????到了2022年，CEO們需要管理大量復雜的信息，從顧客和員工的微博（或是2022年的別的什么東西），到數十億臺手機、傳感器以及其它設備生成的各種數據。擅于管理和發(fā)掘這些數據的企業(yè)才是能掙到大錢的企業(yè)。

????西班牙媒體公司ImpreMedia的副總裁約瑟?洛扎諾指出，忽視信息、尤其是忽視社交媒體的聲音的企業(yè)，很可能會陷入危機。“不具有前瞻性的企業(yè)將在競爭中陷入被動。”

????如果說未來企業(yè)的成功將有賴于精通科技且多少有些桀驁不遜的年輕信息達人，那么美國仍將保持領袖地位。因為年輕人在西歐、日本和俄羅斯已經成了一種稀缺商品，甚至在中國也不例外，因為中國人口預計將從2020年開始進入負增長，這意味著屆時將出現大量退休人口，而社會上缺乏足夠的工齡人口來贍養(yǎng)他們。另外這些國家也存在社會動蕩的危險，政府的腐敗是導致動蕩的導火索之一，它很可能抑制這些國家的長期經濟發(fā)展。而美國的政治和經濟制度則非常具有彈性。FTI的諾蘭稱：“誠然，美國也存在很多的挑戰(zhàn)，但是和其它國家面臨的情況相比，美國面臨的挑戰(zhàn)還是可以克服的。”

????最令預測人士感到擔憂的，則是那些有能力毀城滅國，或是將國家?guī)霊?zhàn)爭的風險，它們深藏不露，悄然迫近。伊朗、朝鮮等所謂“流氓國家”仍會不時展示力量。令分析人士擔心的還有那些不惜在大城市部署核武器或生化設備的恐怖份子。另外，有能力扳倒政府的網絡襲擊也是一個隱憂。

????到了2022年，企業(yè)面臨的最大的安全問題當然是網絡犯罪。安全性公司Mandiant的CEO凱文?曼迪亞表示，如今來自中國的黑客經常入侵美國企業(yè)的網絡搜尋知識產權或貿易機密。他補充道：“我最大的擔心是，中國10年內就能生產我們能夠生產的所有商品，但價格只有我們的一半——因為他們偷走了我們所有的創(chuàng)新技術。”

????如果曼迪亞的預言成真，那么未來的創(chuàng)新人士必須花更大的力氣，跟山寨廠商們拉開相當的距離才行。拿蘋果公司、DARPA和其它企業(yè)或機構來說，他們發(fā)明的產品和服務必須相當具有吸引力，以至于沒有人想去買山寨貨。換句話說，他們必須發(fā)明未來。

????譯者：樸成奎

????The CEO of 2022 will have to manage a complex business of far-flung inputs, from customers' and employees' tweets (or the 2022 equivalent) to all kinds of data persistently emitted from billions of phones, sensors, and other connected machines. Companies that can manage and mine all those bits and bytes stand to make a killing.

????Those who ignore information, especially voices coming over the social-media transom, do so at their peril, says Jose Lozano, vice chair of the Hispanic news company ImpreMedia: "Companies that aren't proactive will be at a competitive disadvantage."

????If the winning companies of the future will depend on young, tech-savvy, somewhat impertinent information junkies, the U.S. will still rule. Youth is a scarce commodity in Western Europe, Japan, and Russia. So, too, with China, where a population decline expected to kick in after 2020 means a surge of retirees without enough workers to support them. Nor are those countries immune from social unrest, fueled in part by government corruption that threatens to hold back long-term economic growth. America's political and economic systems, on the other hand, are remarkably resilient. "There are challenges to be sure, but in the context of what other countries are facing, ours are ones that can be met," says FTI's Nolan.

????What worries forecasters most are the black swans -- looming, below-the-surface dangers with the power to devastate nations or plunge countries into war. The bad state actors of today -- Iran, North Korea -- will still flex their muscles, but analysts also fear rogue terrorists who won't hesitate to deploy a nuclear or chemical device on a major city. Cyberattacks that bring down governments are also a worry.

????Cybercrime certainly is the biggest security issue corporations will face in 2022. Today an army of hackers in China routinely scour the networks of U.S. corporations in search of intellectual property and trade secrets, says Kevin Mandia, CEO of security firm Mandiant. He adds, "My biggest fear is that in 10 years China will be making everything we were making -- for half the price -- because they've stolen all our innovations."

????If Mandia is right, the innovators of tomorrow will have to work that much harder to stay a few steps ahead of the copycats. Like Apple (AAPL), DARPA, and others, they'll have to invent products and services that are so coveted that few will want to buy a knockoff. In other words, they'll have to invent the future.