速增長。截至6月份的季度收益同比激增了200%。將利潤增長因素考慮在內，阿里巴巴的靜態市盈率將降至29倍，低于另一家中國互聯網公司騰訊（Tencent）47倍的市盈率。 |
????Alibaba’s IPO might turn out to be the rare hot, hyped Wall Street deal that’s also a bargain. ????Put another way: Alibaba might be the Amazon of China, but it won’t be the next Facebook of the IPO market. (Facebook’s IPO, for those who don’t remember. didn’t go so well.) ????Last week, AswathDamodaran, a finance professor at New York University and recognized guru when it comes to valuing deals, published an analysis of what investors should pay for Alibaba’s shares. Damodaran typically thinks that most hot Wall Street IPOs are overpriced. ????Ten years ago, for instance, Damodaran said investors shouldn’t pay more than $40 for shares of Google . The search giant IPOed for more than twice that, at $100. For Facebook , he said a fair price was $28. The social network’s IPO price was $38. (Although the stock quickly plummeted to nearly $18.) For Twitter , Damodaran’s price was $18. It IPOed at $26. ????So what does Damodaran think Alibaba’s share should be worth? More than Wall Street thinks, for a switch. Damodaran’s price is $66, which is at the high end of the $60-to-$66 IPO range that Wall Street has set for Alibaba. So, at least according to Damodaran, the worst investors who get shares in the IPO will do is pay what the company is worth. They might even get a slight deal. ????Not everyone agrees. Yahoo shareholders seem wary. My Fortune colleague Shawn Tully says investors should “stay away” from Alibaba’s IPO. At $66, the company’s shares would have a price-to-earnings ratio (based on its last fiscal year, which ended in March) of 41. That’s considerably higher than the average P/E of 19 of companies on the S&P 500. Seems expensive? Maybe not. ????Price-to-earnings multiples and stock valuations in general have a lot to do with how fast a company is growing. The faster a company is growing, the higher the p/e it receives. Alibaba is growing fast. Its earnings in the three months ending in June jumped 200% from the same period a year ago. Factor those profits in, and Alibaba’s p/e drops to 29. That’s less than fellow Chinese Internet companyTencent, which focuses on online games and trades for 47 times trailing earnings. |
